Taking Fresno State +13 against a struggling Air Force team

Taking Fresno State +13 against a struggling Air Force team

October 25, 2016 3:07 AM


Last week’s top three picks for GamingToday started on a down note with Buffalo’s 44-7 loss to Northern Illinois as a 20-point underdog. We turned things around when Arizona State was able to cover in a 37-32 loss to Washington, but our record on the week went below .500 when Oklahoma could not cover the 13.5-point spread in a 66-59 victory against Texas Tech.

Here are this week’s selections:

Take FRESNO STATE (+13) over Air Force: The Bulldogs come into this Mountain West clash with a six-game straight-up losing streak that just cost Tim DeRuyter his job as head coach, but they have managed to cover against the spread in four of their last five, including this past Saturday’s 38-20 loss to Utah State as a heavy 20.5-point road underdog. Fresno State has been able to keep the majority of its games much closer than expected and that should be the case again this Friday night.

Air Force is just 8-17 ATS in its last 25 road games and that trend has held true with road losses in two of their last three, both SU and ATS. This past Saturday, the Falcons came out completely flat at home in a stunning 34-27 loss to Hawaii as 16-point favorites. This followed SU losses to Wyoming and New Mexico on the road as double-digit favorites as well.

Take WAKE FOREST (-7.5) over Army: Wake Forest is coming off a bye week following a solid effort against Florida State in a 17-6 loss on Oct. 15 as a heavy 24-point road underdog. The Demon Deacons are 5-2 SU this season and they have been able to cover the spread in three of their last four games. One of the main reasons for this season’s success has been a shutdown defense that is allowing an average of just 17.9 points a game.

The Black Knights have stumbled to a 1-3 record both SU and ATS in their last four games with this past Saturday’s 35-18 loss to North Texas as heavy 17.5-point favorites at home. In their last road game against an ACC foe, they lost to Duke, 13-6, as six-point underdogs, and going back over their last 21 games on the road they are just 3-18 SU. Army has one of the top rushing attacks in the nation, but it lacks balance with a passing game that is averaging just 82.9 yards a game.

Take ARIZONA (+7) over Stanford: The Wildcats are off to a 0-4 start in Pac-12 play while going 1-3 ATS, but the one game they did cover was a hard-fought 35-28 loss to Washington as 17-point home underdogs, which is arguably one of the top teams in the nation. Arizona has a great chance to win this game SU at home behind the play of quarterback Brandon Dawkins, who also leads the team in rushing. He missed his last start against USC with a concussion, but he is listed as probable for Saturday night.

Things have gone from bad to worse for Stanford following this past Saturday’s 10-5 loss to Colorado as a slight 1.5-point home favorite. The Cardinal are now just 1-3 (SU and ATS) in their last four games following a promising 3-0 start. Their offense has basically ground to a halt with an average of just 11 points during this four-game stretch. Stanford’s once powerful run game has averaged less than three yards a carry in three of those four games.

Last week: 1-2

Season: 11-12-1

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