Look for a shootout in Wyoming against Utah State; SDSU to roll Hawaii
November 01, 2016 3:05 AM
by Doc's Sports
The 2016 college football season rolls into the month of November and Doc’s Sports Service continues another successful ride as a recognized leader and trusted name in sports handicapping since 1971.
Looking back at last week’s top three picks for Gaming Today, we got off to a fast start on Friday with Fresno State covering as a 13-point home underdog in a 31-21 loss to Air Force. Saturday’s two games went off the rails with Wake Forest losing to Army 21-13 as a 7.5-point favorite and Arizona failing to cover as a seven-point underdog in a 34-10 loss to Stanford.
Here are this week’s selections:
Take MIAMI, FL -3.5 over Pittsburgh: The Hurricanes come into this ACC Coastal Division clash with four losses in a row both straight-up and against the spread in what was a brutal stretch of games that included Florida State at home and a hot Virginia Tech on the road. They have won four of the last five meetings against Pitt both SU and ATS including a big win last season as seven-point road underdogs. Miami is 4-2 ATS this season when it closes as a favorite.
The Panthers are 5-3 SU on the year, but they fall to 3-5 ATS. They battled Virginia Tech to the bitter end in last Thursday’s 39-36 loss as 3.5-point home underdogs and this could open the door to a letdown on the road. Pitt’s defense has now allowed at least 30 points in six of its last seven games.
Take UTAH STATE +7 over Wyoming: The Aggies are coming off a 40-13 loss to San Diego State as 4.5-point home underdogs to fall to 3-5 SU with a 1-4 record in the Mountain West. While this does not help to build a ton of confidence their ability to keep this game closer than seven points, the Aggies do come into this MWC contest with a perfect 4-0 record both SU and ATS in the last four games against the Cowboys.
The main reason we love this play is Wyoming’s huge 30-28 upset over Boise State this past Saturday as a heavy 15-point home underdog. At 4-0 both SU and ATS in conference play. This sets the stage for a possible letdown this Saturday night. The Cowboys have averaged 36.3 points a game during this current run, but they have also allowed an average of 29.3 over their last three games. Look for a shootout in Wyoming that will be closer than the touchdown spread.
Take SAN DIEGO ST -21 over Hawaii: San Diego State’s victory at Utah State improved the overall record to 7-1 SU including 4-2 ATS the last six games. The Aztecs appear to be the class of the Mountain West this season and headed towards a showdown against the winner of the Mountain Division in this season’s conference championship. Running back Donnel Pumphrey leads a ground game that is ranked ninth in the nation and this defense is 10th in points allowed (17.0).
Hawaii is a respectable 3-2 (SU and ATS) in the MWC this season, but coming off an unexpected 28-21 loss to New Mexico as a three-point home favorite. Behind a pedestrian offense that is averaging 228.9 yards a game through the air, it is doubtful the Warriors will have the necessary firepower to keep this game closer than the 21-point spread. The bigger concern would have to be a defense that is allowing an average of 36.3 points a game.
Season record: 12-14-1
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