Trust your own opinion when betting college hoops

Trust your own opinion when betting college hoops

December 07, 2018 7:18 AM
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Whether you bet several college basketball games on a daily basis or just a few per week, there really is no right or wrong when it comes to the methodology of a hoops bettor.

However, a handicapper who thinks he has a true long-term advantage over the bookmaker is more likely to play many, if not nearly all, the games - at least a side or total - on a particular NCAA betting card, especially if their own power ratings are proving to be slightly ahead of other experts, including fellow gamblers.

But that shouldn’t discourage true basketball experts from exploiting their own sharp opinions when zeroing in on a particular matchup. It’s just that those who limit their focus aren’t likely to see the results you deserve due to the wild spread variance associated with the college game.

In fact, those high-volume bettors are likely wagering smaller amounts than you might expect from a professional trader. Remember, many of the sharpest players are often betting into the earliest lines with the lowest limits.

A strong eye-test ‘capper still can have an edge over the busy bookmaker but could be missing out on the opportunity to exploit their advantage even further.

Worse yet are sharp handicappers who frequently pass, even for days, making up reasons while both sides could or couldn’t win or cover a particular matchup, even when the spread may have shifted several points throughout the day. Concerning yourself with the variance in a short-term losing streak is akin to conceding to the man.

Thursday

Iowa State (Pick) at Iowa: The Hawkeyes may receive a downgrade off of Monday night’s 22-point loss at Michigan State as a 10.5-point ‘dog. Iowa is just 2-5 ATS at home so far and is getting more respect in the latest polls. IOWA STATE

Friday

TCU vs. USC (+2): These teams meet in the Hall of Fame Classic at Staples Center, the Horned Frogs will be coming into this game off a late contest at SMU on Wednesday, while the Trojans haven’t played since last Saturday. USC

Arizona State (157) vs. Nevada: In the HOF nightcap at Staples, undefeated squads meet as the hot Sun Devils meet event headliner Nevada, which knocked off USC, 73-61, here in L.A. last Saturday. UNDER

Saturday

Notre Dame (150) at UCLA: Although the Bruins’ only losses were to Michigan State and North Carolina, they’ll start to play some teams that aren’t ranked near the 200s like the rest of their foes to-date. UCLA has scored at least 80 points in every game. OVER

Sunday

Gonzaga (160) vs. Tennessee: The teams met in 2015 and 2016, as the ‘Zags won both. The now top-ranked Bulldogs are no spread secret with a 7-1 ATS and 7-1 mark to the Over coming in off a matchup at home with Washington on Wednesday. OVER

Last week: 3-2-1

Season: 10-9-1