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Initially installed as four-point favorites, Penn State now finds itself the underdog heading into Saturday’s Outback Bowl matchup (12 p.m. ET, ESPN2) against Arkansas, the first bowl game to kick off on New Year’s Day. With a series of opt-outs hitting the Nittany Lions on both sides of the ball, the Razorbacks are laying 1-1.5 points depending on the sportsbook.
Arkansas (8-4 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) will be without leading wide receiver Treylon Burks, who opted out after having 1,104 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. Burks’ 66 receptions more than tripled that of his closest teammate as Tyson Morris was second on the team with 21 receptions, good for 305 yards and two scores. Morris missed Monday’s practice due to an undisclosed illness, but coach Sam Pittman told the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette that he’s optimistic Morris will be cleared to join the team in Tampa.
Quarterback KJ Jefferson (2,578 yards, 21 TDs, 3 INTs) will be looking to spread the ball around without Burks and is also part of the team’s diverse ground attack, rushing for 554 yards and 5 TDs. Running backs Trelon Smith (592 yards, 5 TDs), Raheim Sanders (499, 3), and Dominique Johnson (499, 7) will also be looking to exploit Penn State’s revamped defensive front.
For Penn State, quarterback Sean Clifford will look to finish a frustrating season on a high note. Penn State was 5-0 and leading Iowa when Clifford was forced from the game with an injury, seemingly to his back or ribs, but no specifics were ever given.
Clifford didn’t appear fully healthy the rest of the season as the Lions went 2-5 to finish the year. Clifford completed 247 of 396 attempts for 2,912 yards to go with 20 TDs and 6 INTs on the season, playing well when fully healthy. His ability to run was greatly curtailed after the injury and it’s unknown if the time off before the bowl game has allowed him to fully heal.
Without Dotson, who had 91 receptions for 1,182 yards and 12 TDs, Clifford will look to receivers Parker Washington (57 catches, 722 yards, 4 TDs) and KeAndre Lambert-Smith (31, 477, 2), and tight ends Brenton Strange (19, 226, 3), and Theo Johnson (19, 213, 1). Penn State never really established the running game this season as Keyvone Lee (495 yards, 2 TDs) and Noah Cain (322, 4) led the way for a unit that averaged a paltry 106.3 yards per game rushing.
Outback Bowl Total And Trends For Penn State And Arkansas
Bettors jumped on the ‘over’ when it was initially offered at 46 points, believing these teams will put points on the board. Arkansas certainly has an easier task than it would have had if Penn State was fielding a full complement of starters and the Nittany Lions will also be without Brett Pry as the defensive coordinator left to become the head coach at Virginia Tech.
If Clifford is fully healthy, it might help provide a boost that will help cover for Dotson’s absence, but this would also be a good time for PSU to have more success running the ball.
All told, the ‘under’ was the winning play in nine of Penn State’s 12 games. The ‘under’ had hit in five straight games before the ‘over’ cashed in the regular-season finale. Unless someone steps up Saturday, it may be hard for the Lions to reach their season average of 26.3 points per game.
The Razorbacks averaged 31.5 points per game, but their passing game may be hindered without Burks. The question is if Arkansas just relies on the ground game to make up the slack. The ‘over’ hit seven times for the Razorbacks, but the ‘under’ was the winning play in three of their final five games.
