NBA Play-In Tournament Odds 2024: Warriors, Lakers Slight Underdogs

With two games remaining for all 30 NBA teams and the regular season set to conclude on Sunday, we’re two days away from the playoff field (and the play-in games) being decided. The final two nights of the 2023-24 NBA regular season are Friday, April 12, and Sunday, April 14, with all 30 teams in action on both of those nights.

In both the Eastern and Western Conferences, five teams have been eliminated from the playoffs. That leaves several scrapping to either avoid the play-in games or get the best situation possible for those matchups. In the West, the Warriors and Lakers are guaranteed to be in the play-in, but one of those teams could still theoretically move up to compete in the 7-vs.-8 matchup instead of the 9-vs.-10 battle.

In the East, the Chicago Bulls and the Atlanta Hawks are locked in to meet in the 9-vs.-10 battle in the East. Several Eastern Conference teams are still either fighting to avoid the play-in or at least get the 7-vs.-8 game at home.

Let’s break down the NBA Play-In Tournament odds with 80 of 82 games in the books for every team.

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NBA Play-In Tournament Odds

Below are the odds for each team to reach the playoffs (which would require surviving at least one play-in game to reach a seven-game first-round series). It’s a testament to the league’s competitive balance that 10 teams are still fighting for a chance to reach the play-in games — or avoid them by securing a spot in the first round.


Five teams — the Suns, Pelicans, Kings, 76ers, Pacers, and Heat — are heavily favored to reach at least a first-round series, while oddsmakers see the Warriors, Lakers, Bulls, and Hawks as underdogs to survive their play-in games.

Golden State Warriors Playoff Odds Analysis

Current odds:

Remaining opponents: Pelicans (home), Jazz (home)

The Warriors are solid value at the current price after winning eight of their last nine going into Thursday’s late game against Portland. If it comes down to Warriors vs. Lakers in the 9-10 matchup, Golden State has to like its chances after beating the Lakers 134-120 in LA earlier this week. It’s also hard to see the Warriors losing to LA given that the latter is coming off back-to-back losses at home.

Los Angeles Lakers Playoff Odds Analysis

Current odds:

Remaining opponents: at Memphis, at Pelicans

It’s hard to imagine LeBron James’ team failing to reach the postseason (beyond the play-in games), but it’s a distinct possiblity unless the Lakers can get play-in wins over the Warriors and either the Kings, Suns, or Pelicans (depending on which of those three plays in and wins the 7-vs.-8 matchup). It’s partly due to facing a Eastern Conference-heavy stretch in recent weeks, but it still doesn’t bode well for the Lakers that they have not beaten a playoff team in the West since they took down Minnesota on March 10.

Chicago Bulls Playoff Odds Analysis

Current odds:

Remaining opponents: at Washington, at New York

Chicago and Atlanta are set to square off in the 9-vs.-10 matchup in the East, and regardless of which team wins, it will be a clear underdog against whoever it meets in the second play-in game. Whether it’s Jimmy Butler and the Heat or Joel Embiid and the Sixers — those are the two most likely possibilities — Chicago would need a massive upset to reach the playoffs.

Atlanta Hawks Playoff Odds Analysis

Current odds:

Remaining opponents: at Minnesota, at Indiana

The biggest question is who will be favored in the battle of the 36-44 Hawks, who have lost four in a row entering the final two games of the regular season, and the 38-42 Bulls, losers of seven of their last 10 games. Let’s give the slight advantage to the Bulls, who will have homecourt advantage against Atlanta, but don’t expect Chicago to get by whoever it takes on next if it does eliminate Atlanta.


About the Author
Tyler Everett

Tyler Everett

Tyler Everett has been a sports writer since joining the student newspaper at his alma mater, NC State, back in 2008. He has covered sports, sports betting, and the business of sports for several newspapers and websites, including the Denver Broncos, Charlotte Observer, High Press Soccer, and Sports Business Journal.

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