Keep riding Nevada this Saturday
October 28, 2014 2:46 AM
by Doc's Sports
Week 9 of the college football season is in the books and Doc’s Sports posted our third-straight 2-1 record in this past Saturday’s top three picks for GamingToday. We are now 14-12-1 on the year following this 6-3 run in our last nine picks.
Looking back at last week’s picks, Stanford was able to cover as a 13.5-point home favorite in a 38-14 victory over Oregon State and Nevada covered a four-point spread as road favorites against Hawaii in a 26-18 win.
We decided to go with Colorado State again this past Saturday and while the Rams handled Wyoming with relative ease in a 45-31 victory, they could not cover the 18.5-point spread at home.
Here are this week’s selections:
MTSU (+7) over Brigham Young: The Blue Raiders bounced back from a 49-24 loss to Marshall as 24-point road underdogs with a solid 34-22 victory over UAB on Oct. 18 as two-point favorites at home to improve to 5-3 both straight-up and against the spread this season.
Win or lose, Middle Tennessee State remains one of the top scoring teams in the nation with an average of 36 points a game. Quarterback Austin Grammer has thrown for 1,893 yards and 11 touchdowns with an impressive completion percentage of 67.4 percent.
Never underestimate the importance of a quality quarterback in college football. BYU was on the fast track up the national rankings with a 4-0 SU start until its quarterback Taysom Hill went down with a season-ending injury. Since that point, the Cougars have dropped their last four games both SU and ATS. They are actually just 2-6 this season ATS after failing to cover in their last six contests. There is no reason to think that anything will change heading into this matchup.
NEVADA (-4.5) over San Diego State: After cashing-in on the Wolf Pack last Saturday, we are going with them again as home favorites in this Saturday night’s Mountain West matchup. They are now 5-3 this season both SU and ATS after the victory against Hawaii. Cody Fajardo only threw for 128 yards in that win, but he added another 133 yards on the ground in 23 rushing attempts. Nevada was able to pile-up 299 rushing yards overall which bodes well for success in this week’s game.
San Diego State is coming off a bye week after posting a 20-10 victory against Hawaii on Oct. 18 as a 10-point home favorite. That “push” left the Aztecs 3-3-1 ATS this season with a SU record of 4-3. The total has stayed “under” in all seven of their games.
All three losses have come on the road as underdogs and San Diego State has just one SU win in its last five road games dating back to last season. This will once again be a factor on Saturday night as the Aztecs are a different team when playing on the road.
UTAH ST. (-2) over Hawaii: Utah State has now won three of its last four games SU with last Saturday’s 34-20 romp over UNLV to improve to 5-3 on the year. While the Aggies failed to cover as heavy 17-point home favorites in that win, they did cover ATS in their previous three outings. The primary strength remains a defense that is allowing an average of 21.9 points a game. This unit has not allowed more than 20 points in its last four contests.
Other than the 38 points the Warriors put up in an early October win over Wyoming, they have not scored more than 18 in four of their last five games. On the year, Hawaii is just 2-6 SU and 1-3-1 ATS in its last five games. The Warriors are ranked 111th in the nation in scoring with an average of 20.6 points a game. In their current form, the Warriors will be hard-pressed to break this trend this Saturday night against their Mountain West foes.
Last week: 2-1
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