Politics Prediction Markets & Election Odds | July 2026
Political prediction markets let you trade on real-world outcomes, from control of Congress to presidential elections, with contract prices reflecting the market’s live view of the odds. These markets run under CFTC oversight, a regulated, legal way to trade on political outcomes in the US, since traditional sportsbooks cannot offer this kind of contract.
What are political prediction markets?
Political prediction markets are regulated platforms where traders buy and sell contracts tied to real-world political outcomes, like which party controls the Senate or who wins the next presidential race. Each contract’s price reflects the market’s current view of the odds, moving in real time as new information comes in.
Every contract trades between 0¢ and $1, and that price is the market’s implied probability. If a contract on a candidate winning trades at 62¢, the market is pricing that outcome at roughly 62%. If the outcome resolves “yes,” the contract settles at $1. If it resolves “no,” it settles at $0.
Kalshi and Polymarket are the two largest election contract markets, covering elections, legislation, and other political events. Unlike a sportsbook, there’s no fixed-odds line set by a bookmaker. Prices move continuously as traders react to news, polling, and each other’s positions, which is why prediction markets are increasingly used as a real-time gauge of political sentiment, not just a place to trade on it. Traders sometimes call these political futures, since a contract’s price constantly updates to reflect the market’s best guess at the future outcome.
Is trading on political outcomes legal in the US?
Yes. Trading on political outcomes is legal in the US, just not through a traditional sportsbook. Platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket offer CFTC-regulated event contracts, which fall under federal derivatives law rather than state gambling law, making political event contracts a legal, federally regulated way to trade on elections nationwide.
Sportsbooks are licensed and regulated on a state-by-state basis, and most state gambling laws simply don’t address elections or other political outcomes at all. That’s a big part of why sportsbook apps can’t list a market on who wins a Senate seat. Prediction markets sidestep that state-by-state system entirely. Kalshi and Polymarket both operate through CFTC-regulated exchange structures, meaning their political contracts are treated as financial derivatives rather than gambling products, and that federal framework is what allows political event contracts to trade nationwide instead of state by state.
A handful of states have pushed back specifically on sports-related event contracts, so availability can still vary depending on the market type and platform. If you already follow the sports betting debate in your state, it’s worth applying that same instinct here, checking a platform’s current state availability before funding an account. Because this is a fast-moving regulatory area, treat any specific state list as a snapshot rather than a permanent answer, and confirm current availability directly on the platform before you trade.
What political markets can you trade?
Congressional control markets are the most heavily traded political category, covering which party holds the House and Senate majority, along with individual toss-up races in key districts. Contracts also exist on leadership fights inside each chamber, giving traders a way to react to primary results, retirements, and shifting district maps well before a general election settles anything.
Beyond elections themselves, PredictIt lists markets on legislative and appointment outcomes, whether a bill clears the Senate, whether a Cabinet nominee gets confirmed, or whether a Supreme Court vacancy opens before a certain date. These markets move on hearing schedules and vote counts rather than polling, which rewards traders who track the legislative calendar as closely as election season itself.
Global politics markets extend the same model beyond US borders, covering foreign election outcomes, coalition government formations, and international policy decisions. Crypto.com is one of the platforms that leans into this global angle, pairing its US political contracts with markets tied to elections and political events in other countries.
| Market Category | Example Contracts | Where to Trade |
|---|---|---|
| 🏛️ Congress Control | House majority, Senate majority, Speaker of the House | Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt |
| 📜 Legislation & Nominations | Bill passage, Cabinet confirmations, agency rulings | PredictIt, Kalshi |
| ⚖️ Supreme Court | Vacancy timing, confirmation outcomes | PredictIt, Kalshi |
| 🌍 Global Politics | Foreign elections, coalition governments, international policy | Crypto.com, Polymarket |
Prediction markets aren’t limited to politics. If you’re also interested in sports or financial event contracts, we’ve reviewed several platforms built around those categories instead, including Underdog, ProphetX, NinjaTrader, and Interactive Brokers.
