Sportsbooks destroy public thanks to double digit favorites losing
October 17, 2017 3:00 AM
by Micah Roberts
It was a dog day afternoon in Las Vegas sportsbooks with 10 of the 12 Sunday NFL games going to the underdog and eight of them winning outright. It wasn’t the best win of the young season so far, but Week 6 produced another winner for the house.
“We had a good Saturday and a good Sunday, which is a rarity for us on the same weekend,” said MGM Resorts hub manager Jeff Stoneback.
The books are on a roll and lately the bettors have been in a quandary; they’re confused on what teams to wager on. They can no longer trust their favorite teams. Westgate SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay said they lost only one game on Sunday. One game? That’s insanely good for the house. It was the same story everywhere around town.
“We won seven of the first 11 games – the public had a rough day,” Stoneback said. “Almost everything went our way – parlay cards, teasers, money-line parlays.”
The start to the romp over the public was the Falcons blowing a 17-0 lead at home, losing 20-17 to Miami, who got as high as a 14-point underdog at the South Point.
“The Dolphins beating the Falcons was our biggest game just because it was tied into so many other games,” said Stoneback. “The next best for us was the Jets and Vikings winning outright.”
The Jets were getting +9 against the Patriots and jumped out to a 14-point lead, but hung on for the cover in a New England 24-17 win.
“Solid day with the big win for us on the Vikings,” said Station Casinos sportsbook director Jason McCormick. “The Texans’ cover was a nice straight bet win as well as dogs such as the Jets (+9), 49ers (+9), Cardinals (+2) and Dolphins covering. We continue to do well in teasers each week and beating the teasers and big money-line parlays going down. Rams (+2.5) and Steelers (+4) were losers for us in the afternoon. Lions-Saints Over (51) was also bet heavily and cashed.”
The big development on the day was Aaron Rodgers separating his shoulder in the Packers’ 23-10 loss at Minnesota (+3).
“We adjusted all of our futures in the NFC because of Rodgers impact,” said Stoneback. “We dropped the Eagles, Seahawks, Vikings and Saints. Rodgers is at least worth a TD. The difference between his worth and (Tom) Brady is Brady has a much better back-up with (Jimmy) Garoppolo. Brett Hundley didn’t look so good.”
I’m thinking Rodgers is worth up to 9 points, which makes him easily the most important QB in the NFL. An interesting angle for Green Bay here is making a trade and it seems like the Giants have an agenda of getting USC QB Sam Darnold in the draft. They beat the Broncos, 23-10, as a 14-point underdog Sunday night, but how about trading Eli Manning to Green Bay. Rodgers could be out the entire season, so why not get a replacement. Manning would fit nice.
On the other side of that Denver loss, the Broncos’ QB woes were magnified even more. Trevor Siemian is horrendous and he’s not the future. Paxton Lynch isn’t the answer, nor is Brock Osweiler. Maybe Chad Kelly?
Best of luck this week my people. Good luck and pick smart.