The Open doesn't have a true favorite with the lowest golfer at 12-1
July 17, 2018 3:11 AM
by Micah Roberts
The 147th British Open tees off early Thursday morning at Carnoustie Golf Links in Angus, Scotland and just by looking at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook odds board, where no golfer is listed lower than 12-to-1, it appears this thing is wide open.
“You can make a lot of good cases for golfers at prices over 100-to-1 because it’s a links course that several European golfers are familiar with,” said SuperBook oddsmaker Jeff Sherman.
Dustin Johnson, the winner of the 2016 U.S. Open, is the 12-to-1 favorite to win followed by Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler and Justin Rose, each at 16-to-1. McIlroy won The Open Championship in 2014. Last year’s winner Jordan Spieth is 20-to-1, as is the most wagered upon golfer.
“Right now the most interest so far has been with Tommy Fleetwood at 20-to-1,” said Sherman of the Merseyside golfer who should be familiar with the course.
An American has won the past five majors with Brooks Koepka starting and finishing the trend with back-to-back U.S. Open wins. He’s also 20-to-1 to win, but there’s another U.S. golfer the majority is waiting to cash.
“Fowler has been one of those guys people continue to bet in their staking plan for each major, kind of like a lot of people did with Sergio Garcia in his early years,” Sherman said.
Tiger Woods will also be a big story as he’s been looking to win his 15th major since 2008. He’s a three-time winner of the British Open, the last coming in back-to-back years in 2005 and 2006. Despite the drought, bettors still love him.
“Tiger is up there among our leaders in tickets written and risk,” said Sherman. “We saw some money on him at 25-to-1 early and dropped him to 20-to-1, but when it sat there for a couple weeks with little interest I moved it back up to 25-to-1.”
Sherman posted all the matchups Monday but waited until Tuesday to post all the props just to confirm what the weather is like. There’s a huge variance in all prop numbers depending on if rainy and windy conditions are expected or if all is calm with Mother Nature.
2022 World Cup: Just as France was hoisting the trophy Sunday in Russia as 2018 World Cup Champions, the SuperBook was already breaking down the 2022 edition, which will be played in the blazing hot sands of Qatar. Brazil opens as the 6-to-1 favorite followed by France at 13-to-2 and Germany at 7-to-1. The USA is listed at 60-to-1. The SuperBook doesn’t mess around. Time lost is money lost and they continue to set the standard in town.
FanDueled: What a bizarre sequence of events at the Meadowlands’ first weekend of taking sports wagers. It’s the property closest to the massive New York City market. FanDuel is the bookmaker there and it’s apparent no one in its operation made a bookmaking guide for baseball or offered any of their bookmakers a proper line chart.
They should have at least read the book Roxy Roxborough wrote to start them off on the elementary levels of bookmaking. This isn’t fantasy sports, which FanDuel actually knows, where you can just shave off a percentage of the pool and always win.
On Saturday they had 25-cent splits on the sides of small favorites and ran in all other directions upward as the favorites became larger. There was no conformity. And apparently, they don’t use a Don Best screen because if they did they would see that New Jersey competitor William Hill at Monmouth Park and Oceans Resort uses a 10-cent split to start. FanDuel also tried to revolutionize the US betting industry with 30-cent splits on totals and 40-cent run line splits on small favorites.
It was laughable and almost as if the fantasy sports organization had never seen a baseball line in their life. It seemed entirely unorganized, and it probably was because they’re not using a Las Vegas bookmaker after putting this thing together quickly.
It could also be they did some research in Nevada to understand that the only books who do poorly at times in baseball are those that use the 10-cent split. MGM Resorts hasn’t complained about baseball in quite a while because they use 20-cent splits.
Just when I gave them the benefit of the doubt that maybe they were starting with nasty splits just to get their many customers who already have the Fanduel app on their phones ready for the fleecing, they caved in after an onslaught of Twitter anger. On Sunday, they dropped their totals to a 15-cent split and I still don’t understand where their chart line breaks are. It was all over the place, but still better than Saturday.
You can’t fake bookmaking. This is what happens when a fantasy sports operation tries it. And they promised so much money in lofty projections to win the contract that they immediately began fleecing their public. But not all bettors are dummies. They should have plucked a few minds from Las Vegas. But no, these guys are trying to reinvent the wheel. Good luck with that and in trying to match the extremely fair and talented William Hill in Jersey.
The many Las Vegas bookmaking consultants are ready to help FanDuel. They can be the first episode of Sports Book Rescue with Jon Taffer.