Tips on 'live dogs' from Marc Lawrence
July 20, 2017 6:53 AM
by Michelle SportSX
This past week I had the privilege of interviewing Marc Lawrence for a men’s interest magazine. Many of you might know Marc. He’s not only one of the top handicappers in the world, but he’s also the man behind one of the most popular playbooks around.
Lawrence likes follow what he refers to as ‘live dogs’ which are teams that are not favored by odds makers but are ones that you believe have a good chance to win. He calls his strategy the ‘Woody Hayes Theory’ since the legendary Ohio State coach believed in running the ball vs. throwing it. He felt that three good outcomes could come from running as opposed to the one good result with passing,
Lawrence thinks ‘live dogs’ are strategically a better bet. To apply this analogy, he would consider BYU who will face off against LSU in Houston at the early part of the season. In his opinion, BYU has a good chance at winning this game. As of this writing, LSU is favored by double digits so the odds are that BYU might cover.
In other words, they might win the game, or they might come within less than that double-digit margin. In that case if you had bet the game, you would be cashing in a winning ticket.
So when asked what’s the best advice to give a novice (or a professional) bettor, Lawrence explains that you simply want to look at the point spreads and pay attention to teams that you truly feel can win. Not because it is your favorite team mind you, but because you really believe the team has a chance.
So as you gear up for football season, ask yourself if you really think the Giants can win against the Cowboys on Opening Day. Then take a look at the point spread. If the Cowboys are favored by more than five, and you believe the Giants have a chance, you may want to go with the ‘live dog’ as opposed to the favorite. That’s what I’m thinking.
And if you think the Jets have no chance at all in winning their division, regardless of whether you’re a Jets’ fan, you might want to pass, no matter how much money, you could win. It’s just not worth it, when you don’t really think there’s a chance.