“It’s not whether you win or lose, but how you play the game.”
I don’t know who first coined that phrase, but I assume it was someone who lost a lot. That said, in the world of sports gambling, where winning is so darn difficult, there are other metrics that let you know whether you are on the right track.
While I don’t win every bet, I am almost always on the right side of the move. If you find yourself consistently on the correct side, the winning will come if you are disciplined over the long term.
To take it a step further, see if the bet you made beats not only the sportsbook where you are placing that bet, but at the major offshore books (Pinnacle, Cris) and/or the major Vegas books (Westgate, Circa). Keep in mind, if you will be placing your bet close to game time at one of these spots because they have the “best line,” over the long term, you are likely going to be on the wrong side of that wager.
Sure, you will win some and lose some. However, laying the -110 will eat up your bankroll and you will be waiting for your next paycheck to try and make another run at it.
If you happen to see me in the books this weekend and I seem a little giddy, that’s because college basketball starts this week.
No sport has put more money in my pocket over the past decade. Unlike college football, college basketball offers over 350 teams on which to bet. The overall volume and plethora of small school games make for the perfect storm of finding edges over and over.
Try to find a bookmaker that would rather book college basketball then NFL or NBA -- you won’t. Bookmakers need to make a dozen to 16 lines each week in the NFL. In the NBA, it can anywhere from 3 to 10 games each night.
But in college basketball, there can be as many as 50-100 games on any given night. The daily grind that comes with college basketball places more pressure on the bookmaker and the volume is too great for them to get it right on every game.
The bottom line is, if you expect to win, you need to be better than the linemaker.
While that is easier said than done, here is a tip. Track the opening lines at one of the originating bookmakers and compare it to their closing line. Keep track and look for patterns that you can use to your advantage.
Also keep a close eye on the “added” or “extra” games. While most of the world is tracking the Kentuckys and Dukes of the world, I am more focused on the Mount St. Marys’ and Jackson States of college basketball — teams with less information, less interest and therefore more of an edge.
There are so many different sets of skills it requires to be a winning gambler — including patience, discipline, will power and the right temperament. I’ve said it 1,000 times — if winning in this game was easy, everyone would do it.
In truth, if it wasn’t for Johnny Public losing on a regular basis and contributing to that overall pool, there wouldn’t be anything for the winners to take out.
I actually want people to win. It was one of the major reasons I started the KrackWins app. I hope you can find some nuggets of information from me and other successful gamblers that, pieced together, will help you end up in the black each year. Keep grinding.