Let’s make a new betting resolution to break bad habits
January 02, 2018 5:23 PM
by Bill Krackomberger
Let’s make a new resolution to break bad habits. I know that is one of the toughest things to do. So, first your mind needs to see how most strategies fail.
This is the power in visual Monte Carlo simulations. The trials you visually see over and over again start to sink into your subconscious of what makes a successful gambler. This is the only way to break from a vicious circle going totally broke every six months or so.
Most of the time, the trouble lies in the betting pattern (aka gambling habit). When a Monte Carlo is run 100,000 times the simulation will clearly show what mistakes you are making.
The trials will also show repeatedly how over-betting leads to ruin. The beauty in the Monte Carlo simulations is they give you “the long run” perspective.
Unfortunately, many times people are just using personal experience over a few weeks or even a few months of betting history. If you do this it is highly likely you are using an inadequate small sample size to evaluate your performance. Using a small sample is subject to randomness. The strategy clearly needs to have an “edge”.
For example, if I flip a coin 100 times, one set of 100 trials can easily show 55 heads. The next set 45 heads. There is no way of knowing if the coin is biased heads by just flipping it 100 times. Unless of course if you have 99 heads and 1 tail, then it is very obvious it’s a very heavy weighted coin.
Things in gambling are never that easy to spot. When making a sports wager against the spread, you are basically making a bet the coin is weighted heads or tails.
If you think the spread is correct, then you should pass since you think the bet is no different than a fair coin flip. And this type of constant betting would be a losing proposition in the long run since you are paying a “vig” every time you bet.
The edge in sports betting is clearly getting the sharp line. Just think how many times people blindly bet -3.5 when they could have gotten -3, or even -2.5 (-120) if they had shopped lines or made the wager earlier in the week.
More often than not, the Monte Carlo trials of that game played 50,000 times will show the edge was only for the bettors who got -2.5. There may have been no edge at -3 and if you made the bad bet at -3.5, the trial will show you will have a significant loss to your bankroll if you bet that game 50,000 times.
So let’s make a few commitments this year.
• Use any of the free line services available to you to shop the lines in Vegas. (GamingToday has one).
• Don’t bet a game just because its playoff time and it’s on TV (that’s what degenerates do).
• Bet more when your bankroll goes up and less when it goes down.
Bottom line: A strategy that has been successful for me is to take these home favorites of 7.5-9.5 in the playoffs and tease them down through the key numbers of 7 and 3 to get the line under -3.
Note: Jacksonville and Kansas City fall into that parameter this weekend.