For the 2024 season, Ty Gour doesn’t see an underdog — he sees an under-Duck. The Fanatics Sportsbook college football trader sets odds and watches trends, but his job has more mystery in 2024. No one really knows what to expect in a season of seismic shifts.
Conferences are larger than ever, and so are the playoffs.
Texas and Texas A&M are rivals again. Cal and Stanford play in the Atlantic Coast Conference. The Big Ten targeted USC and UCLA. Oregon and Washington were 11th-hour add-ons — but one of the reduced-rate members could produce the Big Ten’s best national championship threat.
Bettors aren’t backing Oregon to win the college football national championship. Gour puts the Big Ten Conference newcomer in the same tier as Georgia and Ohio State, though.
“By mid-October, you’re going to see them as a top-three team, at least,” he said. “They’re really good. (Oregon QB) Dillon Gabriel’s a Heisman favorite. That offense, in a Big Ten environment, will be a lot of fun to watch. I think you’re going to see them light it up.”
Oregon betting rules and the West Coast time zone could be factors. Fanatics Sportsbook is available in 22 states, but the Oregon Lottery works with a single online sports betting vendor. That keeps Oregonians from shopping for home-team odds on the Fanatics app — or signing up for a Fanatics Sportsbook promo offer.
For what it’s worth: The 2024 preseason AP poll is out. The voters agree with Gour:
- Georgia Bulldogs
- Ohio State Buckeyes
- Oregon Ducks
Yes, early-season football polls are about as relevant as tradition and conference loyalty in 2024.
Fanatics Sportsbook College Football Playoff Bets
College football still has its New Year’s Six bowls — Rose, Orange, Sugar, Cotton, Fiesta, and Peach. Starting this season, on-campus first-round games feed into the NY6 bowls as national quarterfinals and semifinals.
The new 12-team playoff bracket also extends the college football season. This year’s national championship game is Jan. 20 in Atlanta.
Gour plans accordingly.
“Simply put, the best team in the nation still needs to win three playoff games now versus two,” he said. “It’s going to be a huge difference. And it’s reflected in the futures (odds to win the national championship) in the sense that: You’re only seeing those ‘for sure, we know they’re going to be 11-1 or better’ teams with shorter odds.”
Georgia and Ohio State are leading the pack at Fanatics Sportsbook. Everybody else is at least 8-to-1.
“Only five teams are even shorter than 12-to-1. So, if you’re not a blue blood with a dynamite roster full of five stars … it’s going to be a tough road to the playoffs this year, for sure — and especially once you get to the playoffs. Nothing is guaranteed by any stretch.”
College Football Selection Committee on Aug. 15 announced that its first top 25 will be released on Tuesday, Nov. 5. Look for major odds shifts based on the committee’s rankings each week.
Then, new polls should be released each Tuesday through the end of the regular season. Selection Day is Sunday, Dec. 8, when the selection committee can plug the top contenders into the final bracket.
Bigger Conferences Stretch Fanatics Sportsbook College Football Odds
Remember that “LSU to win the SEC” bet you might have made a year ago? Well, the payout’s going to be better at Fanatics Sportsbook if it happens this year.
Gour says conference championship odds are “really a mixed bag, based on the conference and who’s going where.”
The sport is down to four major conferences. Gour assessed the newcomers and their impact in each league.
SEC
“For the SEC, two blue-blood teams are going there. Texas this year looks like they have a serious chance to win it all. And Oklahoma — they’re coming in ranked 18. They’re still going to be noisy.”
Their arrivals are affecting futures quite a bit, according to the sports trader.
“You’re really seeing Georgia-and-the-rest there, whereas if Texas wasn’t there, you’d be seeing teams like Alabama and maybe LSU being shorter (in odds to win the conference). And then Oklahoma is still, I believe, 30-to-1 right now. So even that’s affecting the market, for sure — especially for some of those middle-tier, expected-to-win-eight-or-nine-games, type of teams.”
Big Ten
At 2-to-1, Oregon may have the best odds of any new conference member in the nation.
“Looking at their schedule … I don’t really think they’re going to lose, honestly. They have a pretty easy schedule. They play Ohio State and Michigan. Those will be your two tests. After that, they’re going to roll everybody,” Gour said.
“And, really, that Ohio State-Oregon game’s going to set up as a preview for the championship game in December — unless a team like Michigan comes out of the woodwork again. But I just don’t see it with the exodus there.”
