The MLB World Tour has kicked off the 2024 season with games in Seoul, South Korea. The Dodgers and Padres were on the field for those contests, and both teams have hopes for a pennant. Oddsmakers have MLB win totals available for all 30 teams now from the top MLB sportsbooks.
In our MLB betting guide series, we’ll examine win totals, playoff odds, World Series odds, and more markets for baseball betting.
More: Best MLB Betting Apps | Best MLB Betting Promotions & Offers
Win Trends in Major League Baseball
It’s never been a better time to win many games in an MLB season.
From 2021-2023, there have been 10 100-win seasons, which is by far the most for any three-year period in MLB history. In 2023, three teams (Braves, Orioles, Dodgers) reached 100 wins. The previous record for three years was six seasons of 100-win teams.
That’s why we like at least three teams to reach 100 games again. DraftKings Sportsbook is offering this market: Most Regular Season Wins by Any Team. Odds are +115 for Over 106.5, and -135 for Under 106.5 wins.
A $100 winning bet on any MLB team winning 107 games or more would result in a $115 payoff. The team most likely to make that number are the Dodgers in our estimation. The NL West will be better than it was in 2023, however.
Highest Wins Totals Odds
A sportsbook crafts its O/U odds as close as it can to even money with wriggle room for it to make money. That’s why win totals markets will typically be set at +100 (a pick ’em bet) or in the -110 or -120 range.
MLB Teams Most Likely to Exceed Win Totals in 2024
San Diego Padres: OVER 83.5 Wins
If Fernando Tatis Jr. is going to be a superstar, he ought to start doing so now, and we think he will. Watch center fielder Jackson Merrill, as he projects to be a high-average hitter with developing power. He can be a 20/20 HR/@B guy as a 20-year-old rookie. Think Don Mattingly with speed.
Minnesota Twins: OVER 86.5 Wins
The AL Central is bad, and the Twins are better than their 2023 season showed. Minnesota could win 95 games.
San Francisco Giants: OVER 83.5 Wins
The G-Men won 107 games in 2021. They added Blake Snell to a rotation that has Logan Webb and lefty Kyle Harrison, who will break out in ’24, just watch. They also added Matt Chapman to the middle of the lineup, and look out: Kung Foo Panda (Pablo Sandoval) has signed a minor league deal.
Boston Red Sox: OVER 77.5 Wins
The most overreactive fans in baseball are those of the Red Sox. Unless Boston wins 100 games and goes 19-0 against the Yankees every season, BoSox rooters are in therapy with the baseball blues. Alex Cora’s team will score oodles of runs and win enough to leapfrog the Yankees and possibly the Jays in the AL East.
MLB Teams Most Likely to Underperform Win Totals
Detroit Tigers: UNDER 80.5 Wins
See below for why Detroit will never sniff 81 wins.
Miami Marlins: UNDER 78.5 Wins
Last in the league in runs scored and first in double plays grounded into, that’s just the beginning of how unproductive the Miami lineup was in 2023. And things are not any better. Unless they can win 40 games by the scores of 1-0 or 2-1, the Marlins are destined for at least 90 losses.
Pittsburgh Pirates: UNDER 75.5 Wins
The Bucs surrendered nearly five runs per game in 2023, and added mediocre starters Martín Pérez and Marco Gonzales to a porous rotation. You’ll see lots of crooked numbers on the scoreboard for the Pirates’ opponents this season.
MLB Regular Season Wins Bands (DraftKings)
Wins bands are available from DraftKings. These are odds available for a range of wins for each MLB team. Odds are subject to change.
Los Angeles Dodgers: 101-106 Wins (+310)
The only concern with this market is that LA will obliterate the league and win 110+. It’s possible, with four former MVP winners on the roster.
Detroit Tigers: 72-77 Wins (+340)
The ’23 Tigers were 35-17 against their own division, largely because the Royals and White Sox were dreadful, and Cleveland was mediocre. Those trends won’t continue, and the Tigers lineup is garbage, with several key players that have yet to prove they can play an entire season at this level.
Tampa Bay Rays: 94 or More Wins (+450)
The Yankees will be worse, and the lucky Orioles will win fewer games. That means the Rays have an opportunity to capture 95+ wins again. Tampa and Baltimore were the only two teams in the AL East with winning records against their own division. Tampa’s lineup is deep and difficult for enemy pitchers, and their coaching staff always prepares arms for breakout seasons on the bump. We like this as our best bet pick for the wins bands market.
Baltimore Orioles: 88-93 Wins (+255)
The 2023 O’s had a projected wins total of 94 based on run differential. They actually won 101. That type of luck doesn’t repeat itself.
New York Yankees: 84 or Fewer Wins (+200)
The Bronx Bombers enter the season with an injured ace (Gerrit Cole). Oh, and Aaron Judge is also mending an injury (AGAIN). The Yanks won 84 games last year but should have won 78. This is a team with a one-dimensional offense and suspect pitching.
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