Norway vs England Prediction, Odds & Picks: Haaland vs Kane, World Cup Quarter-Final, July 11, 2026

Norway vs England is the heavyweight tie of the 2026 World Cup quarter-finals: Saturday, July 11 at 5:00 PM ET from Miami Stadium, with a semi-final place on the line and the two most lethal No. 9s in world football facing off. Erling Haaland — seven goals, tied for the Golden Boot lead with Messi and Mbappé — just knocked out Brazil with a brace. Harry Kane converted the decisive penalty as 10-man England survived an all-time classic against Mexico at the Azteca. Here is our complete Norway vs England prediction, the quarter-final odds, and the best bets for Saturday’s showdown.

Track every remaining team’s price on our live World Cup odds hub, updated after every round.

 

Norway vs England — Match Info

Detail	Info
Round	Quarter-Final
Date	Saturday, July 11, 2026
Kickoff	5:00 PM ET / 2:00 PM PT
Venue	Miami Stadium (Hard Rock), Miami Gardens, FL
TV	FOX / FOX One
H2H	England lead 7-3-2 in 12 meetings; last met 2014 (England 1-0)
Conditions	Miami mid-July — ~30°C / 86°F+, high humidity

 

Norway vs England Odds

Market	bet365	FanDuel	BetMGM	DraftKings
England Win (90 min)	-110	-105	-110	-108
Draw	+260	+270	+260	+265
Norway Win (90 min)	+250	+260	+270	+260
England to Advance	-200	-195	-200	-198
Norway to Advance	+165	+168	+165	+165
Over 2.5 Goals	-110	-112	-115	-112
Under 2.5 Goals	-112	-110	-110	-110
Haaland Anytime Scorer	+105	+110	+105	+108
Kane Anytime Scorer	+135	+140	+135	+138

Odds correct as of July 7, 2026. Verify current lines before betting.

Norway Team Analysis: The Brazil Slayers

Norway’s 2-1 win over Brazil was the defining upset of the knockout rounds — and it was earned, not stolen. After 79 minutes of missed chances and heroics from keeper Örjan Nyland (including a penalty save from Bruno Guimarães in the 14th minute and what many are calling the save of the tournament), Haaland broke the deadlock with a header and added a second in the 90th before Neymar’s stoppage-time penalty made the scoreline respectable. It sent Norway to their first-ever World Cup quarter-final and vaulted them from +1400 to the +1800 sixth choice in the outright market.

The engine of this team is the Haaland–Ødegaard axis, and it has been devastating: their link-up play has driven a tournament that includes a 4-1 win over Iraq, a 3-2 win over Senegal, a 2-1 knockout of Ivory Coast, and now Brazil. Norway’s philosophy under Ståle Solbakken is unambiguous — attack, at pace, regardless of opponent. The 4-1 group-stage loss to France came with most key players rested and should be discounted.

The defensive side is the revelation: against Brazil, Norway conceded only one meaningful open-play chance (Endrick’s missed 0.7 xG opportunity). Against a competent attack, they proved they can defend as a structured unit — not just outscore problems.

Norway Predicted Starting XI (4-3-3)

Nyland (GK) — Ryerson, Ajer, Heggem, Möller Wolfe — Ødegaard, Berge, Aursnes — Sørloth, Haaland, Nusa

England Team Analysis: Survivors of the Azteca

England’s 3-2 win over Mexico was an instant World Cup classic. Jude Bellingham scored twice in the first half, England went down to 10 men when Jarell Quansah was sent off early in the second, Kane converted a 60th-minute penalty to make it 3-1, Mexico pulled one back from the spot, and the Three Lions survived 11 minutes of stoppage time to end Mexico’s 26-game unbeaten run at the Azteca. It was England’s third straight World Cup quarter-final — their best such run since 1962-1970.

The concerns are physical and structural. England went from high-altitude Mexico City to hot-and-humid Miami on short rest, having played virtually an entire half a man down. Quansah’s red card leaves Thomas Tuchel with minimal right-back options — the fitness of Reece James for Saturday’s starting XI is the single most important team-news item of the quarter-finals. England’s attack has been high-volatility all tournament: four goals against Croatia, a goalless draw with Ghana, then the Mexico thriller.

What England do have is knockout pedigree, the tournament’s best midfield screen in Declan Rice, and Kane — who has converted every big penalty moment of his international career. England moved to +500 in the outright market after the Mexico win, third behind France and Spain.

England Predicted Starting XI (4-2-3-1)

Pickford (GK) — James (fitness permitting), Konsa, Stones, O’Reilly — Rice, Anderson — Saka, Bellingham, Gordon — Kane (c)

Monitor Reece James’s status — with Quansah suspended, England’s right-back depth is the key team-news question.

Key Betting Angles

Under 2.5 Goals at -110: The BetMGM Headline Call

BetMGM’s lead analyst makes the Under the headline pick, and the logic is compelling from both directions. England face a brutal physical spot — Mexico City altitude to Miami humidity, off a 10-man second half — and their attack is volatile rather than reliable. Norway, meanwhile, proved against Brazil that they can defend: one meaningful open-play chance conceded across 90 minutes. Rice and Anderson screening England’s back line will limit the Ødegaard–Haaland supply. Two elite defensive structures, heavy legs, 86-degree heat, and a semi-final on the line: the Under at -110 is the play.

Haaland Anytime Scorer at +105

Plus-money on Haaland to score is rare and probably fleeting. Seven goals in five matches, a brace against Brazil’s defense, and the “Haaland is inevitable” pattern that SportsLine’s analysts flagged before the Brazil game held perfectly. England represent his toughest test — but at +105, the price already concedes that and still pays above even money on the most reliable scorer in world football.

England to Advance at -200: The Position, Not the Price

England are the better squad on aggregate depth and have won the last five meetings against Norway across all eras (7-3-2 overall in 12). But -200 to advance is thin value for a game this evenly matched in current form. If you want England exposure, the 90-minute moneyline at -105/-110 is the better-priced expression — or wait for live betting if Norway start fast.

Norway vs England Best Bets

Pick	Odds	Book	Confidence
Under 2.5 Goals – Top Pick	-110	BetMGM / FanDuel	High
Haaland Anytime Scorer	+105	bet365 / BetMGM	Medium-High
England Win (90 min)	-105	FanDuel	Medium
Norway to Advance (upset play)	+165	bet365	Medium

Score Prediction: England 1-0 Norway (with extra-time risk)

A tense, tactical, low-scoring quarter-final decided by fine margins. England’s midfield control through Rice limits Norway’s transition game, Kane converts the game’s decisive moment — from the spot or a set piece — and the Three Lions edge into the semi-finals. But the margin is razor-thin: this game reaching extra time is a genuine scenario, and Haaland needs only one chance. Primary bet: Under 2.5 goals at -110. Value add: Haaland anytime at +105. Score prediction: England 1-0 Norway.

Where to Bet Norway vs England

Compare every book’s welcome offer and the full outright board on our best World Cup betting sites hub. The top three for this quarter-final:

#	Betting Site	Welcome Offer	Code
1	bet365	Bet $10, Get $365 in Bonus Bets	No code
2	BetMGM	Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if Your First Bet Doesn’t Win	TODAY
3	FanDuel	Bet $5, Get $350 in Bonus Bets	No code

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