Prediction market odds vs. polls: which is more accurate?
Polls and prediction markets measure different things. A poll captures a snapshot of how a sample of voters say they’ll vote, filtered through modeling assumptions like turnout and likely-voter screens. A prediction market captures how traders are pricing the outcome in real time, using their own money, and it updates continuously as new information, like early voting data or late-breaking news, comes in rather than waiting for the next survey cycle.
The 2024 US presidential election became a widely cited example of this gap. In the final days before the election, several major prediction markets priced one candidate’s win probability notably higher than the polling averages suggested, and the eventual result lined up with the market pricing rather than the polling consensus. That outcome fueled a broader conversation about whether markets can pick up on shifts, like late movement among undecided voters, faster than traditional polling models.
That doesn’t make prediction markets infallible. Markets can be thinner and more volatile in smaller races, and pricing can be skewed by a handful of large traders when liquidity is low. Still, the growing accessibility of these markets, including through mainstream platforms like Robinhood, has made real-time, capital-backed pricing available to a much wider audience than in past election cycles. We treat that pricing as a useful, real-time complement to polling, not a replacement for it.
Political trading strategy basics
Political markets move on a different rhythm than sports or financial contracts, so a few basics matter before you commit real money.
- Watch the calendar, not just the polls. Price often reacts to scheduled events, like debates, hearings, or filing deadlines, before public polling catches up, so knowing what’s coming next matters as much as today’s number.
- Size positions for thin liquidity. Many political contracts, especially outside the biggest races, trade in smaller volume, so a single large order can move the price. Treat position size as a risk decision, not just a conviction call.
- Diversify across contract types. Spreading trades across different races, chambers, and market categories reduces how much a single unexpected outcome can affect your overall position.
None of this guarantees a profitable trade, but it’s the same discipline that applies to any market with moving prices.
Best political prediction market sites
Political event contracts aren’t limited to niche exchanges. Regulated platforms like Polymarket, Crypto.com, OG, and DraftKings Predictions all give traders a way to take a position on political outcomes, ranging from a dedicated politics-first exchange to a sportsbook-adjacent app that added political markets alongside its existing sports and finance offerings. Here’s what each platform actually offers traders interested in politics specifically.
Polymarket
Polymarket has grown into one of the largest prediction markets available to US traders, built around a live, continuously priced exchange rather than a fixed-odds format. Political event contracts are one of its deepest categories, alongside sports, crypto, and culture, which makes it a natural stop for traders whose main interest is political outcomes specifically.
On the political side, Polymarket covers a wide range of categories beyond just the next presidential race, including control of Congress, individual toss-up seats, and cabinet or legislative outcomes. It also extends into international elections and broader geopolitical event contracts, giving traders exposure to political markets well beyond US borders.
Because pricing updates continuously as traders buy and sell, Polymarket tends to feel more like a live market than a static prediction page, which suits traders who want to react to breaking political news as it happens rather than wait for the next data point.
New users can currently claim Polymarket’s welcome offer using promo code GTODAY: deposit $20 and receive a $50 trading bonus, giving new traders extra room to explore political markets and other categories from the start.
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Polymarket Pros
- Deep political category range | Polymarket covers far more than the presidential race, with active markets on Congress control, individual races, and international elections and geopolitical events.
- Continuous, live-feeling pricing | Prices update in real time as traders act, which makes it easier to react to breaking political developments rather than waiting on a slower-moving market.
Polymarket Shortcomings
- Limited state availability | Polymarket isn't live in every state yet, so traders should confirm eligibility in their state before creating an account, especially if political markets are the main draw.
- Bonus comes as trading credit, not cash | The $50 welcome offer is trading credit rather than a cash deposit, so it's worth reading the terms before assuming it behaves the same as regular account funds.
