Don't bet less just bet smarter on Super Bowl props
January 30, 2018 3:00 AM
by Bill Krackomberger
Well, here we are at that time of the year again where most people over bet their bankrolls.
The amount of money bet on Super Bowl 52 will set a record for sure, breaking the current mark of $138 million set last year. My goal here at GamingToday is to try to make you aware of what you are doing before you do it. Not necessarily to bet less but just bet smarter.
For example, when line shopping for props I first start out with the casinos that are using -110 on both sides of the offerings. It’s not always what you win, but how you save when you lose that plays a vital role in bankroll management. This goes for almost any sport. If I am given an option on a college basketball game of taking +18 -05 or +18.5 -110. I will take the -05 juice usually. Unless it’s on a lower number with a lower total. However, that’s for another article.
This is not to say I don’t play in the higher juice joints in town. I absolutely do. I’m just saying I start out at the -110 spots for value. For me it’s all about volume because I have a mathematical edge on all my plays.
After talking to my NFL guy Warren Sharp, let’s go over some of the proposition bets we are on this weekend.
At the Westgate I played Jay Ajayi longest reception OVER 9.5 yards and total receiving yards OVER 17.5. They adjusted to 10.5 and 18.5 respectively, which I still think are worth it. Here are some of the reasons why:
On targets to Ajayi since week 15, Foles is 8/10, 50% success rate, 9.1 YPA. On early downs this season, the Patriots allow a 60% success rate to RB targets, which ranks 31st, and just 1% worse than the No. 32 team (DAL), and the 7.5 YPA to RBs, also 31st, which came against the 5th easiest schedule of RB-pass offenses. Ajayi just finished playing the first and seventh rated defenses against RB passes (MIN, ATL). He caught three passes for 44 yards against the Falcons and three passes for 26 yards against the Vikings. Combined, he was 6/8 for 8.8 YPA against two of the best RB-pass defenses (in terms of success rate allowed) on the season. Now he gets to face arguably the NFL’s overall worst RB-pass defense, the Patriots.
I also think there is some value going OVER on Dion Lewis 2.5 receptions. I don’t know how much success Brady will have against the defense so I am thinking he will have to throw more dump passes to guys like Lewis. I actually see over 2.5 receptions at -200, 2 to win 1 around town. I usually hate laying that kind of juice for fear of injuries or just getting unlucky but I think we are ok here.
I also like more points in the second half than the first half. This year you have to lay -.5 and -130. Fourteen of the last 20 Super Bowl’s have gone that way and all but one of Brady’s appearances have gone that way also. Super Bowls or any big game atmosphere for that matter normally start out slow for many factors. I expect this year to be no different.
Please do not think I am playing just overs on props. Fact is, I will have more plays on under on props than over. However, I wait till closer to game time to place bets on UNDER. As it gets closer to game time all the squares come to town and bet OVER on the props. Just think about it, people come to town to watch the big game and are in positive happy moods. They are not going to be rooting/betting on under on many things.
So then the sportsbooks are forced to move the lines up and then guys like me are there scooping up the value closer to post time. It’s good for the sportsbooks also to tighten up exposure in case there is an offensive shoot out. When you’re betting Super Bowl props, unless a line is completely off, I usually advocate going “over” early and “under” late.
As far as a side goes… well, I will have 100 times more money on props than I do the game outcome. I do see some value on Philly first half +3. I took some 6 on the game but that’s way gone and that won’t be coming back.