Gaming Today’s Implied Probability Calculator takes a bit of algebraic work out of the equation. Use it to convert any moneyline number into an implied probability of winning.
Moneyline bets represent the most straightforward way to bet on sports. A moneyline wager calls on bettors to simply choose the winner of a game, with no point spread involved.
All moneyline odds can be converted into implied probability, breaking down each side’s chances of winning as implied by the sportsbook’s moneyline odds for the game.
More Tools: No Vig Calculator | Futures Calculator | Moneyline Calculator | Parlay Calculator | Martingale Calculator | Kelly Criterion Calculator | NFL Point Spread Calculator | NFL Prop Bet Calculator | Odds Calculator | Sports Betting ROI Calculator
Implied Probability Calculator
Enter the American odds in the space provided and hit “calculate” to get the percent value. Note that you must place the “-” in front of the favorite’s moneyline odds to get the proper implied probability.
Confident in Your Pick? Claim Your Welcome Bonus at FanDuel Now
What Is A Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet functions as a straight-up wager on which team will win a game. This kind of bet doesn’t involve a point spread.
The underdog on the moneyline pays out at greater odds than the favorite. Sportsbooks generally display the moneyline, point spread, and total (Over/Under) odds for a game, but all three function as separate bets.
Here’s a look at how FanDuel Sportsbook presented the lines on Super Bowl 58 a few weeks before the 2023 NFL Draft:
FanDuel Sportsbook Super Bowl 2024 Lines
| Super Bowl Odds | BetMGM | Caesars | FanDuel |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | +550 | +525 | +600 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +600 | +650 | +600 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +700 | +700 | +700 |
| Miami Dolphins | +900 | +800 | +1000 |
| Buffalo Bills | +900 | +1000 | +950 |
US sportsbooks generally display American odds, with potential payouts denoted by the “+” or “-“ in front of the odds. The “+” indicates the underdog on the moneyline, while the “-“ denotes the favorite.
FanDuel has the Kansas City Chiefs as the Super Bowl 2024 favorites paying out at (+600) futures odds. The sportsbook puts the Philadelphia Eagles as the top NFC favorite at (+800).
Note that the point spread and totals columns for Super Bowl 2024 also display an American Odds payout. Moneyline bets don’t involve any kind of point spread, however. For futures bets like this, sportsbooks are only concerned with the straight-up winner of the championship.
Finding Value In A Moneyline Bet
You can convert the moneyline odds into an implied chance of winning for each team using an implied probability calculator.
Here’s an example using two NFL teams: A (-115) moneyline on the Raiders implies that Las Vegas has a 53.49% chance of winning. Jacksonville’s (-105) odds convert to a 51.22% chance of winning.
Observant bettors look for value in moneyline bets, and that assessment requires converting the odds into implied probability. If you think the Jaguars have better than a 51.22% chance of winning, for instance, the Jaguars (-105) line presents value.
What is an Implied Probability Calculator?
You can plug in any moneyline odds into the Gaming Today Implied Probability Calculator (at the top of this page) and convert those odds into implied probability. Other sports betting odds calculators include tools that allow you to calculate moneyline odds or the house edge by inputting the sportsbook’s offered moneyline odds.
Our implied probability calculator works the same way. Simply input the moneyline odds on either side of a bet, and the Gaming Today Implied Probability Calculator gives you an instant calculation of that team’s implied probability.
For “+” moneyline odds, simply input the number without the “+” sign. So, if the Jaguars were +105 odds instead of -105, for instance, just type “105” into the “American Odds” field in the calculator.
After inputting “105” and clicking “Calculate” we see that Jacksonville’s implied winning probability would be 48.78% if their odds were +105.
For “-” moneyline odds, be sure to include the “-” sign in front of the inputted number. Calculating the Las Vegas (-115) moneyline odds yields a 53.49% implied winning probability for the Raiders.
Using an Implied Probability Calculator to Place a Bet
This Implied Probability Calculator converts American odds into implied probability. This calculation converts the odds into a form that is easier to quantify: the percent likelihood of the event occurring. This type of calculator includes the sportsbook’s margin, which means the combined probabilities don’t add up to exactly 100%.
How The Implied Probability Calculator Works
Implied probability is most useful when determining the sportsbook’s edge over the bettor. It is important to note: this is not the margin/vig/juice. This is simply the advantage they have in being profitable over the bettor. Though it will never tell you which team to select, determining the percent implied probability over 100% will point out lines where the book’s advantage is lower. In being a successful sports bettor every percentage point counts and each point the book gives back is one more win toward profitability for the bettor.
