World Cup Odds: France the Favorite Going Into Semifinals

The quarterfinal round of the 2022 FIFA World Cup was not kind to tournament favorites Brazil and England.

On Friday, Brazil were eliminated in a stunning loss to Croatia, and on Saturday, England were knocked out by now-tournament favorite France. Argentina also flirted with disaster on Friday against the Netherlands, squandering a late 2-0 lead before prevailing in PKs.

With heavy favorite Brazil and England — who had the fourth-shortest futures odds to win the World Cup — out of the mix, France are now the clear favorites. Les Bleus are +110 on BetMGM, followed by Argentina (+165), Croatia (+700), and Morocco (+900).

Below are the “to advance” prices on FanDuel for the semifinals.

• Argentina (-280) vs. Croatia (+220) Tuesday, 2 p.m. Eastern
• France (-460) vs. Morocco (+330) Wednesday, 2 p.m. Eastern

Let’s take a look at the latest World Cup odds for the four remaining teams, with picks for this year’s tournament.

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2022 FIFA World Cup Odds

**Odds as of today.

World Cup Betting Favorites

France (+110 at BetMGM)

France proved a couple things to any doubters they still had prior to their quarterfinal showdown with England. Most importantly, by beating a loaded Three Lions squad, France showed their early-tournament success was not just about facing underwhelming opponents Australia, Denmark, Tunisia, and Poland.

France show their depth

France also showed they could generate offense if they ever faced an opponent that managed to contain Kylian Mbappe. England not only prevented Mbappe from scoring, but prevented him from having any involvement in the French attack. Mbappe — who had 21 shots (10 on target) in France’s first four games — was limited to just one shot (which was not on target) on Saturday. The French star — who has scored five goals and remains the heavy favorite to win the Golden Boot at -210 on FanDuel — also had just 36 touches against England, after he had 75 against Australia, 52 against Denmark, and 58 against Poland (and 30 in just 28 minutes against Tunisia.

While midfielder Aurelien Tchouameni and Olivier Giroud provided the highlights with their goals, France’s MVP was arguably Antoine Griezmann, who got the assist on both. With three assists on his team’s 11 goals in Qatar, Griezmann has been an unsung hero, even as Mbappe and Giroud (four total goals) have enjoyed more acclaim.

Survive and advance

Last but not least, the French survived same major adversity. In addition to giving up an equalizer on a penalty in the 54th minute, France also sent Harry Kane to the spot with a penalty in the 84th, but Kane’s attempt missed the net. Whether you call it luck, which was certainly a factor, or resilience, France survived a difficult test despite giving their opponent eight shots on target and two penalty kicks. No matter what the advanced metrics say about how unlikely Saturday’s quarterfinal win over England was — and France losing the xG battle 0.9 to 2.4 indicates they were certainly lucky — France moved on, which is all that matters.

While the errors that led to those PKs were red flags, it’s also possible that France may have just survived their toughest battle of the World Cup. They’re a massive favorite against Morocco on Wednesday, and they would also be heavily favored in the final if they face Croatia.

Argentina (+165 at BetMGM)

The question throughout the World Cup for Argentina has been whether Lionel Messi’s teammates could come through. For most of the quarterfinal match against a tough Netherlands side, they were outstanding. Argentina led 2-0 with just 10 minutes remaining, and appeared set to ease into their semifinal matchup against Croatia.

Supporting cast steps up

The 2-0 lead came thanks in large part to Messi (of course), who had a goal and an assist. But he also had help.

Argentina scored first in the 35th minute on a play Messi created with a sensational assist, but right back Nahuel Molina still had to beat the Dutch keeper, and he stayed composed to do just that. The play that sent Messi to the spot for the PK that made it 2-0 in the 73rd came after left back Marcos Acuña got into position to draw an obvious foul.

While Julian Alvarez, Alexis Mac Allister and Enzo Fernandez had helped shoulder the offensive load going into the quarterfinals, Argentina defeated Netherlands thanks to two huge plays in the final third by players whom few expected to put the Argentines on the board.

Defensive issues come to light

Defensively, however, Argentina showed major cracks in their attempt to close out the match. The goal they allowed to towering Dutch striker Wout Weghorst that made it 2-1 in the 83rd came after no Argentine put any pressure on Steven Berghuis as he provided the long, lofted cross. Berghuis’ service found and unmarked Weghorst at the front post, just outside the six-yard box. Berghuis and Weghorst both made outstanding plays, but the Argentine defense did not do nearly enough to make it difficult.

Argentina also broke down at the worst time on the equalizer by the Dutch late in stoppage time. That breakdown, which could have easily cost them their spot in the semis, came on a set piece that the Dutch executed to perfection. The close-range free kick was awarded after a reckless challenge by Leandro Paredes.

