Everyone thinks they're a betting expert in March
March 20, 2019 3:00 AM
by Bill Krackomberger
One of my favorite Frank Sinatra songs is fitting for this moment – "Come Dance With Me."
This is the best (wagering wise) March Madness of all time. With the new wave of legalized gambling across the country that has gone mainstream, everyone seems to think they can become a successful sports bettor.
It means that there is a lot more square money in the marketplace. The kids that grew up watching their heroes playing on the field now see them in the booth or on their favorite sport show predicting what they think will be the outcome of the games. Many times against the Vegas spread.
However, most of the time, they know nothing about actually winning money, betting on sports.
The way I look at the tournament is to wait before betting against big-name marquee teams at the softer-lined sportsbooks. (Station, Boyd, Wynn and William Hill) There should be some juicy opportunities on the day of the games.
However, there are certain games that I like to bet before the day of the game. I also like to bet some of these games first-half only. I think there is nothing worse than losing a game because of some garbage fouls at the end; the first half is a pure line.
This is also the week I seem to get calls from my friends who only wager once or twice a year on games. I hate giving them any games, because sometimes people want to judge you based on a small sample size of selections rather than an entire season’s worth.
People will actually want to call me and discuss the losing plays. This will usually result in them never getting another selection from me. This situation has also ended with me asking for that person’s address and refunding them their $50 loss.
I also had a few people offer to give me money and bet for them. This is something I also hate doing because I feel more obligated to showing them a return on their investment than my own money. There are many sharks in this business that salivate at opportunities like this, so please, never hand your bankroll to anyone and let them bet it for you.
As we speak, I can find a half-to-full point difference by shopping around town on many games, especially totals.
In addition, look for some added gems on my Twitter feed, as I will post a few as I bet them.
But there are plenty of different numbers, My advice? Shop, shop, shop.
Here are some of the first-round games that I like:
Vermont +6 first half vs. Florida State
Northeastern +7 vs. Kansas
Colgate +10.5 first half vs. Tennessee
North Carolina-Iona over 166 total points
Mississippi State-Liberty under 136 total points
Understand you're not going to hit every single game. Don't overbet your bankroll. Don't whine when you lose.
Finally, Showtime’s new documentary, “Action,” which is about sports betting, begins this Sunday at 8 p.m. Yours truly appears as one of the people they have chosen to follow around town.
I honestly just did on the show what I do every week. I run around town and make bets and grind out a nice living for myself.
It also shows the good, the bad and the ugly side of sports betting. I hope you enjoy it.
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