Fighting Irish will bounce back against Louisville
November 18, 2014 3:00 AM
by Doc's Sports
Heading into Week 12 of the college football season with a 17-15-1 overall record in our picks for GamingToday, Doc’s Sports posted a 1-2 record in this past Saturday’s selections to remain slightly above .500 on the year.
We took the bait on Temple in last Saturday’s 30-13 loss to Penn State as a 9.5-point road underdog and South Florida failed to cover as a 10-point road favorite in a tight 14-13 victory against SMU in our two losses last week. The lone winner was an overtime thriller between Air Force and Nevada with the Falcons coming away with a 45-38 victory as one-point home favorites.
Here are this week’s selections:
Take WISCONSIN -9 over Iowa: The Badgers put themselves in the driver seat to win the Big Ten West Division title after trouncing Nebraska 59-24 this past Saturday as five-point home favorites. They have now won their last five games straight-up while covering against the spread in their last four contests.
Expect Wisconsin to come into this matchup with a “take no prisoner’s attitude” against a team it has beaten four out of the last six meetings considering how much is at stake in this game. Iowa will look to play the role of spoiler in this matchup to keep its outside chances of winning the West Division alive at 4-2 in conference play. The problem is that the Hawkeyes could have a tough time matching-up against the Badgers in this one.
Iowa will have its hands full trying to slow down Wisconsin’s powerful ground game considering some of the past issues it has had against some of the better teams in the Big Ten. Just two weeks ago, Iowa was slammed by Minnesota 51-14 as a 1.5-point road favorite.
Take NOTRE DAME -3.5 over Louisville: In just a few short weeks, the Fighting Irish have gone from being legitimate contenders for the national playoffs to hanging on for their dear life to stay in the Top 25. Following a sloppy 55-31 loss to Arizona State as a three-point road underdog, Notre Dame blew an early lead against Northwestern in this past Saturday’s stunning 43-40 overtime loss to Northwestern as a 17-point home favorite.
The third time will be the charm as the Irish get their act together this Saturday in South Bend. The Cardinals just wrapped-up their first run through the ACC as the conference’s newest member with a 5-3 SU record. They are 7-3 overall this season with a 6-4 record ATS.
Louisville has done a good job at holding its own against the better teams it has faced this season, with tough losses to both Clemson and Florida State, but it comes into this game with a new starter at quarterback after Will Gardner went down with an injury. That will be tough to overcome on the road against a very testy Notre Dame squad.
Take FRESNO ST. +8 over Nevada: Fresno State is just 3-3 in the MWC West standings, but a win this Saturday night would put the Bulldogs in excellent shape to earn a spot in the conference title game by winning this division. They went into last week’s bye fresh off a 38-24 victory against San Diego State as one-point home underdog, so the confidence level is running high.
The Bulldogs have now covered in five of their last seven games including a strong showing against Boise State as 18-point underdogs on the road. The Wolf Pack are also 3-3 in the MWC West following the loss to Air Force, which snapped a three-game winning streak both SU and ATS.
One of the main reasons we are going against Nevada again this week is their recent betting trends in this series. Both teams are closely matched on the field, but Fresno State comes in with a 6-2 record ATS in its last eight road games against the Wolf Pack. The Bulldogs are also 9-5-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings overall.
Last week: 1-2
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