Massachusetts sports betting launched in 2023 and has quickly become a strong market for fans of all sports. DraftKings is based in Boston and offers sports betting in the state alongside many other big-name brands. Massachusetts bettors can take advantage of our Kelly Criterion Calculator to maximize potential profits.
Kelly Criterion Calculator
Gaming Today’s Kelly Criterion Calculator — or Kelly Calculator — can help a sports bettor decide how much of their bankroll to risk on a series of wagers. The recommended amount is based on the odds offered by the sportsbook and an understanding of the predicted winning percentage.
Originally applied to the stock market, the Kelly Criterion formula quickly moved to horse race betting and found its most successful use in poker. However, based on the information, this aggressive betting strategy can be used with any form of wagering to maximize profit.
Try out the Kelly Criterion Calculator below, but pay careful attention to heavy favorites (i.e., -200 odds and shorter) because the Kelly Calculator struggles with “sure things.”
Kelly Criterion Calculator
Kelly Criterion Calculator: Key Terms
You can use our on-page calculator to determine betting strategies via the Kelly Criterion. No download or login is required, but some knowledge beforehand is helpful. Here are the key terms involved.
- Kelly Multiplier: This multiplier should be set at the multiple you want to apply to your Kelly bets. We recommend somewhere between 0.5 (half Kelly) and 1.
- American Odds: The odds on a bet you plan to place using a Kelly strategy.
- Win percentage: Your overall win percentage on bets with the specific odds you use in the field above. You should use a sports betting tracker to monitor your wins and losses.
- Fraction of Bankroll to Wager: The recommended percentage of your budget to place on this bet, according to the Kelly Criterion.
How to Use the Kelly Criterion Calculator
There are three major things to know when using our Kelly Criterion Calculator: the betting odds, the Kelly Multiplier, and your winning percentage.
The odds are the easiest thing to find. Open your favorite sportsbook app to find the betting line for your desired wager.
From there, we move on to the Kelly Multiplier and your winning percentage, both of which require some work and benefit from attention to detail.
The Kelly Multiplier, if set to 1, will recommend an amount of your bankroll to wager. Applying a multiplier, such as 0.5, will take that multiple of the result. If the calculator said to wager 10% of your bankroll with a 1 multiplier, it would recommend 5% with a 0.5 multiplier. We recommend a multiplier between 0.3 and 1.
The winning percentage, meanwhile, should come from your winning percentage on the specific odds of your current bet. If you’re looking to calculate a bet on odds of -250, your winning percentage should only come from bets of those odds.
Kelly Criterion Calculation Example
Here, we’ll use some NFL odds in this example Kelly Criterion calculation.
Let’s say we have a $200 bankroll to work with and want to use half Kelly, also known as a 0.5 multiplier.
- Seattle Seahawks Moneyline: -278
Enter the details into the calculator. Our Kelly Multiplier is 0.5, the odds are -278, and the success rate should come from our betting history on these odds (or very similar). Let’s say our win percentage is 75% and plug that in.
From there, click “Calculate” and the Kelly Criterion Calculator will work its magic.
According to the calculator, we should wager 2.75% of our bankroll on this bet: $5.50.
Say we wanted to go full Kelly instead of half. The calculator would look the same, but we would enter “1” in the multiplier field and then calculate like so:
Notice how it gives a recommendation that doubles the result of the half Kelly calculation. You can fiddle with the multiplier to help tailor your bets based on confidence.
Legal Sports Betting States for Kelly Criterion Wagering
Our Kelly Criterion Calculator is most useful to bettors in legal sports betting states.
Below are a few key markets where it can help bettors tailor the Kelly Criterion formula to wagers at regulated betting sites.
Massachusetts Sports Betting
Michigan Sports Betting
The Michigan sports betting industry is among the largest in the country, with operators like DraftKings, FanDuel, BetRivers, Caesars, and BetMGM calling it home. In Michigan, bettors can fully utilize the Kelly Criterion Calculator to determine the bankroll percentages of their bets.
North Carolina Sports Betting
Kicking off in early 2024, the North Carolina sports betting market is the latest state to legalize online sportsbooks. Now, bettors in the state can enjoy sportsbooks like DraftKings, FanDuel, and many others. North Carolinians can use our Kelly Criterion Calculator to plan their bets on college football, the NFL, and other sports.
Other Sports Betting Calculators at Gaming Today
Are you looking for other sports betting calculators to help guide your decisions? We have you covered in the table below.
| 🛠️ Sports Betting Tool | 💡 How it Works |
|---|---|
| 3-Way No Vig Calculator | For events where a tie is possible (like soccer), the three-way fair odds calculator eliminates the vig and presents the odds as a percentage (implied probability) to better clarify the three options. |
| Arbitrage Calculator | This calculator will help you determine if betting on two different sides on the same match on two different sportsbooks will move the odds to give you a guaranteed profit. |
| Fair Odds Calculator | This one also strips out the vig from the odds, but designed for two possible results: win or lose. |
| Futures Calculator | Determine implied probability based on all futures odds for a given sport. |
| Implied Probability Calculator | Implied probability is simply the American odds presented as a percentage rather than plus (+) and minus (-) lines. |
| Martingale Calculator | This calculator will determine how much you’ll need to wager to recoup losses. |
| Moneyline Calculator | The most straightforward calculator of them all. Simply enter your odds and the wager, and see the potential win. |
| NFL Prop Bet Calculator | An NFL prop bet calculator attempts to find the fair price for a large number of props based on a limited number of inputs. |
| NFL Spread Calculator | This tool will help you compare spreads at different sportsbooks to determine the better bet. |
| Odds Calculator | An automated way to convert a form of odds into a different form. For example, American odds to decimal or fractional odds. |
| Parlay Calculator | Before you place a parlay bet, use the parlay calculator to ensure you’re taking a higher risk for a worthwhile win potential. |
| ROI Calculator | Calculate the projected gains from a bet versus the total cost of the bet to determine your potential return on investment (ROI). |
| Super Bowl Squares | Online super bowl squares or football squares with friends (no accounts needed). |
Kelly Criterion Calculator FAQ
The Kelly Criterion betting strategy involves using a bankroll percentage for each bet based on a wager’s odds and your past success with bets featuring those odds.
If you want to place a handful of bets and have sufficient historical data about the odds, Kelly Criterion is a great tool for determining how much to bet on each market.
In essence, our Kelly Criterion Calculator takes your winning percentage and multiplier to help calculate how much of your bankroll you should wager on a given bet.
The Kelly Criterion formula’s pros are that it can help maximize profits and remove some of the chance-based decision-making of sports betting. The cons include needing your win percentage data to fully employ the benefits of this tool.
