Winning over time in the NFL a difficult game
October 17, 2017 3:00 AM
by Bill Krackomberger
The NFL dogs keep barking, going 11-2 against the spread, including two straight-up 14-point dogs, winning outright.
You may never again find a day where two NFL 14-point dogs win outright. You could have taken over 7-1 on the Miami moneyline and 6.5-1 on the NYG moneyline this past weekend.
Atlanta went from opening -10 to closing -14; Washington from -10 to -12; Denver from -10 to -14. That is a combined total of 10 points that moved on double-digit favorites in the NFL. This just does not happen too often that they all get pounded in the same weekend. And furthermore, those teams all lost.
All of that shows me the originating bookmaker’s line was very good and the public kept on laying it.
I know one group of people who are very happy again – the bookmakers! This may have been one of the biggest Sundays the sportsbooks have ever seen.
The teasers on those favorites all lost. For some reason, the public loves teasing the double-digit favorites down through the 10 and under the 7. The Sunday night game has seen many teaser-bettors betting Denver to -6.5, hoping to bail themselves out from their earlier losses.
You should never bet more on a prime-time game to try recoup losses from earlier in the day.
I have said several times in the past, I do not even bet many of the primetime games unless my chart says that is a play earlier in the week.
I do this to put food on my table, support my family and my not-so-fortunate friends; not to have action and enjoyment.
I am hearing the survivor pools or last-man-standing pools have never seen their contests thin out so quickly in a season. Normally, these type of pools are very enjoyable because you have something to root for most of the year.
I get a kick out of the touts (I call them scamdicappers) that sell games saying they have a “lock pick” or a “five star” NFL play. Please get this into your heads folks: it is almost impossible to win consistently on NFL sides.
I only know a few who can actually beat the NFL totals market, never-mind the sides.
Most importantly, I am predicting the NFL lines will tighten up the second half of the year.
What this means is a team that would be a 10-point favorite last weekend will be a shorter favorite in the same scenario a few weeks from now. I am looking for a return to the mean.
I am not saying the favorites and the underdogs will even out, just that it will not continue at the rate it has because better opportunities to bet the favorites are in the near future.
On to some college football information: I know for a fact that a very sharp syndicate group out there tracks line moves and goes against lots of them. Then they take the other side at the climax of the line move.
This group does not blindly do it on every single game; only the ones they have on their charts that turn into plays for them because of the move.
I preach all the time to watch the closing lines, and if you are serious about making money in this sport, you should chart every single game from opening to closing line.
Another scenario I mentioned in my last article applies here – line manipulation, which is exactly what I was referring to.
Look for games that bounce back close to kickoff since they may just be the real deal plays.
Here is a play I really like for next week in college: ARIZONA -2.5
Last week: 1-2