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To the perplexity of the oddsmaker, LSU represents the largest liability in the college football national championship futures market at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas.
“Which is shocking in that I have a number on all their games, and it’s shocking how many times that they’re double-digit underdogs this year,” Ed Salmons, vice president of risk management at the Westgate, said of the Tigers.
While LSU opens its season Sunday night as a field-goal favorite vs. Florida State at the Caesars Superdome, the Westgate is dealing 6.5 for the team’s win total, a number not exactly predictive of a national title.
That hasn’t stopped futures action from rolling in on Brian Kelly’s new program.
The Westgate wrote a $1,000 bet at LSU’s opening price of 200-to-1 odds, prompting an adjustment to 100-to-1. In came another bet for $3,000, after which Salmons and his team moved to 60-to-1.
“We stayed 60 until we put up win totals, games of the year, and all that,” Salmons recalls. “And I’m like 60-to-1? I know our liability, but this is just crazy. So I went back to 100, guy came in and bet $1,500 at 100. So, I’m like, ‘alright, back to 60.’”
And 60-to-1 is where you’ll find LSU at the Las Vegas bet shop two days before the Tigers kick off their season against the Seminoles. That price is short compared to the market (FanDuel offers 100-to-1), the liability, of course, driving down the price.
“I don’t know if it’s the same guy (making the bets), but it’s gotta be someone that bet them when they won (the 2019-20 National Championship),” Salmons said, “or he’s believer in Brian Kelly and the Arizona State kid who can’t throw.”
(As of this Friday writing, Kelly has not stated publicly whether ASU transfer Jayden Daniels or sophomore Garrett Nussmeier will start Sunday night).
Who Else are They Betting to Win CFB Championship?
In addition to LSU, USC (+2500) and Ohio State (+275) have drawn the most handle in the national championship futures market at the SuperBook.
Liability on the shortly-priced Buckeyes, though, isn’t a concern for the book. The bookmakers aren’t losing sleep over less realistic teams that do represent liability, either.
The second-most liability is on Michigan State.
“Good luck to them,” said Salmons.
Salmons also listed Ole Miss, Baylor, USC, Pittsburgh, and UCLA as losing propositions for the house.
“All teams that literally can’t win,” he quipped.