Crypto.com
Crypto.com Predictions is the event-contract trading product built into the broader Crypto.com app, giving users a way to trade on real-world outcomes without leaving a platform many already use for crypto. Contracts are fully CFTC-regulated, covering categories that include politics, sports, finance, and culture.
On the political side, Crypto.com’s contracts extend beyond a single presidential race into US elections, legislative outcomes, and global political events, reflecting the platform’s broader push into international markets. Around major political moments, Crypto.com has also run seasonal contests with leaderboards and prize pools for traders who correctly call outcomes, adding a competitive layer on top of standard trading.
Crypto.com Predictions also connects to the wider Crypto.com ecosystem. Traders who stake CRO for higher-tier cards can unlock additional account benefits across the app, so the value here builds the more you’re already using Crypto.com for other things, rather than existing as a fully standalone prediction product.
Instead of a simple deposit-match bonus, new users can currently claim Crypto.com’s sign-up offer to earn CRO Rewards, worth up to 1 BTC, by completing a short in-app task after signing up.
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Crypto.com Pros
- Global political reach | Crypto.com's political contracts extend beyond domestic races into international elections and broader geopolitical events, useful for traders whose interest isn't limited to US politics.
- Election-season contests | Around major political moments, leaderboard-style contests with prize pools add a competitive layer beyond standard buy-and-sell trading.
Crypto.com Shortcomings
- Rewards favor existing Crypto.com users | The sign-up incentive is tied to the broader Crypto.com and CRO ecosystem, so traders who only want prediction markets may get less value than traders already active elsewhere in the app.
- No standalone welcome bonus | Unlike a simple deposit-match offer, there's no flat cash-style trading bonus specifically for Predictions, so new traders shouldn't expect an immediate bonus the way they might on other platforms.
OG
OG is the standalone prediction market app built by Crypto.com, running on the same CFTC-regulated exchange infrastructure as Crypto.com’s own trading products but operating as its own separate platform. Launched in 2026, OG covers event contracts across sports, finance, culture, and politics.
OG’s political contracts sit alongside a much larger sports catalog, covering categories like election outcomes, cabinet and appointment decisions, and broader policy questions. It isn’t built as a politics-first exchange the way some competitors are, but political markets are a consistent part of its lineup rather than an afterthought.
The platform is designed to feel more guided than some larger exchanges, with a simpler market menu and social features like leaderboards layered on top of standard trading. As with other regulated event-contract platforms, traders can sell a position before an outcome is decided rather than waiting until it resolves.
New users can currently claim OG’s welcome offer, worth up to $100 in rewards. It’s milestone-based rather than automatic, requiring sign-up, identity verification, a qualifying deposit, and qualifying trades completed within the promotion window.
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OG Pros
- Guided, beginner-friendly structure | A simpler market menu and social features like leaderboards make OG approachable for traders newer to political event contracts specifically.
- Flexible position management | Traders can sell a political contract before the outcome is decided rather than only being able to hold it to resolution.
OG Shortcomings
- Sports-first catalog | OG's core market lineup leans heavily toward sports, so political coverage is comparatively narrower than its sports offering.
- Multi-step bonus | The welcome offer requires verification, a deposit, and qualifying trades within the promo window, so the full $100 isn't available immediately at sign-up.
DraftKings Predictions
DraftKings Predictions is DraftKings’ standalone prediction market app, running on its own CFTC-regulated exchange rather than the state-by-state licensing that governs its sportsbook. The platform’s roots are in sports, but its event-contract lineup has grown to include politics, economics, crypto, and culture.
Political contracts on DraftKings Predictions cover presidential and congressional races, primaries, governor races, and party control of Congress, along with contracts on individual candidate matchups. Because political outcomes often take months or years to resolve, these markets tend to stay open much longer than a typical sports contract, which suits traders comfortable holding a position over an extended stretch.
