Not so Super Bowl for sportsbooks, sharps
February 06, 2018 3:00 AM
by Bill Krackomberger
Thank you to the sports gods for the NFL season coming to a close. This year’s Super Bowl was not that super for anyone who is a sharp prop bettor.
Guys like me usually take advantage of the squares and tourists who come into town and wager on the Over for the player props. We then step in more toward game time and bet the Under after the books adjust their lines based on the tourist volume.
When you have a game that only has one punt and 74 points that’s not going to be good for us. Even though I had the winning side of the game it did not overcome the loss on the proposition plays.
Overall I only lost a peanut. It could’ve been much much worse because a lot of sharp guys take advantage of the yearly low money-line offered on the Super Bowl favorite here in Vegas. I didn’t get sucked in on that because I watched this team struggle to win against Jacksonville a few weeks back.
The returns were not in at press time, but the profits are not going to be as big as years past, even based on record-setting volume. Some of the books in town are actually going to be posting losses. While I am not going to be setting up a go fund me page or passing around a collection plate for them, it actually may surprise you that I want the books to win. It becomes easier in the long run for a guy like me to be able to place wagers. The more they win, the less scrutiny on that sector for the properties.
It actually could have been much worse for the books if the game landed with a Patriots win of 1 to 4 points. That would have caused a city wide loss.
Now I’m on to other money making opportunities like college basketball. It is much easier to win in the early part of the season than late. However, historically I have typically produced winning records and nice profits the entire season. In fact, March Madness has been very good for me the last decade. So I will offer some tips and insights over the next six weeks about how to take advantage of opportunities.
Knowing values and not settling for lines from a single book is vital for long term success.
The lower the total on a game, the better it is to get the half-points when playing sides. For example: Game A, Indiana -3, has a total of 128 over Rutgers. Game B, Oklahoma -3, has a total of 168 over West Virginia.
When doing your line shopping just realize game A overall will play closer to the number than B. The lower the projected total points usually means less variance. So the extra half point you get with game A is worth more than that same half point on B.
Bottom line: Keep a closer eye on all available lines around town, especially on the lower totals.