# Implied Probability Calculator

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Gaming Today’s Implied Probability Calculator takes a bit of algebraic work out of the equation. Use it to convert any moneyline number into an implied probability of winning.

Moneyline bets represent the most straightforward way to bet on sports. A moneyline wager calls on bettors to simply choose the winner of a game, with no point spread involved.

All moneyline odds can be converted into implied probability, breaking down each side’s chances of winning as implied by the sportsbook’s moneyline odds for the game.

## Implied Probability Calculator

Enter the American odds in the space provided and hit “calculate” to get the percent value. Note that you must place the “-” in front of the favorite’s moneyline odds to get the proper implied probability.

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## What Is A Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet functions as a straight-up wager on which team will win a game. This kind of bet doesn’t involve a point spread.

The underdog on the moneyline pays out at greater odds than the favorite. Sportsbooks generally display the moneyline, point spread, and total (Over/Under) odds for a game, but all three function as separate bets.

Here’s a look at how FanDuel Sportsbook presented the lines on Super Bowl 58 a few weeks before the 2023 NFL Draft:

### FanDuel Sportsbook Super Bowl 2024 Lines

Super Bowl OddsBetMGMCaesarsFanDuel
San Francisco 49ers+550+525+600
Kansas City Chiefs+600+650+600
Miami Dolphins+900+800+1000
Buffalo Bills+900+1000+950

US sportsbooks generally display American odds, with potential payouts denoted by the “+” or “-“ in front of the odds. The “+” indicates the underdog on the moneyline, while the “-“ denotes the favorite.

FanDuel has the Kansas City Chiefs as the Super Bowl 2024 favorites paying out at (+600) futures odds. The sportsbook puts the Philadelphia Eagles as the top NFC favorite at (+800).

Note that the point spread and totals columns for Super Bowl 2024 also display an American Odds payout. Moneyline bets don’t involve any kind of point spread, however. For futures bets like this, sportsbooks are only concerned with the straight-up winner of the championship.

### Finding Value In A Moneyline Bet

You can convert the moneyline odds into an implied chance of winning for each team using an implied probability calculator.

Here’s an example using two NFL teams: A (-115) moneyline on the Raiders implies that Las Vegas has a 53.49% chance of winning. Jacksonville’s (-105) odds convert to a 51.22% chance of winning.

Observant bettors look for value in moneyline bets, and that assessment requires converting the odds into implied probability. If you think the Jaguars have better than a 51.22% chance of winning, for instance, the Jaguars (-105) line presents value.

## What is an Implied Probability Calculator?

You can plug in any moneyline odds into the Gaming Today Implied Probability Calculator (at the top of this page) and convert those odds into implied probability. Other sports betting odds calculators include tools that allow you to calculate moneyline odds or the house edge by inputting the sportsbook’s offered moneyline odds.

Our implied probability calculator works the same way. Simply input the moneyline odds on either side of a bet, and the Gaming Today Implied Probability Calculator gives you an instant calculation of that team’s implied probability.

For “+” moneyline odds, simply input the number without the “+” sign. So, if the Jaguars were +105 odds instead of -105, for instance, just type “105” into the “American Odds” field in the calculator.

After inputting “105” and clicking “Calculate” we see that Jacksonville’s implied winning probability would be 48.78% if their odds were +105.

For “-” moneyline odds, be sure to include the “-” sign in front of the inputted number. Calculating the Las Vegas (-115) moneyline odds yields a 53.49% implied winning probability for the Raiders.

## Using an Implied Probability Calculator to Place a Bet

This Implied Probability Calculator converts American odds into implied probability. This calculation converts the odds into a form that is easier to quantify: the percent likelihood of the event occurring. This type of calculator includes the sportsbook’s margin, which means the combined probabilities don’t add up to exactly 100%.

## How The Implied Probability Calculator Works

Implied probability is most useful when determining the sportsbook’s edge over the bettor. It is important to note: this is not the margin/vig/juice. This is simply the advantage they have in being profitable over the bettor. Though it will never tell you which team to select, determining the percent implied probability over 100% will point out lines where the book’s advantage is lower. In being a successful sports bettor every percentage point counts and each point the book gives back is one more win toward profitability for the bettor.

