A fictional pilot once said, “Never tell me the odds.” Some say he was referring to the possibility of destroying a planet-annihilating weapon. Others think he was talking about sports betting. The jury may be out, but we’ll talk about the latter today.
Odds and lines can change at top sportsbooks, and there are countless reasons they do. This page will explain the most common reasons that odds change in online sportsbooks, plus important terms to know and how to use line movements to your advantage.
What Is Line Movement?
In its simplest form, line movement is the reality of changing odds or lines. Sportsbooks do it to maximize their profits or respond to the latest developments, such as injuries, weather, etc. Line movement also occurs during games, which is why many bettors enjoy live betting.
The initial odds a sportsbook sets for a game are called the “opening odds.” They don’t stay the same. New information, market confidence, and money play key roles in line movement, which we’ll explore in more detail as we continue.
What Causes Line Movement?
There are various causes of line movement, but the main reason lines move is because of bets coming in. For example, a sportsbook sees a lot of action on the Baltimore Ravens vs. the Kansas City Chiefs.
If bettors are flocking to bet on the Chiefs moneyline, sportsbooks will move the line to make bets on the Chiefs moneyline slightly less valuable in terms of profit potential. This is intended to make a Ravens bet more enticing. There’s a difference between “sharp money” and “public money,” though. If sharps — experienced bettors who wager hefty sums — are betting on one side, the line is more likely to move than if a few casual bettors of the public bet on that side.
Line movement can also result from developments that might impact the outcome of a game. Perhaps a quarterback or star pitcher is injured three days before a matchup. Or maybe a predicted sunny day turns rainy. Various factors are at play when a sportsbook sets or changes the odds.
How To Bet When Lines Shift
There’s no cut-and-dry strategy to deploy when lines shift, but some general advice can be super helpful. Here are a few hypothetical scenarios to keep in mind.
The simple answer here is to pounce and take the advantageous line. You could always wait to see if the line moves further, increasing your advantage, but that’s just as risky as the gambling itself. When you see a line that looks favorable to you, our recommendation is to go for it.
The exception to this rule is lines that shift drastically due to external factors, which could make holding out a good plan.
We have two recommendations here. First, wait it out for a bit to see if the line shifts again and returns to a more advantageous position. It’s not guaranteed, but it can happen based on bets from sharps and the public.
Alternatively, shop around at various sportsbooks. They’re competing for your business, so you may be able to find a line that values your position at a slightly higher implied probability. The line or odds might not be the best after the move, but you can still play it to your advantage.
When you see big shifts in the line, pause and start researching outside the sportsbooks. Big line movements are telltale signs of a player injury or other external development that could result in more big swings.
If you can’t find any obvious reason for a drastic change in a line, it might be that sharp money is influencing the odds. Consider that and decide whether the bet is still valuable to you.
Tracking Line Movement and Fading the Public
You can track line movement by keeping a close eye on your desired bet at a sportsbook. Some line movements appear instantly, while others might occur after the sportsbook suspends the bet for a while.
One strategy among bettors is to “fade the public.” The public can move a line by betting heavily on one side of a wager, such as one team’s moneyline. If you see a lot of line movement in a case like this, the other side of the bet likely has higher value.
It’s a great opportunity to pounce, especially because line movements spurred by the public aren’t the result of external factors. In other words, the team favored by the public isn’t any more likely to win; the sportsbook is just hedging its profit potential by moving the line.
Pros and Cons of Line Movement
Pros
Movements can provide good value on one side of a bet Playing movements correctly over time can yield profits Sportsbook apps provide an easy way to track line movements
Cons
Many line movements exist to help the sportsbook and not the players You can miss out on a valuable bet if a line move is disadvantageous Odds always include the vig, which is a sportsbook’s cut, even if the lines move
What Is Reverse Line Movement?
Reverse line movement happens when a line changes in a direction contrary to what the public is betting. This typically means sharp bettors and/or sportsbook oddsmakers have a different outlook on which way the game will go.
Reverse line movement can be great for bettors because there might be good value on a line to fade the sharps and bet with the public. However, sharps usually know their stuff, so always check if there’s a good reason for the reversal.
Line Movement Example
Let’s look at game odds from a past game: Super Bowl LV from 2020. Though the game has long since concluded, the odds changes show a good example of line movement.
| Odds | Point Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | -3.5 (-106) | -175 | Over 57.5 (-107) |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +3.5 (-115) | +140 | Under 57.5 (-114) |
And now the closing odds:
| Odds | Point Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | -3 (-110) | -157 | Over 56 (-110) |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +3 (-110) | +139 | Under 56 (-110) |
Tampa Bay started as a narrow underdog. Not much changed by the time closing odds were set, but the lines moved slightly. Bettors who got in on the +3 point spread would’ve earned slightly more than those who bet on the opening odds for Tampa Bay, considering the team won handily. These differences are small but can add up over time across many bets.
Line Movement FAQ
Line movement occurs when odds or lines change based on inputs. Sportsbooks will change lines based on public bets, sharp bettors, player injuries, weather, and all sorts of other data points.
Sportsbooks usually update their odds in real-time, so you can follow along in your favorite sportsbook app. Some oddsmakers temporarily suspend a specific bet while changing the odds or line.
This depends on numerous factors. The generic answer is “a lot,” but that can mean a bunch of public bets or a few big-time bets from sharps.
It can be. However, it can also be a setback, depending on which side of the bet you prefer.
Sometimes, it’s hard to tell, but sharp money can influence reverse line movement. That’s a good sign of where sharps are betting. If a line is moving for the favored team, that could indicate public money influence over sharps.
Some people might be able to track stats and external factors to occasionally predict line moves, but that’s a full-time job. We recommend just keeping up to date with your teams and bets to check for movement rather than trying to predict the future.
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