Passing on Final Four, but backing NIT Final Four
March 27, 2018 3:00 AM
by Bill Krackomberger
I do not have any selections on the two remaining NCAA games as I think the lines are perfect. In the NIT, I will be betting Western Kentucky and Mississippi State. However, like I said last week, my unit size is about 1/3 of what it was in December.
People who are close to me and you readers know I am betting less now that the season is coming to a close. I do not do this to gamble or just to have action. I bet to make a living and I refuse to be like most others out there throwing darts at a board with marketing scams, hiding under fake names in shabby little cubicles. I am very happy to say I am up over 40 units on the college basketball season with a current 140-88 mark.
Baseball will start out a little slow, as my model needs two pitching rotations before it can kick in for my larger bets.
In addition, I would only play at the casinos that have a 10-cent line. What that means, for example, is when team A is -130, then team B should be +120. That is a 10-cent line. Then as we get into the larger favorites, the line widens and goes to, as an example, -180/+165, then settling on -220/+200.
It is hard to believe some of these joints have tried to squeeze the customers by widening the line over the last few years. As long as you continue to patronize these places, they will continue to try to squeeze you more and more. There are still a few good places around town that have 10-cent lines.
Keep your eye on the opening overnight lines compared to game time prices. Especially the overnight totals. The totals market is definitely softer than betting sides. This is why the bookmakers charge -110 each way when betting a total.
Also, the first five-inning line is -110 each way. There are plenty of good opportunities to make money betting the first five innings. You get a pure pitcher versus pitcher line. Usually both starters will go more than five innings.
As previously stated, I usually do not start seriously betting until about week three. If you do a little reading and keep up with the starting pitcher stats, that will help you with the first five innings. You may have to look deeper into it by actually watching a few games to see how exactly the pitchers looked over the first few innings.
I love doing this, as baseball season is my favorite time of the year. If you grew up anywhere on the east coast, then you know there is nothing like going to a ballpark with a dog and a beer, watching a game! Not that you west coast guys do not know; Petco Park in SD is my favorite place to go for a game.