Two percent approach can make you a winner
September 19, 2017 3:00 AM
by Bill Krackomberger
When it comes to winning by betting on sports, there are a few key things to get right before you start trying to “pick winners.”
Failing to hit at a high enough rate to actually profit will derail most bettors, but even those who are able will still lose unless they implement sound money management. Let’s hit a few key points.
First, my advice is to set a starting bankroll and bet an equal percentage on each play. For example, If you allot a $10K bankroll for sports betting, then you should only be playing 2% ($200) of that bankroll per play. As you continue to win and be successful that 2% will become more than $200.
You might be shocked to start at such a small amount even with a $10K bankroll, but it’s the key to beating this game and achieving long-term success. I know that’s easier said than done, and I fully understand most people have their entire bankroll in action Sunday morning, but that’s not how the pros do it, and if you want to become successful you have to become disciplined.
Second, discipline is one of the keys to my success. There are times when I have a losing day and there are plenty more games available to bet on at night. Sometimes I just don’t play anything else. A perfect example is having a losing day on Sunday and the NFL Sunday night prime time football game is about to air on TV. I do not have any action on it because the reality of it is, it’s just another game.
If I don’t have a mathematical edge, I just pass on that game as I do on any regular NFL or CFB game that is played in the middle of the day. The NFL schedule makers choose many big public teams for primetime viewership for ratings. So for me, I usually will have a play on these marquee games and will be opposite of the public team, getting the extra half-point or full point here in Vegas on the dog or the under. It is based on a mathematical edge, not my desire to have “action” on a primetime game just because it is on TV.
That brings me to my next point – line shopping. It’s amazing just looking at one of the free line service screens that are offered (sharpfootballanalysis.com has one, the home page of GamingToday.com is another) and the value of shopping lines here in Vegas. On almost every single primetime game you will find different numbers at many sportsbooks around town. The closer to kickoff, sportsbooks see where they are at from an exposure standpoint and adjust their numbers to try to get equal action on both sides of the game. Therefore, line shopping close to kickoff will offer some value for guys like me.
Finally, whether you’re a local or a tourist, many sportsbooks now offer free apps for betting as long as you’re in the state of Nevada. You can wager on all sports from the palm of your hand on your smart phone or tablet. This allows even more efficient use of line shopping and saves a lot of valuable time.
While sportsbooks still do not let you use your phone at the counter, you can use it or a tablet from your seat, away from the counter and shop the lines. You won’t believe how many of these games (especially in the NFL) land on the pointspread. Therefore having many options and places to wager are also a key to success.
On a roll here at GamingToday, cashing four straight underdogs. So let’s continue that trend:
Best bet: Florida Atlantic +3.
Last week: 2-0