In an email sent to customers on Tuesday, the Kalshi betting exchange laid out a new series of restrictions on the political wagering markets it was recently cleared to offer.
The Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit ruled last week that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s arguments against offering these types of markets did not rise to the standard needed to block them.
Since that decision, the betting exchange has posted 32 markets on presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial races and said it has “many more on the way.”
Rules May Quell Anxiety Over Kalshi’s New Political Betting Markets
Many opposed to allowing regulated wagering on political outcomes cite the potential further erosion of public trust in the system. While it seems inconceivable that political races would be vulnerable to the same type of tanking scandals by candidates as athletes in sports, a perception of malfeasance by election workers was possible.
Kalshi claims that the CFTC did not mandate the new guardrails, which it said were put in place to prevent any possible “manipulation” of its political markets.
Kalshi summarized its update with this line:
“Spoiler alert: if you’re running for office or counting the votes, you’re sitting this one out.”
It remains unclear how Kalshi could police election workers’ participation, particularly those in rank-and-file positions that work the polls on Election Day.
Who is Barred From Political Wagers on Kalshi?
Kalshi’s new rules apply to the following individuals:
- Candidates
- Campaign workers
- “Other key players “like people who count the votes and even polling organization employees,” according to Kalshi.
Additionally, each market has a slightly differently restricted list. Those can be checked here.
The presidential election odds market, for example, excludes those involved with political action committees or “major” polling organizations.
“Think of this as a similar effort to keep everything fair — ensuring no one trading in the market has an unfair advantage, and no one involved in an election has a financial interest in the outcome (at least when it comes to our markets),” said Kalshi in the update.
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