Implied Probability Calculator
Determine the likelihood of an event occurring based on the betting odds with Gaming Today’s Implied Probability Calculator.
This calculator can be used for any bet, from moneylines and point spreads to player props and futures. The result will be displayed as a percentage you can compare with your probability assessment.
Implied Probability Calculator
Our Implied Probability Calculator is a simple tool that helps you determine the likelihood of certain betting outcomes without much hassle. There are just a few key terms to know.
- Implied Probability: The likelihood of an outcome actually occurring as implied by the odds a sportsbook sets for that outcome. Displayed as a percentage.
- American Odds: The odds of the bet for which you wish to calculate the implied probability.
- Win %: The probability implied by the odds you plug in.
*A betting opportunity is available if you think a team has at least a 55% chance of winning a game and the sportsbook’s implied probability is lower.
How To Use the Implied Probability Calculator
Enter American Odds
Enter the odds provided by your sportsbook of choice. If your odds have a “-” sign in front of them, ensure that is entered into the calculator.
Click Calculate
The calculator will output the implied probability of an event occurring based on the odds entered.
Collect Data
The “Win %” row represents the implied probability of your bet hitting. This Implied Probability Calculator includes the sportsbook’s margin, which means it is slightly less than the true probability of the event. To find the true probability of your bet occurring, reference Gaming Today’s No Vig Fair Odds.
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Implied Probability Calculator Example
Let’s use the Implied Probability Calculator to figure out the likelihood of a particular outcome. First, head to the sportsbook where you intend to place your bet and look at the odds. Here, we’ll use odds for a Thursday Night Football game from bet365. This game was played already, but the odds provide a helpful example.
Let’s say we want to place a bet on the Buffalo Bills to cover the spread. We’ll plug in the odds of -105 in the “American Odds” field. The percentage in the picture below is a placeholder, not the final calculation.
Now, we need to click “Calculate” for the Implied Probability Calculator to show us the percentage chance of the bet winning:
Based on the odds, bet365 has the Buffalo Bills at a 51.22% chance of covering the spread. If that’s a higher percentage chance than you would’ve expected, this might be a good bet. If it’s lower, you could consider a different wager.
You can click “Reset” and plug in new odds as many times as you wish.
More Sports Betting Tools
Here, we highlight some other calculators and sports betting tools to help bettors make the most of every wager.
| 🛠️ Sports Betting Calculator | 💡 How it Works |
|---|---|
| 3-Way No Vig Calculator | For events where a tie is possible (like soccer), the three-way fair odds calculator eliminates the vig and presents the odds as a percentage (implied probability) to better clarify the three options. |
| Arbitrage Calculator | This calculator will help you determine if betting on two different sides on the same match on two different sportsbooks will move the odds to give you a guaranteed profit. |
| Fair Odds Calculator | This one also strips out the vig from the odds, but designed for two possible results: win or lose. |
| Futures Calculator | Determine implied probability based on all futures odds for a given sport. |
| Kelly Criterion Calculator | Calculate how much of your bankroll you should bet based on the probability of winning an outcome. |
| Martingale Calculator | This calculator will determine how much you’ll need to wager to recoup losses. |
| Moneyline Calculator | The most straightforward calculator of them all. Simply enter your odds and the wager, and see the potential win. |
| NFL Prop Bet Calculator | An NFL prop bet calculator attempts to find the fair price for a large number of props based on a limited number of inputs. |
| NFL Spread Calculator | This tool will help you compare spreads at different sportsbooks to determine the better bet. |
| Odds Calculator | An automated way to convert a form of odds into a different form. For example, American odds to decimal or fractional odds. |
| Parlay Calculator | Before you place a parlay bet, use the parlay calculator to ensure you’re taking a higher risk for a worthwhile win potential. |
| ROI Calculator | Calculate the projected gains from a bet versus the total cost of the bet to determine your potential return on investment (ROI). |
| Super Bowl Squares | Online super bowl squares or football squares with friends (no accounts needed). |
Implied Probability Calculator FAQ
You can convert sportsbook odds directly into implied probability percentages using Gaming Today’s Implied Probability Calculator. The tool helps you determine the probability of a specific bet being successful.
You can use the Implied Probability Calculator for pretty much any bet. It’s particularly helpful for moneylines, totals, and point spreads, but it certainly isn’t limited to those. You can use it to get a read on how likely your desired outcome is.
Implied probability is the chance (displayed as a percentage) of a specific outcome coming to fruition. It is “implied” because it’s extrapolated from a sportsbook’s odds.
The back-end calculations for implied probability are complex.
For negative odds: Implied Probability = Odds / (Odds + 100) * 100.
For positive odds: Implied Probability = 100 / (Odds + 100) * 100.
Sportsbooks use all sorts of external factors and internal expertise alongside math models to calculate odds.
In an example on this page, we used odds of -105 to determine an implied probability of 51.22%. That bet has an implied 51.22% chance of hitting.
True odds take the sportsbook’s cut — vig or vigorish — out of the mix, while implied odds keep them factored in. Whenever you’re betting at a sportsbook, we recommend using implied probability for this reason.
