Anticipating line move my formula for making sports wagers
October 10, 2017 3:00 AM
by Bill Krackomberger
Anyone can follow Don Best, Sports Options or any line service to view live lines. That isn’t hard.
The genius is knowing or anticipating where that line is going. But you have to know what you’re looking at. For example, for someone like me, it is so easy to manipulate the market. I was interviewed for a story a few years back and I asked the reporter to pick any overnight game on the college basketball schedule. He picked a game involving George Mason and James Madison.
George Mason was favored by two points. I then went on to bet George Mason for $1,000 at two key sportsbooks and $500 at another key sportsbook.
The line instantly moved to -2.5 and -3 at the books I bet and then every single sportsbook in the world copied that move and were also -3 in a matter of seconds. Now comes the fun part. The real side I wanted was James Madison +3. After “dummying” the line to +3, I was able to get a lot more money on them as all the other sportsbooks copied the key books’ line move.
So in the end it›s going to cost me $2,500 in juice (house vig) to move the line and get an extra point on the game. As long as I placed enough money down on the other side it’s mathematically (and financially) worth it, especially the smaller the line is. In other words, I wouldn’t be manipulating a double digit game because the larger numbers do not land as often.
When I say “key sportsbooks” what I mean is they are major books that every other one in the world use as a guide to set and move their own lines.
Before the invention of the internet, sportsbooks would run independently of each other and move their lines on their own action (bets taken). Unfortunately, that doesn’t happen anymore and they don’t have to take a bet to move the lines. They can just follow a live odds screen and move their lines on air (not taking a bet) as we say, just copying the key sportsbook’s moves.
However, that is not always the correct thing to do when you have people like me and other sharp groups out there that can manipulate lines. If I was running a book I would want to know who bet the games, and can adjust my number based on my opinion of that bettor. This way I know in the future exactly what to do with that game when that person makes a wager again.
Unfortunately, many of these sportsbooks have huge corporations behind them and the sportsbook management has to run things like they are told.
This reminds me of the romantic age of Vegas years ago. There was nothing like the times when you could just hang out on the corner of Las Vegas Blvd. and Flamingo Road and in 15 minutes get a plethora of different lines (Barbary Coast, Ballys, Caesars, Bellagio and Bourbon Street). Of course, I understand you can go back earlier than that with places like Little Caesars, Aladdin and the Maxim, too.
Anyway, that’s a day and age that can never be again.
Let me leave you with a few games for the weekend. By the way, it is so hard to give out quality plays so early in the week, however, these are all plays I put down my own money on, too, not just a play for the sake of a play.
Selections: (correction submitted at 8:30 a.m. to 136)
135 Rutgers +2
142 Indiana +5.5
148 Louisville -21
Last week: 0-1