Gour is referring to the coaching change in Ann Arbor. Coach Jim Harbaugh left for the NFL, and the Wolverines program faces some potential sanctions for their recruiting and scouting adventures.
The Fanatics analyst also thinks USC is “going to be noisy,” with a season around the nine-win range.
“They’re sitting at 22-to-1 right now, so they’re kind of that middle of the pack,” he said. “And really, they have an easier schedule. If they beat Michigan, they’re right in the mix, honestly. And then UCLA and Washington, they’re not going to do anything there. They’d be lucky to finish .500.”
Big 12
The Big 12 welcomed Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah in a conference that gained more balance with the exodus of Texas and Oklahoma.
“Utah is the projected favorite right now,” Gour said. “We have them at 3-to-1. They have a deep roster; they were really good last year. Despite all their injuries, they still went 7-5 in the Pac-12, which is no small feat. So going to a weaker conference, with a better roster — they’re going to shape up pretty well.”
He also gives Arizona the “noisy team” label at Fanatics Sportsbook.
“We have them at 10-to-1 right now, and all you need to do is finish top two,” he said. “I don’t really see another team that’s better than Arizona on paper, so I could definitely see that.”
As for Colorado, Gour asks: “Everybody loves Prime, right?” Flashy Hall of Fame cornerback Deion Sanders begins his second year at the helm of the Buffalos.
“We take a ton of action on Colorado, because, one, we’re live in Colorado, and, two, it’s a fun narrative,” Gour said. “Everybody loves to talk about Colorado. But, the reality of the situation is they’re probably not going to be a contender come November. But in September, they’re going to be a noisy, noisy team for us, and then Arizona State? They’re going to be a non-factor.”
ACC
The ACC is the only conference where newcomers may not factor into the conference championship odds. The league welcomes Cal and SMU (they’re “probably going to finish around .500,” Gour says), plus Stanford.
Look for the Cardinal football team to be on the low end of season win-total bets at Fanatics.
“They’re really bad right now,” Gour said. “They’re going to receive the dividends for being in a better conference in the long term. But I’d be shocked if they won a game in conference play this year.”
SMU’s weaker ACC schedule may crack the door a bit for the Mustangs.
“They only play FSU out of the big three there — being FSU, Clemson, Miami,” Gour said. “If they upset FSU, they could possibly finish top two, but that’s a huge upset to get. And even then, I personally think Louisville is better, and the odds reflect that as well.”
The ‘Group of 5’ Fanatics Sportsbook College Football Odds
The 12-team College Football Playoff format gives automatic berths to the five highest-ranked conference champions. By design, that leaves room for the best “non-power” conference champion to earn a bid as well.
Gour doesn’t think the smaller conferences will take up spots beyond the auto-bid, however.
“The Big 10 and SEC are so stacked that unless a team is 2017 UCF Knights-level dominant and somehow loses their conference championship game to another team that is also on that level, I don’t see a path to the playoffs unless you win your conference.”
He cites three contenders for the coveted non-major auto-bid.
Liberty
“Their schedule is super, super weak. They could go 12-0. They have a very feasible path. I think the best team they’re going to play is East Carolina this year. So if they go 12-0 and nobody else from any other conference shines, they’ll make it. But it could be a lot like the … Fiesta Bowl last year where Oregon just took them behind the woodshed (45-6), and it was basically over by the second quarter.”
American Conference winner
“The American Conference is a conference to watch. It is competitive. I think there are three or four really good teams there, which also means that the conference champion they produce is probably going to be a 10-win team.
“… Memphis and USF — University of South Florida — are the two teams to watch there. I think they have the best chance. Memphis is at a 2-to-1 odds right now, and then South Florida is about 6-to-1. There’s a lot of noise coming out of South Florida that their offense is really dynamic this year, so we’ll see how that plays out.”
Boise State — but “Duck”
“It’s always fun to pick Boise State. They’re the runaway favorite to win the Mountain West. There’s not really much competition there — but there they do get the benefit of playing teams like Oregon State and Washington State. That will boost their non conference rating up.
“… The one game to watch for them, for sure, though, is when they play Oregon in Week 2. If they end up holding their own in that game, I think it’s going to be a really good sign. That’s going to shoot their odds right up.”
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