Dolphins likely to regress so bet under for season wins
August 01, 2017 3:08 AM
by Ian Cameron
A look at the AFC East has New England again overwhelming favorites at -900 to win the division while their three competitors the Buffalo Bills (+2000), Miami Dolphins (+1000) and NY Jets (+10000) are all decisive underdogs.
The teams I think offer more futures and win totals betting value in this division specifically are the Miami Dolphins and the New York Jets. Miami made the playoffs last season with a 10-6 record but much of that was schedule related as the Dolphins feasted on a weak schedule and failed to register a signature win all season long.
Miami faces a much tougher schedule this season and the Dolphins have a boatload of offensive question marks once again. Ryan Tannehill has yet to be a standout No. 1 QB in this league, their skill position talent and depth is shy, the offensive line was not consistent at all last season and didn’t really do much to upgrade in the offseason.
The defense should be improved but this is a pass-heavy-offense-first league more than ever before, and at some point Miami will need to trade points with the better squads, I’m not convinced they will be able to do that. I bet Miami UNDER 7.5 wins at -145 as I expect this team to have a tough time hitting the .500 mark.
Another team I expect struggles from inside this division is the New York Jets, currently lined at 4.5 wins at several places. New York looks like the poster child for a rebuilding team and one that could be bordering on tanking this upcoming season. The Jets cut loose most of their veterans from last season including CB Darrelle Revis, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, center Nick Mangold and WR’s Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker among others. The Jets roster is in shambles from a quality talent and depth perspective.
New York heads into the season with a three headed QB monster of veteran journeyman Josh McCown, Christian Hackenberg and Bryce Petty, giving them one of the worst QB rotations in the NFL. Quincy Enunwa, Robby Anderson and rookie ArDarius Stewart headline a weak receiving corps. The offensive line is also a mess.
The defense declined in a big way last season and doesn’t look any better this season with an aging defensive front, plenty of new faces and youth in the rebuilt secondary. Schedule wise, five of the Jets’ first eight opponents made the playoffs last season and the back end of the schedule is tough as well. This is a team that will struggle to win 4 games let alone more. I like the NY Jets UNDER 4.5 wins at -180.
I think Buffalo will be a much more disciplined squad and we will see the number of foolish penalties they take decline significantly. The Bills roster isn’t bottom tier by any stretch. QB Tyrod Taylor has shown extended periods of strong play at the QB position and just needs to clean up a few of the turnovers he had and the defense should improve.
I lean to the Bills going OVER their win total of 6.5 at -130 but the problem for Buffalo is their schedule, which is not an easy one to navigate. The Bills will face playoff teams in five of their final six games this season and also must play three road games in a four week stretch from Week 2 thru Week 5.
I think there is going to be some opportunity to cash in with Buffalo from an ATS standpoint on a game-by-game basis during the season but I am going to stay away from their win total and leave my Over 6.5 wins opinion in the lean category due to concern over that schedule.
In college football here’s an inside look at some teams in each Power 5 conference that I feel have some win totals value, starting with the ACC.
The general consensus is Florida State (+115), Clemson (+400), Louisville (+700), Miami (Fla.) (+800) and Virginia Tech (+950) are the top 5 favorites to win the conference. However, I think there is one team in this mix that might take a bigger step back than expected.
That team is the Clemson Tigers, who have won the ACC title two years in a row and have been to B2B national championship games, including winning the national title last season. Clemson recruits at a high level but the fact remains the Tigers lost a ton from last year’s championship team, as they say goodbye to QB Deshaun Watson who was the ultimate leader and big game performer for the program.
They also lose standout WR Mike Williams, their leader on defense in LB Ben Boulware, CB Cordrea Tankersley and RB Wayne Gallman. Kelly Bryant and true freshman Hunter Johnson will be called upon to step in and fill the QB void, and the defense does have some holes to fill, especially in the secondary which will have plenty of personnel changes from last season. Clemson is lined at 9.5 wins and I’m inclined to take a shot that they finish UNDER 9.5 this season.
The other team that stands out to me in the ACC is the NC State Wolfpack, who I think have the biggest and best chance of being a profit maker ATS this season and also eclipsing their season win total, which is currently at 7.5 wins -105. The Wolfpack are unfortunately in the tougher division of the ACC playing in the Atlantic and thus have to face Louisville, Clemson and Florida State.
NC State getting to 8 or more wins is a feat I believe they can achieve and I would recommend the Wolfpack Over 7.5 wins at -105.