Nevada should take care of Fresno State just like UNLV did last weekend
October 04, 2016 3:06 AM
by Doc's Sports
Last week’s top three picks for GamingToday resulted in an even 1-1-1 record with a win, a loss and a push. Georgia Tech failed to cover as a 6.5-point home underdog in a 35-21 loss to Miami, while Wisconsin ended up on the wrong end of a 14-7 loss to Michigan as a 10.5-point underdog cover on the road.
The push on the day was Penn State’s tight 29-26 victory against Minnesota as a 3-point favorite at home. Following a strong start, that leaves us at 6-8-1 through the first five weeks.
Here are this week’s selections:
Take NEVADA (-9.5) over Fresno State: Nevada comes into this Mountain West tilt with back-to-back losses to Purdue and Hawaii on the road both straight-up and against the spread, and it is now 2-3 SU on the year with a 1-4 record ATS. The main reason we do like the Wolf Pack this Saturday night is the way they have been able to play at home in recent games. They currently have a SU five-game winning streak at Mackay Stadium with a 4-1 record ATS.
The Bulldogs fell to 1-4 SU (1-3 ATS) with last Saturday’s 45-20 loss to UNLV as 9-point road underdogs. They have now lost 10 of their last 11 road games SU and are a very costly 1-9 ATS in their last 10 away. Fresno State is ranked 100th in the nation in scoring with an average of 23.8 points a game and its defense falls to 114th in points allowed; giving up an average of 38.2 ppg.
Take SAN DIEGO ST (-14.5) over UNLV: Staying in the Mountain West, San Diego State is off to a 3-1 SU (1-2-1 ATS) start but coming off a 42-24 loss to South Alabama this past Saturday as heavy 19-point road favorites. Following one of their worst outings in recent memory, look for the Aztecs to quickly turn things around behind a rushing offense that is averaging 234.8 yards a game. They may have been looking past last week’s opponent heading into this Saturday’s conference opener, but do not expect them to be asleep at the wheel this time around.
Give credit to the Rebels for last week’s win against Fresno State in their MWC season opener, but this is still a team that is allowing an average of 30.4 points a game. They are a respectable 2-3 SU (3-2 ATS) on the year, including a cover against UCLA in a 42-21 loss in Week 2 as heavy 27-point road underdogs. The concern for UNLV is a current five-game SU losing streak on the road while going 1-4 ATS.
Take OREGON ST. (+12.5) over California: Oregon State opened play in the Pac-12 in rough fashion with a 47-6 loss to Colorado as a 17.5-point road underdog. The Beavers’ lone win of the season against three losses was a 37-7 victory over Idaho State in Week 3 as heavy 39-point home favorites. The reason we do expect this game to be closer than the 12.5-point spread is Oregon State’s recent track record against the Golden Bears on its home field. The Beavers are 6-3 ATS in their last nine home games against Cal.
California has won three of its first five games both SU and ATS after getting past Utah this past Saturday, 29-23, as a slight 2-point home underdog.
Cal will now have to go on the road with a 2-5 record ATS in its last seven road games.
The Golden Bears have already lost to San Diego State and Arizona State on the road this season as underdogs and while they should probably beat Oregon State SU, this game is going to be much closer than the current 12.5-point betting spread might suggest.
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