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The Kansas City Chiefs drafted Patrick Mahomes in 2017, and the superstar quarterback has already made it to four AFC Championship Games and two Super Bowls. Mahomes has won a total of eight playoff games in his young career, and he’s looking to add another Sunday, as he eyes his third consecutive Super Bowl appearance. Let’s look back on how well Mahomes has delivered for Chiefs bettors in the playoffs.
Betting On Mahomes ATS
Mahomes and the Chiefs have been consistent winners for sports bettors in the NFL Playoffs. Since Mahomes took over as the team’s starter in 2018, Kansas City is 8-2 straight up and 7-3 against the spread, covering in all but one of their wins. The Chiefs have been the betting favorites in all 10 of these games.
In Mahomes’ first trip to the AFC Championship in 2018, the Chiefs lost as 3-point home favorites to the New England Patriots, 37-31 in overtime.
But Mahomes and Kansas City got redemption the following year. In their 2019 run to the NFL title, the Chiefs covered the spread in all three of their playoff games — as 10-point favorites in a 51-31 win over Houston, laying 7.5 points in a 35-24 win against the Titans in the AFC Championship, and going on to win the Super Bowl against the 49ers, 31-20, covering the -1.5 spread.
In 2020, Mahomes and the Chiefs went up against the Cleveland Browns in the divisional round after earning a first-round bye. Kansas City beat Cleveland 22-17, not enough to cover the -7.5 spread. That’s the only time the Chiefs have won a postseason game but failed to cover with Mahomes at the helm.
The following Sunday, Mahomes and the Chiefs hosted their third consecutive AFC Championship, beating the Buffalo Bills 38-24 and covering the 3-point spread. But they went on to lose the Super Bowl as 3-point favorites to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 31-9.
Mahomes and the Chiefs have bounced back from that loss to Tom Brady and the Bucs, as they’re hosting their fourth consecutive AFC Championship on Sunday. While most sportsbooks, including DraftKings, have the Chiefs favored at -7 against the Cincinnati Bengals, BetMGM has been dealing -7.5 this week. K.C. has cashed as 12.5- and 2-point favorites against the Steelers and Bills, respectively, so far this postseason.
Betting On Mahomes When It Comes To The Over/Under
The Chiefs are known to put up plenty of points, mostly thanks to Mahomes. But the betting market knows this, of course, and the totals for Chiefs playoffs games are typically high, often in the mid-50s. K.C. is just 6-4 to the ‘over’ in postseason games during the Mahomes era.
When the Chiefs cover spreads, however, games tend to go ‘over’. The ‘over’ has cashed in five straight playoff games in which K.C. covered. The loss to the Patriots in the 2019 conference title game also went ‘over’, surpassing the total of 56 before the game went into overtime.
While only 43 points were scored in the first three quarters of last Sunday’s thriller against the Bills, the late-game offensive explosion from both teams easily got the game ‘over’ 54.5 with a 42-36 final.
However, the Chiefs’ 2021 Super Bowl loss stayed ‘under’ the total. The Chiefs scored only 9 points, and the Bucs put up 31, so the game didn’t come close to the 54.5 total.
K.C’s other recent non-cover in the postseason stayed ‘under’ — last year vs. the Browns (55.5)
For Sunday’s 2022 AFC Championship, the total on most oddsboards, inclduding FanDuel, is 54.5. Recent history suggest Chiefs bettors may want to look at the ‘over’, while those taking the points with Bengals should consider the ‘under’.
Also check: Super Bowl odds | Super Bowl Squares
