Sunday’s NFL Week 4 action saw all three undefeated teams against the spread fail to cover their numbers helping the underdogs get the money in nine of the 13 games with seven of them winning outright. Those incredible results, which included 10 games won by road teams, led Nevada sportsbooks to their best day of the young season.
“It was our best week of the season,” CG Technology sportsbook director Tony DiTomasso said. “It all started with the Panthers (+5.5 at Houston) winning and the Ravens (-7 vs. Browns) losing which knocked out lots of teasers.
“The Chiefs (-7.5 at Detroit) were our biggest parlay side so when they didn’t cover followed by the Patriots (-7 at Buffalo) missing an extra-point to not cover, it paved the way for a great day.”
It was the same story at just about every book in the state. Marc Nelson up north at the Atlantis Reno said his book was holding 22 percent going into the late game which had no risk on either side because of knocking out any extended parlay risk right out of the gate.
“Sharps did well and we went 2-4 in games where we took six figures but it was still by far our biggest win of the season,” said MGM Resorts sportsbook director Jeff Stoneback. “We did really well to parlays and teasers with so many underdogs covering and winning on the day.”
When nine dogs cover on an NFL Sunday it’s usually going to be an awful week for the betting public and the books scoop most of the chips. Stoneback’s example of losing to large money and wiseguys and still winning big shows just how important the regular Joe is to the bottom line. He went a step further to clarify how good the week was.
“If we compare today’s results to all last season’s regular season Sundays and all of this year’s it would rank in the top-five best results,” he said.
There’s always that big root game to parlays either flourishing early and gaining momentum throughout each result posted on the day, or crushing the parlay dead before they morph into a winning 5-teamer. Week 4 had a big one, and lots of other little exterminators helping out early making it a no sweat day for bookmakers.
“Our biggest win of the day was the Chiefs not covering,” Stoneback said of the Chiefs’ 34-30 win over the Lions with a TD in the final seconds. “And after that our best decisions were the Browns, Chargers, and Jaguars.”
An outright Chiefs win would have immediately destroyed thousands of teasers, but there were plenty of other popular teams hovering past key numbers that would fall later. Teams like the Ravens had the ideal number to tease, but they lost outright to the Browns, 40-25. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook was offering the Browns money line at +300.
The crazy thing about the Browns win is that they were a popular public bet the first three weeks after being one of the biggest Super Bowl futures coming into the season. But after watching them look so pathetic on the big stage last Monday night, the public abandoned ship and bet against them. Now the books have the public right where they want them for the next few weeks second-guessing themselves.
Don’t always believe what you saw last. However, that theory may not apply to the sad Dolphins, who lost 30-10 at home to the Chargers. But as bad as the Dolphins are, the number usually levels things out with a stink tax added to the spread which was about 4 points added to the number this week that wiseguys had to bite on. They pushed the number from -16 down to -14.5.
The public wasn’t excited about laying the big number in straight bets, parlays or teasers, so the books didn’t get much Chargers money anywhere, making it was one of the few games the books beat the sharps on this week.
The Dolphins are the only NFL team not cover a spread this season at 0-4 ATS. Another ATS note is that all three teams that had been a perfect 3-0 ATS coming into Week 4 all failed to cover Sunday (Chiefs, Rams, Patriots).
“Our biggest game of the day was Chicago winning,” DiTomasso said of the Bears’ 16-6 home win against the Vikings. “That’s a game that ran from (Bears) -3 to pick ‘em by kickoff.”
One of those games the public liked on their parlays and teasers were the Rams as 9-point home favorites who proceeded to get pounded 55-40 by the Buccaneers. However, Stoneback’s MGM books were one of the few to take it on the chin with the Bucs.
“Our worst game was the Buccaneers because we had a large six-figure wager on them,” he said.
Circa sportsbook offered a Nevada-best money-line on the Bucs at +390.
Overall, favorites went 4-9 ATS Sunday and 4-10 ATS, including the Eagles Thursday night win and six of the 14 games went over the total.
“It was an incredible day,” said Caesars Palace sportsbook director Jeff Davis. “Everything went right.”