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The prediction market wave keeps building, and this time, one of the biggest names in gaming might be getting ready to ride it.
Analysts believe that Flutter Entertainment, the parent company of FanDuel, is preparing to launch sports prediction markets before the end of 2025 — even as state regulators are raising their eyebrows at the idea.
Flutter’s move could mark the first major crossover between traditional sports betting operators and the emerging world of prediction exchanges.
But it’s also coming at a time when regulators in places like Nevada and Michigan are making it clear they view prediction markets as gambling, no matter how they’re framed.
Let’s break down what’s happening — and what it could mean for FanDuel, BetMGM, and the next phase of US betting innovation.
A Big Move from Flutter and FanDuel
According to analysts from Truist and Stifel who recapped discussions from the recent Global Gaming Expo in Las Vegas, Flutter could launch sports prediction contracts with CME Group before year-end. The two companies signed a deal in August aimed at “expanding access to financial markets for millions of FanDuel customers.”
At the time, the announcement was vague. It mentioned new “prediction products” but didn’t specify whether those would include sports. Now, based on recent analyst reports, Flutter appears ready to go further than anyone initially expected.
Barry Jonas of Truist said Flutter “has factored potential repercussions” into its plan and still believes the launch could happen by December. That’s a strong sign the company is confident it can operate within federal guidelines while pushing into new territory.
Flutter CEO Peter Jackson reportedly told investors the predictions initiative would be either a “net good or net great” for the company. Those words carry weight coming from Jackson, who is known for being measured rather than overly optimistic in public comments.
Why Flutter Thinks It Can Pull It Off
Prediction markets aren’t exactly foreign to Flutter. The company owns Betfair Exchange, one of the largest betting exchanges in the world, so it already understands how to manage peer-to-peer market dynamics.
The partnership with CME Group gives Flutter an added layer of credibility and infrastructure. CME is one of the most heavily regulated financial exchanges in the world, meaning Flutter’s plan could be structured more like a financial product than a gambling offering — at least in theory.
Still, the line between “prediction” and “betting” gets blurry fast. Regulators in multiple states have made it clear they see no difference between wagering on the price of gold and wagering on who wins the Super Bowl. For now, Flutter seems prepared to launch only in select markets where the legal risk is minimal.
One analyst noted that Flutter initially viewed the CME deal as a “novelty market” play to attract customers but now sees a “path to offering sports prediction markets in some states shortly after launch.”
The Regulatory Wall Comes Into Focus
While Flutter is gearing up, regulators are busy tightening the screws. The Nevada Gaming Control Board (NGCB) became the fourth state to issue a formal warning to licensed operators about prediction markets, joining Arizona, Michigan, and Ohio.
In a memo signed by NGCB Chairman Mike Dreitzer, the board reminded licensees that offering event contracts — even through federally regulated exchanges — still counts as sports wagering under Nevada law.
“The Board considers offering sports event contracts, or certain other event contracts, as constituting wagering activity,” the notice said.
It specifically called out markets tied to sports, esports betting, elections, and even pop culture events like the Oscars or the World Series of Poker.
Nevada regulators went a step further than some other states by warning that even partnering with an entity offering prediction markets elsewhere could jeopardize a company’s license.
That statement caught the attention of every major sportsbook with a Nevada footprint, from Caesars to MGM Resorts.
Dreitzer made it clear that any operator involved in prediction markets — whether directly or indirectly — could have its “character and integrity” questioned under the Gaming Control Act.
BetMGM Isn’t Taking Chances
Few companies took that warning more seriously than BetMGM. During the company’s Q3 earnings call, CEO Adam Greenblatt left no room for interpretation.
“Our position is clear and aligned with almost 40 state attorneys general, our regulators, and our tribal partners,” Greenblatt said. “As the law stands today, sports prediction markets are, in essence, illegal sports betting.”
He went on to criticize prediction platforms for not meeting the same standards as licensed sportsbooks, pointing to the lack of responsible gaming measures, compliance obligations, and tax payments.
BetMGM isn’t just talking tough — it’s also acting cautiously. Greenblatt said the company won’t touch predictions “until the legal position is clarified” and regulators change their stance.
Industry Divided Over the Next Step
The divide between Flutter and BetMGM reflects the industry’s uncertainty about where prediction markets fit into the broader landscape. Some companies, like Underdog, are already testing the waters.
The daily fantasy operator partnered with Crypto.com to offer sports prediction markets in states without legal betting, effectively sidestepping state regulators for now.
Others are simply watching. Caesars and Penn Entertainment have said they’re monitoring the situation closely but won’t make any moves until federal and state laws align more clearly.
For FanDuel, the timing might make sense despite the risk. The company already dominates US sports betting and fantasy sports. A successful predictions rollout could open up a new customer base — one that enjoys making market-style decisions without necessarily seeing themselves as “bettors.”
Flutter’s management believes these products could sit somewhere between finance and sports wagering, tapping into a different demographic while avoiding some of the marketing saturation seen in traditional betting.
The Road Ahead for Sports Predictions
If Flutter really does launch sports predictions by the end of the year, it would mark a significant milestone for the industry — and possibly set off a new wave of innovation and legal debate.
The company appears confident it can thread the needle between gaming and finance, but regulators like those in Nevada aren’t convinced.
Whether prediction markets evolve into a mainstream complement to sports betting or remain a gray-market niche will depend on how these next few months play out.
