We're high on Auburn, Badgers to hoist trophies

We're high on Auburn, Badgers to hoist trophies

November 28, 2017 3:00 AM
by

The college football regular season comes to a close in Week 14 with a number of conference titles on the line in championship games.

In a quick recap of last weekend’s picks we started with Missouri failing to cover as a 14.5-point favorite in Friday’s tight 48-45 victory against Arkansas. We quickly turned things around on Saturday with the correct play on Stanford’s 38-20 upset against Notre Dame as a 2.5-point underdog followed by Fresno State’s 28-17 upset against Boise State getting seven points at home.

Last week: 2-1

Season: 21-17-1

Here are the three selections for the final week of Doc’s free picks:

Take 319 Akron (+19.5)

over Toledo

The Zips earned a spot in the Mid-American Conference Championship with a straight-up 6-2 record in the East Division as part of an overall record of 7-5. They went 7-4-1 against the spread with the total staying UNDER in 10 of the 12 games behind a defense that allowed an average of 24.8 points per game. Akron closed out the regular season with a 3-1 run both SU and ATS following a 48-21 loss to Toledo on Oct. 21 as 15-point road underdogs.

Toledo won the MAC’s West Division title at 7-1 SU in conference play. It was 10-2 SU overall with a 7-5 record ATS. The Rockets are clearly the best team in this conference given a high level of consistency on both sides of the ball, but beating a good team twice in one season while also covering as heavy double-digit favorites is always a tall task. Look for Toledo to take home the 2017 MAC Championship this Saturday afternoon with the SU victory, but it is going to be a much close game than the oddsmakers are expecting in light of the current spread.

Take 322 Auburn (-3)

over Georgia

Auburn has high motivation and a ton of momentum on its side heading into Saturday’s rematch against the Bulldogs for the 2017 SEC title. The Tigers completely dominated Alabama last Saturday 26-14 in the Iron Bowl as 5-point underdogs at home and the memory of that recent 40-17 beatdown of Georgia as 2.5-point home underdogs is still fresh in their minds.

Georgia already knows what it is up against heading into Atlanta for this rematch, but we are not all that confident it will be able to change the eventual outcome this time around. The game should remain much closer given what is on the line, but in the end the Bulldogs will not be able to keep things closer than three points. Revenge is still a big factor, but Auburn has already proven that it is the better overall team on both sides of the ball.

Take 328 Wisconsin +6

over Ohio State

The Badgers are just one of two Division I-A teams with a perfect record in the regular season and the only one from a Power 5 conference. They went 12-0 SU with an 8-4 record ATS after covering in five of their last six games. This will be the first time this season they have been opened as underdogs. Wisconsin has always been known for its power running game and shutdown defense, but sophomore quarterback Alex Hornibrook could play a major role in his team’s chances to win this game SU.

Ohio State is back in position to possibly earn a playoff spot with a victory on Saturday night, but the spread in this game is set to attract money the other way in a game between two evenly matched ball clubs playing the Big Ten title game at a neutral site. We are not sold on the Buckeyes being the best team in this conference and previous blowout losses to Oklahoma early in the season and Iowa in early November bears this out.