People don't realize they should be happy with 58% winners
October 24, 2017 3:00 AM
by Bill Krackomberger
Whether it’s phone calls, text messages, emails or carrier pigeon, I cannot begin to tell you how many people are constantly asking me for my selections on the games. The sad part of this is 95% of the people who are smart enough to ask will still lose.
One of my computer savants ran some Monte Carlo simulations. Monte Carlo simulation is a computerized mathematical technique that allows people to account for risk in quantitative analysis and decision making. It shows the extreme possibilities – the outcomes of going for broke and for the most conservative decision – along with all possible consequences for middle-of-the-road decisions.
So let’s say you are a 58% handicapper; after 300 plays you will experience anywhere from 4 to 8 consecutive losses in a row. So that’s almost a given, even at a high 58% win rate; the losing streak will occur somewhere in those 300 plays. And don’t be surprised to see 10 consecutive losses in a row. But after 600 plays, the simulations of longest consecutive losses from the model’s run were: 7, 6, 9, 7, 7, 5, 9.
The bottom line is, even for outstanding handicapping (58%), after approximately 600 plays, there will undoubtedly be multiple runs of consecutive losses, at times as many as almost 10 in a row.
Going back to why 95% of people who ask for my plays will still lose. First, they do not get the same number I get because of lack of places to bet. Most people just do not care about line shopping. I can get one of my underdogs at some books with an extra 1/2 point or even full point more than at some of the sharper places. It’s shocking to me how many times the person asking only looks at the one casino they are in to make their wager.
Second, no matter what selection’s I give someone, most of them throw in their own games and also play parlays and teasers. My NFL totals guy (Warren Sharp) overall won a net of 13 units last season betting totals. (This year so far he is 30-18.)
Gamblers always look at games from the perspective of the team they bet on. Instead of being totally objective and learning from bad bets, they always sugar-coat their losses.
That’s a big problem and prevents intellectual growth, which inhibits learning and more intelligent betting in the future. It’s completely crazy, thinking they are always right but just unlucky keeps their appetite up and drooling to make their next bet.
Let’s get the money this week: Seattle/Houston over 43; Boston College +3; Vanderbilt +7
Last week: 0-1, Season: 7-8-1