Best Stats That Impact MLB Starting Pitcher Props

The baseball season is poised to begin, which means fans of that sport are planning their betting strategy for 2024. MLB player props are among the most famous baseball bets, with sportsbooks offering odds on many statistical categories.

This baseball betting guide identifies the best stats for making your starting pitcher prop bets for the 2024 MLB season. We also recognize the most valuable tools for finding information to help your baseball betting.

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How to Make Your Starting Pitcher Prop Bets

Innings Pitched Per Start

Few things have changed more in modern baseball than the starting pitcher usage. There was a time when starters were responsible for an entire game. The starting pitcher was expected to start AND finish. Now, if a pitcher gets 12 outs, he receives a parade in the dugout from his teammates.

According to Vlad Sedler of FTN Fantasy, innings pitched per start is the most important factor when deciding on whether to put money on an SP. You don’t want to lay a wager on a pitcher only to see that player exit the game after 2-3 innings. For example, you need pitches and outs to get to your targeted strikeout over/under bet.

“The innings per start [stat] is important for evaluating the starters if you’re going to place props on strikeouts or outs recorded,” Sedler said in an interview with Gaming Today.

IP Per Start Leaders, 2023 MLB

• Sandy Alcántara, MIA … 6.58
• Logan Webb, SFG … 6.55
• Framber Valdez, HOU … 6.39
• Gerrit Cole, NYY … 6.33
• Zac Gallen, ARI … 6.18
• George Kirby, SEA … 6.14
• Shane Bieber, CLE … 6.10
• Brandon Woodruff, MIL … 6.09
• Mitch Keller, PIT … 6.07
• Pablo López, MIN … 6.06

Late Innings Pitched

Late innings pitched (or LIP) is a stat I use, and I’m surprised I haven’t seen it yet from the mainstream MLB sites. LIP is simply any inning a pitcher throws after the 6th inning. It’s a simple formula:

IP-(IP from 1st to 6th innings)

LIP tells us which pitchers are working late in a game. In modern baseball, any SP who toes the rubber after the 6th inning is a workhorse.

By looking at LIP, we learn Which pitchers have the stamina to go deep into a game and which managers trust their SP to work mid-late and late innings.

In 2023, the leaders in LIP were:

• Logan Webb, SFG … 26.1 IP
• Framber Valdez, HOU … 23.0
• Sandy Alcántara, MIA … 22.1
• Gerrit Cole, NYY … 18.2
• Chris Bassitt, TOR … 18.0
• George Kirby, SEA … 17.1
• Zac Gallen, ARI … 15.2
• Aaron Nola, PHI … 13.2
• Logan Gilbert, SEA … 13.1
• Kevin Gausman, TOR … 12.2

These pitchers, and any who emerge to pitch many innings after the 6th, are excellent choices for Pitcher Prop Bets, such as strikeouts.

Related Pages: World Series Odds | Best Baseball Betting Sites | MLB MVP Odds

Online Resources for MLB Pitcher Prop Bets

MLB StatCast & Baseball Savant

Official stats from MLB’s StatCast service. You’ll find everything from traditional stats like runs scored to how many times a pitcher threw to second base.

The most important stats to watch for starters are:

• Effectiveness of pitches (opponents’ hard-hit percentage, exBA, etc.)
• Usage of pitches (keep an eye on any changes by a pitcher of his repertoire; this could mean he is confident with a pitch, which may lead to more K’s)
• Movement on pitches (charts are available via the Illustrator tool)
• Swing and miss rate early, middle, late innings

FanGraphs

FanGraphs is a definitive resource for baseball fans who want to analyze player performance and gain access to predictive tools. Subscription is required for advanced stats, sorting tools, and more. Check out the 2023 Dodgers page for some of the fantastic data here.

Baseball Reference & Stathead

The granddaddy of all baseball stats sites, BB-Ref has several tools that you’ll find helpful. Each player and team can be sorted to show trending stats (how the SP has performed in his last 5 outings, etc.), or create your own tables of data using the Stathead tool, which requires a $8 per month subscription.

More Best Stats Betting Guides

We’ll soon have more NHL and NBA “Best Stats” guides here at Gaming Today. Keep an eye out for them in the future.

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