## Implied Probability Calculation for Negative American Odds

Calculating implied probability is a little more complex for American odds. Let’s take the classic coin flip example where we know the actual probability is 50%: a -110 bet on Heads. Once again, the calculation is slightly different for minus odds versus plus odds.

Implied Probability = (-1*(Odds)) / (-1(Odds) + 100)

Which looks like:

Implied Probability = (-1*(-110)) / (-1(-110) + 100)

or:

52.4% or 0.524 = 110 / 210

That number should be familiar to experienced bettors as the break-even winning percentage bettors shoot for. Because -110 on one side of a bet usually means -110 on the other side too, we can add all the probabilities (in this case another -110 probability) to determine the sportsbook’s edge.

(Heads Probability + Tails Probability) – 1 = Sportsbook’s Edge

or:

(0.524 + 0.524) – 1 = 0.048 or 4.8%

Ideally, you should be looking for bets with the lowest sportsbook edge you can. It is a subtle edge in sports betting, but remember the difference between winning at 52% and 53% is a world of difference.

## Implied Probability Calculation for Positive American Odds

Let’s work a positive odds example. We’ll use the following moneyline bet where the favorite is -190 and the underdog is +160. First, we break down the implied probability on +160 odds :

Implied Probability = 100 / (Odds + 100)

or:

38.4% or 0.384 = 100 / (160 + 100)

To get the other outcome, we calculate the -190 odds:

65.5% or 0.655 = (-1(-190)) / (-1(-190) + 100)

In the above example we see that the sportsbook’s advantage is:

(0.384 + 0.655) – 1 = 3.9%

What this tells us is that, with no other information, a bet on the -190/+160 is more likely to be successful over the long term than the -110/-110 example.

## What Is Line Movement?

Sportsbooks install moneyline odds on each game that gives the house a slight edge over the player in the long run.

In the game example above, for instance, the implied probabilities for the Raiders and Jaguars add up to more than 100%. This happens because the sportsbooks offer this bet with the built-in house edge.

The sportsbooks aim to get enough bets on both sides of the Hall of Fame game to allow the house to make money no matter what. If the public puts heavy betting interest on one team, the sportsbook will start to shift the line the other way, with the goal of producing more wagers on the other team.

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## Implied Probability Calculator FAQ

When should I use an implied probability calculator?

Anytime you make a moneyline bet. Finding value on the moneyline requires that you convert the odds into an implied probability.

Once you have the implied probability for a moneyline bet, you’ll know the percent likelihood of it becoming a winner.

Is it legal to use an implied probability calculator?

Yes, it is legal to use an implied probability calculator. Sharp bettors use tools like Gaming Today’s Implied Probability Calculator for every wager they make.

Understanding how implied probability works related to moneyline odds is crucial to a winning betting strategy.

Who sets the odds at online sportsbooks?

Each sportsbook employs bookmakers, tasked with setting the odds on each game. After setting a line, the sportsbook will shift the odds one way or the other if the public is heavily favoring one side of the bet.

How do I convert American odds to fractional odds?

To convert  “+” American odds into fractional odds, you must divide the odds by 100 and convert to a fraction. To convert +160 into fractional odds, for instance, divide 160 by 100 (160/100) and reduce that fraction to 8/5. American odds of +160 translates to 8/5 fractional odds.

To convert “-” American odds, divide 100 by the odds and convert to a fraction. As an example, for -160 odds, calculate as 100/160, and reduce to 5/8 fractional odds.

What is the best online sportsbook in the US?

The US legal online sports betting industry includes several high-quality platforms competing for customers.

Some of the top brands in the US include FanDuel, BetRivers, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook and DraftKings.

### Russ Mitchell

###### Senior Writer
Russ Mitchell has been a senior writer at Gaming Today since February 2023 after joining Catena Media in 2021. Mitchell's background includes 25 years of news, sports, and gaming industry coverage. In his free time, Mitchell enjoys movies and games, and spending time with his son, Keegan. He roots for Iowa's four Division I programs and is still waiting patiently for the Padres, Chargers, or Clippers to win their first league championship.

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