Top pro football betting trends for NFL Week 6

Oct 12, 2013 6:00 AM

Special To Gaming Today

Here are some the top trends heading into Week 6 of the NFL season.

Tampa Bay Bucs: Last 40 home games, never once covered the spread two straight times…4-16 ATS as a home underdog.

Winless teams: Week 6 or later 63% ATS over the last 20 years. (winless teams playing this weekend are Bucs, Jags, Steelers).

Denver Broncos: 13-3 ATS last 16 regular season games (won all 16 straight-up)

Kansas City Chiefs: covered only 1 of last 14 hosting Raiders…. lost 11 straight ATS when favored within the division.

Dallas Cowboys: underdog has covered 72% of Dallas games the last 4 seasons…covered only 5 of last 21 games as a home favorite.

NY Jets: 51-84 ATS as a home favorite (38% last 135)

Detroit Lions: 3-15 ATS as a road favorite

Green Bay Packers: home team has covered 11 of last 12 Packers games

New England Patriots: won 32 of last 35 (straight-up) regular season home games

Oakland Raiders: 18-4 ATS as road underdogs against division opponent

Washington Redskins: Coach Shanahan a perfect 6-0 ATS vs. Coach Garrett (Dallas)

New Orleans Saints: covered 12 of last 13 regular season games under Coach Payton

Seattle Seahawks: 13-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning record… 15-4 ATS last 19 games

Biggest Favorite EVER: Denver is favored by 27 points hosting Jacksonville on Sunday. This is the biggest NFL favorite EVER (with reliable records extending all the way back to 1972). 

Prior biggest favorite: Steelers -26 hosting Bucs (12/5/1976). Pittsburgh won 42-0.

Biggest favorite for 2007 Patriots: New England -24 hosting Eagles (11/25/2007). Pats won 31-28. There have been 8 NFL teams favored by three TDs or more…7 times the underdog covered the spread; only once has the favorite covered.

Over / Under: The projected total in the Denver/Jacksonville game is 53. Vegas is projecting the game’s score to be: Denver 40, Jacksonville 13.

First half: Denver favored by 20. Betting Denver to simply win pays $66 to get $1. Betting Jacksonville to win off $1 bet pays $30.

NFL Props

Denver going 16-0? Yes: $100 wins $500 (No = -600) – implying 16% chance

Jacksonville going 0-16? Yes: $100 wins $600 (No = -700) – implying 14% chance

31% chance Peyton Manning will NOT play past the midway point of the 3rd Quarter vs. Jacksonville ($100 wins $200 if he does NOT)

26% chance Jacksonville will lead at any point in the game against Denver ($100 wins $250 if Jax DOES lead)

21% chance that Matt Schaub throws a “pick-six” this week ($100 wins $350 if he DOES)

$1 pays off $10,000 if Jacksonville wins Super Bowl.

What if:  Denver (with Jacksonville QB Blaine Gabbert) would be favored by 11 hosting Jacksonville (with Peyton Manning)

RJ Bell is the founder of Pregame.com - and co-host of FIRST PREVIEW, heard Monday through Friday at 10 am on ESPN 1100/98.9 FM. Follow on twitter: @RJinVegas. Discussion of this article continues at Pregame.com. Contact RJ at [email protected]

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