Alright, it’s time to tackle one of my favorite times of year, the month of August. Not only was I born in this glorious month but it also brings the beginning of the NFL Preseason, which means we are super close to the regular season.
In a two part series, I will start with breaking down the AFC. Each division, conference and Super Bowl choices, if there is a decent option, with the best numbers I found at the moment.
Shockingly (heavy sarcasm) New England is favored to win AFC East -1200 at Station Casinos. It would be the 14th time in 15 seasons for the Pats. Miami was the lone winner in 2008 when the Patriots went 10-6 with Tom Brady out for the season. Obviously you don’t lay the division price unless you have stacks of cash and even then it’s not worth it. I do like the price, +125 AFC Championship for New England. Super Bowl at 3-1 at William Hill isn’t high enough for me to bother.
If you feel like truly gambling, go with the Bills 16-1 Division at Westgate to break the Patriots streak of eight straight AFC East crowns. Buffalo comes into the year severely underrated. Those that agree with a shot on the division might as well back them for the Super Bowl, 125-1 at William Hill.
The Dolphins come with too much hype for me. I do think they are putting together a talented team but it’s a few years off for me. I don’t think they have enough to win any of these bets, but check out Westgate if you disagree, SB 50-1; AFC 25-1; Div. 8-1.
The Jets have a better chance of winning the CFL Grey Cup than winning five games in 2017.
Call me crazy but I think Pittsburgh has a disastrous year. I am certain the Steelers have minor interest in resigning RB Le’Veon Bell due to contract demands. QB Ben Roethlisberger’s heart isn’t in the game anymore; it’s a pass. Westgate has 12-1 on Super Bowl, 6-1 on AFC, and Station Casinos has Division at -160.
So that brings us to the remaining three. I do think Cleveland surprises people this year going from 1-15 last year to either 6-10 or 7-9. My gut tells me they even shock the Steelers to start 1-0. That said. the Browns aren’t worth a future bet.
The Ravens don’t do anything for me this season. The Bengals have an underrated roster but their offensive line could be really bad. Let’s go with all bets on Cincinnati at William Hill: 75-1, 30-1 and 4-1.
First thing that stands out to me, the Titans numbers. Westgate is 30-1 to win Super Bowl, Station has 17-1 on the AFC, Division is 2-1 at William Hill. Stunning to me, as those numbers are far too low. I see a regression on the horizon for Tennessee. Yes, they can run the ball, they have added more and more toys for QB Marcos Mariota, but I just don’t see them having the coaching staff or the system to stay at a high level this season.
The Colts as a franchise are a mess and I see them continuing to tumble down to the basement.
Jacksonville’s issue is QB play; Blake Bortles is a lost cause and they need to move on.
We are left with Houston. As you know I am no fan of Bill O’ Brien, however, they might have found a QB. I expect year one success from Deshaun Watson; the Texans have a style of football that could shock the Patriots in the playoffs.
Oakland’s odds are reflective of a team that has been a perennial playoff team. Westgate has 8-1 to win Super Bowl, 4-1 to win AFC and Station has division title at +150. Tons of respect. I do think they are a legit contender but they aren’t worthy of those prices yet.
These three are the after thoughts in the division and weirdly I think they are all capable of putting it together, however I wanna talk Chargers. Phillip Rivers and the Bolts can beat anyone with that offense. They are my dark horse to win the Super Bowl; 50-1 at Westgate. Go in on all things LA Chargers; AFC at Golden Nugget 30-1 and AFC West Title at Station 5-1.