The app carries over DraftKings’ familiar sportsbook-style interface, making it an easy entry point for existing DraftKings users moving into event-contract trading. That simplicity comes with fewer advanced tools than some competitors, though. There’s no full order book or limit-order functionality, so traders have less control over entry price than on more exchange-style platforms.
New users can currently claim a welcome offer worth Prediction Dollars after placing a first qualifying trade, credited as non-withdrawable trading credit rather than cash.
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DK Predicts Pros
- Long-running political contracts | Presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial markets stay open well past a typical sports contract's window, suiting traders with longer-term political views.
- Easy entry for existing DraftKings users | The familiar sportsbook-style interface makes political event-contract trading approachable for anyone already using DraftKings' other products.
DK Predicts Shortcomings
- Thinner trading tools | No limit orders or full order book means less control over entry price on political contracts than on more exchange-style platforms.
- Political depth still developing | Political markets are real and active, but the category still trails more established, politics-first exchanges in overall variety.
How to trade on politics and elections
Trading on political outcomes follows a similar process across most regulated prediction markets, whether you want to trade on the presidential election, congressional control, or a single state race. Here's how to get started.
Choose a regulated platform
Start with a CFTC-regulated prediction market that lists political contracts, such as the platforms covered above. Confirm political markets are available in your state before signing up.
Create and verify your account
Sign up with your basic details, then complete identity verification. Most platforms require this before you can fund an account or open a position.
Fund your account
Add money using one of the platform’s accepted payment methods. Some platforms also offer a welcome bonus for new traders tied to your first funded trade.
Find a political market
Browse political contracts by category, such as presidential election odds, congressional control, or an individual race, and review the contract price and settlement rules before trading.
Enter your trade
Decide whether you think the outcome will happen and buy the “Yes” contract, or buy “No” if you don’t. Enter your trade amount and confirm the order, then track your position as the price moves.
2026 midterm election odds and predictions
The 2026 midterms give prediction markets two headline questions to price: which party controls the House, and which party controls the Senate. Traders can take a position on either chamber independently, and contract prices adjust continuously as primaries, retirements, and district-level developments shift the picture, rather than waiting for the next scheduled poll. Because the midterm picture keeps shifting all the way to election day, these markets stay some of the most actively traded political contracts on any platform that lists them.
Some platforms offer a single contract on which party wins a chamber majority, while others let you trade individual district or state races and build your own view of the full picture. That means midterm trading can range from one straightforward position on House control to dozens of smaller contracts across competitive districts. For traders who want a broader view, some contracts also price margin-of-control outcomes, such as how large a majority a party ends up with, rather than a simple yes-or-no on which party wins.
Governor and other state-level races are also active trading categories, particularly in states seen as competitive, and these races tend to draw more attention as election day approaches. Not every governorship is up for election in the same cycle, though, so the number of active state-level contracts can vary significantly from one midterm to the next. It’s worth checking which governor races are actually on the ballot in 2026 before assuming a particular state is in play.
As with any political contract, prices here reflect the market’s current view rather than a guaranteed outcome, so it’s worth checking a platform’s own market page for the latest House, Senate, and governor pricing before trading, especially as new markets open closer to election day.
Presidential election odds (2028)
Presidential prediction markets open years before the actual election, and 2028 contracts are already trading even though neither party has chosen a nominee. That gives traders a way to price the race in stages, long before the field is set.
Early activity tends to split into two layers. Nomination contracts ask which candidate wins a specific party’s nomination, and these usually see the most trading activity while the field is still forming. General election contracts ask which party, or which specific matchup, wins the presidency overall, and those tend to firm up once each party’s nominee is closer to settled.
Because the field can still change substantially, from candidates entering or exiting the race to shifts in early polling and fundraising, prices on 2028 contracts can move sharply on a single piece of news. That makes this one of the more volatile political categories to trade this far from the actual election, and it’s worth treating early pricing as a snapshot of current sentiment rather than a settled outcome.
