Somewhere in the United States, a sports bettor will be moments from frustration.
Ravens-Chiefs. The MVP quarterback will scramble just a few yards short of a first down, setting up an obvious dump to the All-Pro tight end jogging back to the huddle. The defense calls a timeout.
The bettor scoops their phone from between the couch cushions and thumbs to a prop bet. They need the over on that tight end’s receptions. Thumb cocks to place the bet. Then the betslip dims.
The wager has been suspended.
The bettor has been annoyed.
Barring a quantum improvement in the speed with which online sportsbooks adjust odds due to live circumstances such as scores or injuries during games, these so-called “suspensions” will continue to confound bettors during live games. And they will continue to cost US sportsbooks millions, according to an analysis by sports odds intelligence firm Bettormetrics. The company uses artificial intelligence to analyze the suspension rates from the 2023 NFL betting season.
There is money and goodwill at stake. The 2024 American Gaming Association’s legal betting estimate for the current NFL season, if accurate at $35 billion, would peg the potential suspension losses for sportsbooks at more than $220 million for four of the top five operators alone.
DraftKings CEO Jason Robins, speaking at the Bank of America’s Gaming and Lodging Conference, underscored the importance NFL betting for sportsbooks’ profitability.
“This is the equivalent for us like a holiday season,” Robins said of the commencement of the regular season. “It’s where we get a ton of new customers, we reactivate a lot of customers. It’s a great time for us to really get a sense of what the next year is going to look like. I almost wish we started our fiscal year at the beginning of NFL season but it’s definitely exciting.”
According to Bettormetrics:
- The top four sportsbooks by handle in the US potentially lost more than $160.7 million in revenue “due to extended suspension times and poor pricing strategies” in the 2023 NFL season.
- On average, BetMGM and bet365 were suspended and unable to take in-game bets “5-10% more each game than the market leaders.”
- DraftKings averaged 96.1% “uptime” last season, best among the top operators.
“DraftKings is clearly the team to beat when it comes to NFL betting,” Bettormetrics’ co-founder and CEO Robert Urwin said. “With the most amount of uptime during NFL games and least amount of time suspended in isolation compared to the other bookmakers, DraftKings has a grip on the most critical betting season in the US. FanDuel is close behind and could make up the distance with a few tweaks in their suspension and trading strategies.”
- bet365 averaged only 85.5% uptime, which could potentially equate to losses of $4.6 million. The sportsbook had not responded to a request for comment at time of publishing.
The study estimated that FanDuel had lost more than $107 million alone in 2023 — by far the most of the top tier — but not crippling for a company that amassed $3.6 billion in gross gaming revenue in just 15 reporting states, according to data compiled by Catena Media.
The suspension losses would be more impactful to BetMGM and bet365. Available data put BetMGM‘s GGR at $649 million in 14 reporting states last year, with $11.7 million in NFL suspension losses, according to Bettormetrics.
The report said bet365 had a reported $76.9 million in revenue in four states and $4.6 million in suspension losses.
Bettormetrics
DraftKings Addresses NFL Suspension Rate?
DraftKings could build on its advantage after acquiring micro-betting specialist Simplebet recently. In a release confirming the sale, DraftKings said the deal would “allow for the integration of Simplebet’s proprietary machine-learning models into DraftKings’ best-in-class pricing and technology platform to create highly accurate betting opportunities during every moment of a game.”
In essence, in-game wagering, and that Ravens-Chiefs prop bet going through.
“Live betting represents an area for potential growth for online sports betting, and the proposed acquisition would allow DraftKings to leverage Simplebet’s proprietary technology to create an in-play wagering experience that moves at the speed of sports,” DraftKings chief product officer Corey Gottlieb said. “And while we continue to elevate our product offering in this space, we are also committed to building technology that supports our robust consumer protection standards.”
Robins said at the conference that “a big area of focus for us is driving live betting.”
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