Implied Probability Calculation for Negative American Odds
Calculating implied probability is a little more complex for American odds. Let’s take the classic coin flip example where we know the actual probability is 50%: a -110 bet on Heads. Once again, the calculation is slightly different for minus odds versus plus odds.
Implied Probability = (-1*(Odds)) / (-1(Odds) + 100)
Which looks like:
Implied Probability = (-1*(-110)) / (-1(-110) + 100)
or:
52.4% or 0.524 = 110 / 210
That number should be familiar to experienced bettors as the break-even winning percentage bettors shoot for. Because -110 on one side of a bet usually means -110 on the other side too, we can add all the probabilities (in this case another -110 probability) to determine the sportsbook’s edge.
(Heads Probability + Tails Probability) – 1 = Sportsbook’s Edge
or:
(0.524 + 0.524) – 1 = 0.048 or 4.8%
Ideally, you should be looking for bets with the lowest sportsbook edge you can. It is a subtle edge in sports betting, but remember the difference between winning at 52% and 53% is a world of difference.
Implied Probability Calculation for Positive American Odds
Let’s work a positive odds example. We’ll use the following moneyline bet where the favorite is -190 and the underdog is +160. First, we break down the implied probability on +160 odds :
Implied Probability = 100 / (Odds + 100)
or:
38.4% or 0.384 = 100 / (160 + 100)
To get the other outcome, we calculate the -190 odds:
65.5% or 0.655 = (-1(-190)) / (-1(-190) + 100)
In the above example we see that the sportsbook’s advantage is:
(0.384 + 0.655) – 1 = 3.9%
What this tells us is that, with no other information, a bet on the -190/+160 is more likely to be successful over the long term than the -110/-110 example.
What Is Line Movement?
Sportsbooks install moneyline odds on each game that gives the house a slight edge over the player in the long run.
In the game example above, for instance, the implied probabilities for the Raiders and Jaguars add up to more than 100%. This happens because the sportsbooks offer this bet with the built-in house edge.
The sportsbooks aim to get enough bets on both sides of the Hall of Fame game to allow the house to make money no matter what. If the public puts heavy betting interest on one team, the sportsbook will start to shift the line the other way, with the goal of producing more wagers on the other team.
Legal Online Sports Betting in the US
The following states (plus Washington, D.C., and Ontario) have — or soon may have — legal online sports betting apps where you can sign up to place a legal bet in 2023:
- Arizona sports betting
- Arkansas sports betting
- Colorado sports betting
- Connecticut sports betting
- Delaware sports betting
- Illinois sports betting
- Indiana sports betting
- Iowa sports betting
- Kansas sports betting
- Kentucky sports betting
- Louisiana sports betting
- Maine sports betting
- Maryland sports betting
- Massachusetts sports betting
- Michigan sports betting
- Mississippi sports betting
- Montana sports betting
- Nevada sports betting
- New Hampshire sports betting
- New Jersey sports betting
- New York sports betting
- North Carolina sports betting
- Ohio sports betting
- Oregon sports betting
- Pennsylvania sports betting
- Rhode Island sports betting
- Tennessee sports betting
- Vermont sports betting
- Virginia sports betting
- Washington DC sports betting
- Washington sports betting
- West Virginia sports betting
- Wyoming sports betting
Top US Online Sportsbooks
Implied Probability Calculator FAQ
Anytime you make a moneyline bet. Finding value on the moneyline requires that you convert the odds into an implied probability.
Once you have the implied probability for a moneyline bet, you’ll know the percent likelihood of it becoming a winner.
Yes, it is legal to use an implied probability calculator. Sharp bettors use tools like Gaming Today’s Implied Probability Calculator for every wager they make.
Understanding how implied probability works related to moneyline odds is crucial to a winning betting strategy.
Each sportsbook employs bookmakers, tasked with setting the odds on each game. After setting a line, the sportsbook will shift the odds one way or the other if the public is heavily favoring one side of the bet.
To convert “+” American odds into fractional odds, you must divide the odds by 100 and convert to a fraction. To convert +160 into fractional odds, for instance, divide 160 by 100 (160/100) and reduce that fraction to 8/5. American odds of +160 translates to 8/5 fractional odds.
To convert “-” American odds, divide 100 by the odds and convert to a fraction. As an example, for -160 odds, calculate as 100/160, and reduce to 5/8 fractional odds.
The US legal online sports betting industry includes several high-quality platforms competing for customers.
Some of the top brands in the US include FanDuel, BetRivers, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook and DraftKings.
About the Author
