Good Luck or No Colts an over bet
August 07, 2018 3:02 AM
by Alan Berg
Preseason NFL is underway, which means it’s time to release the NFL Season Win Totals. Let’s waste no time and jump in.
Indianapolis Colts OVER 6.5 (William Hill -135): With the return of starter Andrew Luck combined with new head coach Frank Reich, the Colts are finally, after a horrendous stretch of mismanagement, headed in the right direction.
Now for those worried about Luck’s health, I hear you, however if you look at the analytics side of backup Jacoby Brissett, he really grew up a lot last season. Even if Brissett has to come in to replace Luck, the Colts will be much better this season having a much better offensive mind at the helm. Reich came over from the Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles.
Houston Texans UNDER 9 (CG Technology -105) 8.5 (Westgate +140): The totals between these two books is like a pick your poison, would you rather be protected on a push or get a little greedy on the extra 45 cents. A -105 is not much juice to lay for a team I expect as a 7-8 game winner max with a suddenly challenging AFC South. If Houston needs 10 wins to beat me I will take either option here.
Tennessee Titans OVER 8 (South Point, Golden Nugget, Wynn -110): The easiest total to scoop, thanks to multiple locations having the same solid line, is the Titans. Much like the Colts a new head coach in Mike Vrabel will make a world of difference. My favorite quote from his introduction as the new guy in Tennessee, “the owner is going to trust me to hire the right (Offensive Coordinator) for Marcus Mariota or I wouldn’t have been hired.” He got Matt LaFleur from the LA Rams, who was the OC there last season. Fanastic change of the guard in Nashville; look out for this team.
Oakland Raiders UNDER 8.5 (CGT -160) 8 (Golden Nugget +110): Here I am going with the bigger value in juice at the Nugget. I actually think Gruden will figure out how to be a head coach in the modern NFL. That said I expect year one to be a walking disaster. Gruden will need to adjust to a much different offensive world and will need a great young OC. Not sure if new OC Greg Olson will bring enough of the Rams system he just worked in to be a success year one and rely too much on Gruden’s old X’s and O’s.
Detroit Lions UNDER 8 (South Point -125) 7.5 (CGT +120): Also going with the more profitable number here at CGT. I actually don’t think the Lions are that bad, it’s just the NFC North is loaded, the Bears, I think, will be around that 7-9 threshold, meaning someone in the North has to take a fall and for my money it’s Detroit.
New Orleans Saints OVER 9.5 (Golden Nugget -120): What can I say, the Saints are going back to the playoffs and they will get you there with a minimum of 10 wins. The team is as stable as it has been in years – coaching, players, young talent. New Orleans is a true Super Bowl contender in 2018.
Seattle Seahawks UNDER 8.5 (CGT -180) 8 (Caesars -125) 7.5 (Will Hill +115): Honestly, we are going to see the worst season for the Seattle Seahawks since 2009 when they went 5-11. Going bold call here, Seahawks will win five games in 2018; go under 7.5.
Arizona Cardinals UNDER 6.5 (CGT -150) 6 (Caesars EV) 5.5 (Will Hill +150): This has to be one of the most puzzling teams to me. If Bradford or even Rosen can stay up right, maybe they won’t be completely terrible?
Like the Seahawks, I think the fall from grace will be fast before it turns around. If they hit a home run with Rosen, maybe the turnaround goes quick. For now let’s go under 6 at Caesars at EVEN. Because I don’t care for Seattle, I am worried Arizona gives me a sweat at 5.5. Oh and sorry, Mom, rebuilding years do happen to everyone’s team, see my Bears!