As with the House and Senate midterm markets, it’s worth checking a platform’s own market page for current presidential contract pricing before trading, since positions can shift quickly as the field develops.
Where to track live politics odds
Looking for real-time movement instead of a static snapshot? Polymarket’s politics page shows live pricing across House, Senate, and presidential contracts, continuously updating as traders react to breaking political news. We don’t run our own live odds feed on this page, so it’s a straightforward place to check current pricing between our scheduled updates here. Bookmark it if you want to watch a specific race move in real time.
Political Prediction Markets FAQ
Yes. CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket let US traders take a position on election outcomes through federally regulated event contracts, separate from state sports betting law. Sportsbooks can’t offer this kind of contract, since political outcomes fall under federal derivatives oversight rather than state gaming regulation.
Political prediction markets are regulated platforms where traders buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes, like which party controls Congress or who wins a presidential race. Contract prices move continuously and reflect the market’s current view of the odds, settling at $1 if the outcome happens or $0 if it doesn’t.
Several CFTC-regulated platforms offer political contracts, including Polymarket, Crypto.com, OG, and DraftKings Predictions, each with a different market lineup and depth of political coverage. Check state availability and each platform’s political category before creating an account, since both access and market depth can vary by platform.
Election odds on prediction markets work through contract pricing rather than fixed odds. A contract priced at 62 cents reflects a roughly 62% implied probability of that outcome. Prices update continuously as traders buy and sell, and a winning contract settles at $1 while a losing one settles at $0.
They measure different things. Polls capture a sample of stated voter intent, while prediction markets reflect real-time, capital-backed pricing that updates continuously. In some past elections, market pricing has lined up more closely with the eventual result than polling averages did, though markets can also be thin or volatile in smaller races.
Yes. Several regulated platforms list House and Senate control contracts for the 2026 midterms, along with individual district and governor race contracts on some platforms. Availability depends on the platform and your state, so check each platform’s current market list before trading, since new contracts often open as election day approaches.
Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange with a broad political market lineup alongside sports, finance, and other categories. Polymarket also covers a wide range of political contracts, extending into international elections and geopolitical events. Both are regulated, so the better fit often comes down to market variety and trading experience rather than legitimacy.
A contract’s price is its implied probability. If a “Yes” contract trades at 40 cents, the market is pricing that outcome at roughly 40%. As new information comes in, the price moves up or down to reflect the market’s updated view, and a settled contract pays $1 for a correct outcome or $0 for an incorrect one.
In most cases, yes. Prediction market contracts can typically be sold before settlement if there’s a buyer at the current price, letting you lock in a gain or cut a loss without waiting for the outcome. Liquidity varies by market, so a thinly traded contract may be harder to exit quickly.
Sportsbooks are licensed state by state under gambling law, and most states don’t extend that framework to elections or political outcomes. Prediction markets operate under federal CFTC oversight instead, a separate regulatory framework that specifically allows political event contracts, regardless of individual state gambling licensing rules.
How we source and update this page
Pricing and market details referenced throughout this page are reviewed against each platform’s own listed markets on a regular basis rather than pulled from a live feed.
Political neutrality
GamingToday’s coverage of political prediction markets is strictly informational. We don’t endorse any candidate, party, or political outcome, and nothing on this page should be read as a prediction or recommendation about how any election will turn out. Contract pricing referenced here reflects trader activity on regulated exchanges, not editorial opinion.
About this page
This guide is part of GamingToday’s broader coverage of regulated real-money gaming, including online casinos, social casinos, and sweepstakes casinos.
Responsible trading and disclosures
Prediction markets involve real financial risk, and a correct prediction is never guaranteed. If trading stops feeling like a hobby, resources are available for help: call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org. You must be 18 or older to trade on the platforms covered here.
Affiliate disclosure: some links on this page may earn GamingToday compensation at no additional cost to you. This doesn’t influence our editorial coverage or the accuracy of the information provided.