Poise under pressure

Despite those gaffes, Argentina were the better side in the added time prior to PKs. And their poise on the decisive penalties — Messi, Paredes, Gonzalo Montiel, and Lautaro Martinez all came through under a ton of pressure — was impressive.

Argentine keeper Emiliano Martinez, who denied the Dutch on their first two PKs, also stepped up in a huge way for the second time in a year after stonewalling Colombia three times in PKs in the semifinals of last year’s Copa America.

Argentina ultimately winning in the fashion they did showed that this team — which won last year’s Copa America after beating Colombia on PKs in the semifinals and defeating host Brazil 1-0 in the final — might have the composure and depth that previous Argentina sides lacked.

Croatia (+700 at BetMGM)

Is the semifinal matchup with Argentina the time when Croatia’s luck finally runs out? Croatia have won back-to-back shootouts to make it this far. After beating Japan in the Round of 16, Croatia kept heavily favored Brazil scoreless in the quarterfinal until added time, when a beautiful goal by Neymar looked like it would end Croatia’s run.

But Croatia managed to equalize in the 117th minute, on a shot by Bruno Petkovic that deflected into the net. They then won 4-2 on PKs, as they were a perfect 4-for-4 while Rodrygo and Marquinhos for Brazil both came up short.

Luka Modric and Croatia were not given a chance by oddsmakers against Brazil, and they’re a long shot against Argentina on Tuesday, but at this point, betting against them feels like a bad idea.

Morocco (+900 at BetMGM)

Morocco have pulled off two big upsets of their own to reach the semis, but there was nothing fluky about either their Round of 16 win over Spain — even though it was decided by PKs — or their quarterfinal result against Portugal.

While Morocco lost the possession battle 73-27 to Portugal, they generated the same number of shots on target (3) as their opponent, and they had a 1.4 to 0.0 edge in xG.

Against Spain, Morocco had proven how tough they were to break down when the scoreboard read 0-0. One round later, Morocco scored first on an impressive leaping header by Youssef En-Nesyri, then kept Portugal at bay until the final minutes.

The case for Morocco at +900

If there’s value in either of the underdogs, it’s with Morocco. While they lack Croatia’s invaluable experience in massive World Cup matches and are a bigger underdog against France than Croatia are against Argentina, Morocco have a formula that has been extremely effective throughout the tournament.

Croatia, on the other hand, have hung around due in large part to some fortunate bounces and impressive mental fortitude.

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Best World Cup Betting Apps: Where To Bet On Soccer

The best options for betting on the World Cup are BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars, and PointsBet. They all offer competitive odds and top-performing sports betting apps. 

How To Bet on World Cup Odds

In addition to spreads, moneylines, totals, and futures bets, there are other fun ways to join the soccer wagering action for this year’s World Cup.  

Parlay Bets

Parlays feature multiple bets (or legs) in a single wager that can increase your amount of winnings. Parlay odds increase with each leg you add to the wager. A $100 bet on a successful three-team parlay pays $600, and a winning four-team parlay returns $1,100. Take advantage of Gaming Today’s free parlay calculator. It will show you the implied probability of winning your parlay, odds, and the potential payout. 

Prop Bets

Prop bets are also plentiful when it comes to World Cup betting. Prop bets are not directly tied to the outcome of a game or tournament. There are individual prop bets on players to score a goal, for example. There are team prop bets on the number of yellow cards or corner kicks a team will have in a match.  

You can also bet on the winner of the Golden Ball (MVP) and Golden Boot (Leading Scorer) at the end of the World Cup.

Bet Tracking

The practice of tabulating your betting history. Advanced bet Tracking for sports betting is essential because numbers are king. Properly Monitoring and tracking your bets makes you gambling royalty. Sports gamblers, novices, and veterans alike are guaranteed to improve their game with this simple hack.

Groups at the Qatar 2022 FIFA World Cup

Group A

• Qatar
• Ecuador
• Senegal 
• Netherlands 

Group B

• England
• Iran
• USA
• Wales 

Group C

• Argentina
• Saudi Arabia
• Mexico
• Poland 

Group D

• France
• Australia
• Denmark
• Tunisia 

Group E

• Spain
• Costa Rica
• Germany
• Japan 

Group F

• Belgium
• Canada
• Morocco
• Croatia 

Group G

• Brazil
• Serbia
• Switzerland
• Cameroon 

Group H

• Portugal
• Ghana
• Uruguay
• South Korea

FIFA World Cup Winners History

This year marks the 22nd edition of the FIFA World Cup. The winners of the previous 21 World Cups* – from Uruguay in 1930 through France in 2018 – are listed below.

World Cup Winners Timeline

Brazil leads all countries with five World Cup wins. Below are the eight teams that have won a World Cup, and how many times they’ve each won it.

Total World Cup Wins By Country

World Cup Odds FAQ