Minnesota Moves to Ban Prediction Markets After Controversial Bets

Gaming Edge’s TL;DR

• Minnesota lawmakers have introduced a bill to ban prediction markets after more than $1.2 million was wagered on whether federal agents will be charged in Minneapolis shootings.
• This move signals growing state pushback against platforms that let users bet on politics, sports, and real-world events.

Minnesota legislators filed SF4511 on March 17, seeking to ban prediction markets such as Polymarket and similar platforms after a surge in activity.

Polymarket has taken more than $1.2 million in wagers on whether federal immigration enforcement agents who shot two US citizens will be charged this month. Other markets on the site have drawn millions on resignations and political outcomes.

The bill’s lead author, Sen. John Marty (DFL-Roseville), says the law targets platforms that function as betting outlets under the guise of financial contracts.

Lawmakers also introduced a separate bill to curb online sweepstakes-style gambling (HF4110/SF4474). Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket argue they operate as event-based financial markets, while state regulators and tribal governments have filed lawsuits accusing them of unlicensed sports gambling.

CFTC official warns of upcoming lawsuit

The bills and pending court fights could change access to prediction markets and the types of wagers permitted.

If Minnesota’s ban passes, residents could be prevented from placing bets on political, catastrophe, or sports-related event contracts listed in the bill.

Operators face a split legal landscape: Kalshi, valued at about $11 billion, markets itself across all 50 states, while crypto-based Polymarket has recently regained US traction. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is asserting federal regulatory authority and has signaled rulemaking.

CFTC chair Mike Selig warned challengers, saying, “we’ll see you in court.” That creates a possible patchwork where some states block platforms while federal oversight could protect them in other jurisdictions.

Based on reporting by Alyssa Chen for the Minnesota Reformer.