Time to retreat getting deeper in Dance
March 20, 2018 3:00 AM
by Bill Krackomberger
Do you know how good you have to be at this time of the year to win?
Let me rephrase that – do you know how lucky you have to be at this time of the year?
Last Thursday, the outcome of 10 of the 16 games versus the spread came down to the last basket. That continued throughout the tournament. That is how good the linemaker is at this time of the year.
Just like I said on ESPN, “as the tournament goes deeper and deeper, I will bet less and less.” The more games these teams play, the less predictable they become. This is not to say I will not have any action in the Sweet 16. However, my unit size will be reduced even more than it was last week. In addition, bet selection will be reduced to just a few bets here and there.
I look forward to seeing these scrappy teams of Nevada and Loyola Chicago face off. I lean toward the dog in this type of matchup. I also like Kansas State versus Kentucky for my strongest play. I am heading to the Wynn shortly to take +6.5. Taking +6 is OK though, as long as you do not take 5.5. Some people who follow do this; and it is a shame when someone like myself gets a win and someone else gets a loss that follows me on the same exact game.
I will also be on Texas A&M +3. I usually do not bet on teams that come off of big performances. Beating North Carolina was a big game for them. However, they will have all week to think about it and get refocused for this game.
There also may be second half opportunities. Watch the games carefully and the game flow and pace. Watch to see who looks like the aggressor and shot selection; see which teams’ key players are in foul trouble. These are all determining factors for betting second halves.
Just remember what I said at the beginning of the article, if the same games were being played out two months ago, my bet size per game would be about double or even triple what it is now.
Further, the angle of the Cinderella first half underdogs I talked about last week is over. That is only a good strategy in first rounds on the relatively unknown teams. And as you know that worked out very well again.
Baseball is around the corner. I am happy to report I will also be talking about some angles for baseball betting here in GamingToday.