Gaming Today Panel Debates Kentucky Derby Favorite Forte, Seeks Value in Betting Pool

Johnny Avello, Andrew Champagne, and Alicia Hughes collectively comprise a lot of years and bet slips, trying to figure out which horse is going to finish first. Or second or third, if the price is right.

Ahead of the 149th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on Saturday, we pulled together the director of race and sportsbook at DraftKings and two Catena Media turf writers to hash out whether any colt has anything for favorites Forte and Tapit Trice. The good news no matter what the outcome is that residents of the Bluegrass State will be able to bet the Kentucky Derby from anywhere in 2024 as Kentucky sports betting has been legalized this year.

Run for the Roses: 2023 Kentucky Derby field

Did Kentucky Derby Draw Change Your Mind on Any of These 3-Year-Olds?

Hit Show or !@#$ Show debate right out of the gate

ALICIA HUGHES: I think that the main contenders drew pretty well. I don’t see any major problems for them. Forte landing, obviously in the 15 post, Angel of Empire right next to him, Tapit Trice, No. 5.

So I think if you’re looking at your main contenders, they kind of avoided a disaster there, although it’s not as bad as it used to be now that they have the new 20-horse gate. The one-hole is no longer kind of a death sentence, so to speak.

Still if you’re a fan of Hit Show, you’re not loving him coming out of that post. But I think all of the main horses will not have their post positions as an excuse.

ANDREW CHAMPAGNE: The biggest sound I think we all heard from the Kentucky Derby post position draw was several sighs of relief from [trainer] Todd Pletcher’s table. Forte was the very first name announced. He drew post 15. Absolutely no problem there.

There have been several times in the past couple of years where he’s had horses with live chances, and he has gotten stuck on the rail.

JOHNNY AVELLO: For me, I don’t think the one’s very good for Hit Show at all, because Hit Show’s not the kind of horse that leaves the gate quickly and tries to get position first or second. Hit Show likes to drop back a little bit. So Hit Show’s going to drop back now and be squeezed along on the rail and have to make this move.

So, not good for Hit Show, not good for [No. 2] Verifying, and not good for Continuar, who [is] on the 20 outside. That’s a long way to run.

Morning-Line Kentucky Derby Favorites

Is Forte Fairly Priced at 3-to-1 odds? How about Tapit Trice at 5-to-1?

AH: I think those are fair odds for both of them. You’re not going to see some crazy overwhelming pick in this year’s field. Forte has been a standout. He’s the juvenile champion. There’s really not a whole lot to knock with him. But given the depth of the field and the fact there’s no American Pharaoh in this year’s group, I think that those odds are pretty fair and where we would expect them to be.

AS: The one thing to watch out for is the wild, wacky outlier known as Mattress Mack, who is apparently planning on some sort of Kentucky Derby wager through the parimutuel pools. If it is on the favorite, safe to assume that that’s Forte, in that case, maybe 3-to-1 is what you get. Maybe you wind up having to settle for 5-to-2, which in a 20-horse field, it’s not prohibitive, but it’s pretty short.

JA: Forte 3-to-1 would be a fair price if he goes off at that. And he may go off at that, because there’s going to be a lot of other horses that are played here. These horses that are 50-to-1 — Reincarnate, Sun Thunder, and Continuar – that probably won’t go off 50-to-1.

If you’ve watched Derby prices in the past, there’s going to be some horses that should be 40-to-1, 50-to-1 that are going to be 18-to-1, 20-to-1, and there’s going to be some horses that should be 12-to-1, 15-to-1 that are going to be 25-to-1, 35-to-1.

So there’s certainly going to be some change from this morning line. And this morning line really doesn’t add up to 15% [hold for the track] anyway. So, some of these odds will certainly be different.

Now, going back to Forte, the future books in Las Vegas at a couple different locations, one location had him as low as 9-to-5, and nobody had him higher than +270, so if you took those prices, you got the worst of it. You may have got the worst of it. We’ll see by the time the race goes off.

Value Bets for 149th Kentucky Derby

Overlays to be found in Run for Roses Wagering Pool

JA: First of all, when you bet the Derby, win-place-and-show bets, you usually get the best value you could get, certainly on place and show, than any other time you could bet them all year long. A 3-to-1 horse normally pays $3.60 to place. A 3-to-1 horse could pay $5 or upper $4s in the Derby. And for show, you should get $2.60, $2.80, sometimes you get four bucks or more.

So it’s the best betting race because of the money that’s in the pool. There’ll be a lot out there that are betting [superfectas| and [trifectas] and looking for horses like Two Phil’s and Kingsbarns and Skinner and Practical Move and Jace’s Road — those horses — betting those horses to come in second or third to try to extend that payoff to the maximum price number they can get. And if you go back and look at some of the tris and supers over the past three years, just those three, last three, they’ve been paying really, really well.

AC: There’s also something to keep in mind with regard to horse racing, specifically in Kentucky: penny breakage. It might not seem like a lot, but all of a sudden, if you’re seeing 9-to-5 and you see a will-pay that used to say $5.60 or would be $5.60 in other states, sometimes that’s $5.84 or $5.92, and that doesn’t seem like a lot, but when you’re hitting that wager ‘X’ amount of times, it adds up.

And it’s one of those things that I’m fascinated to see anytime there’s a big race in Kentucky with those big pools and money going every which way possible.

John, you have it exactly right. That’s where you find those overlays and that little extra pinch of value that you’re not going to find in races that have six, eight, even 10 betting interests. The Derby’s its own beast.

AH: If you’re looking for a horse who could kind of jump up in there, and again, I’m not saying he’s good enough to actually win, but I think a horse who just physically has looked very good in the morning, and he’s a spitting image of his sire, Gun Runner, who was Horse of the Year, it’s Disarm for Steve Asmussen.

Steve said he’s basically been playing catch-up with this horse on the Derby Trail all season. He was second in the Louisiana Derby. He needed to run in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland to get the points. He finished third, got enough points to kind of get in there. I like the way that he worked and the energy that he has shown coming out of the Lexington Stakes.

I feel like he looks like a horse that still has something left in this tank. Steve Asmussen, this is the one race that he has not won in a career [where he has] pretty much won everything. Judging by the energy he has shown, I think he’s one who I wouldn’t be surprised if he kind of gets himself up in there for the exotics.

Kentucky Derby Panel Continues on YouTube Podcast

Check out the entirety of Gaming Today’s Kentucky Derby preview in the video podcast available on YouTube. In this expanded edition, topics include:

• How Japanese colts could quake this Derby and the American equine industry
• Advice for once-a-year horse players
• The one and only time Johnny would advise a 2-4-6-8-10 box.
• How bias affects handicapping
• Mint julep: Pass me one, or I’ll pass?