2024 Presidential Election Odds: Trump Second Favorite After Campaign Announcement

On Tuesday, Donald Trump announced he is running for president in 2024. The Trump campaign announcement comes after election deniers lost key races for the Republican Party. These losses combined with Ron DeSantis’ near-20-point victory in Florida’s gubernatorial race have framed DeSantis as a viable alternative to Trump. Unsurprisingly, he is Trump’s greatest threat and the favorite to take the White House in 2024, according to US presidential election odds.     

DraftKings’ 2024 presidential election betting board shows DeSantis with the shortest odds at +225 (implying a 31% probability). Trump follows at +300 (25% chance), and President Biden’s odds are set at +450 (18%).

Odds to Win 2024 US Presidential Election

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Why DeSantis is the Favorite in Presidential Election Odds  

Governor DeSantis has attracted national attention for a few reactionary stunts that appeal to the reactionary MAGA base. He flew migrants from Texas to Martha’s Vineyard in response to northeastern liberal opposition to hardline immigration policies. 

This stunt was popular among Republicans. A mid-September Spectrum News/Siena College Poll found that 87% of Republicans and 50% of Independents supported sending migrants to other states. Not only did DeSantis confirm his reactionary credentials, he also received support from key Independent voters, showing he can reach outside of his base.   

DeSantis did the same with COVID policies. In June 2022, DeSantis came out against administering the COVID vaccine to children. This came after the FDA approved two vaccines for children under five. DeSantis falsely claimed that toddlers and infants “are the people who have zero risk of getting anything.” He has framed the decision to vaccinate children against COVID-19 as an issue of choice. 

Downplaying COVID-19’s severity and casting doubt on the efficacy of masks were signature Trump moves. DeSantis’ skepticism about vaccine safety — despite hundreds of thousands of data points to confirm the shot’s safety — is an extension of anti-lockdown and anti-mask rhetoric that was popular when Trump did it.

However, DeSantis couches his conspiratorial beliefs in rhetoric about freedom of choice rather than blustery press conferences or tweet storms. With beliefs that conform to the reactionary part of the Republican base and a polish that appeals to Independents, DeSantis is an unsurprising favorite to challenge Trump.    

Presidential Election Odds Bound to Shift After Primaries

DraftKings’ presidential election pricing shows the odds in a general election scenario. However, the odds are not priced to include the primaries and party conventions that would put presidential candidates in play. 

A Morning Consult/Politico poll conducted from November 10-14 found that 47% of Republican voters would support Trump if the election were held the day they were surveyed. About 33% would support DeSantis, a seven-point increase from the same survey taken before the midterms.   

While DeSantis has made important gains in GOP primary polls, Trump still has the support of many Republican voters. If he wins the primary, he’s going to be the one running against President Biden.

DraftKings’ odds shouldn’t be taken as substitutes for polls. They should be taken as snapshots of what the betting market believes based on publicly available information. Odds can also reflect the amount of money on each candidate. All else equal, candidates with the most money on them will have lower odds, because sportsbooks constantly rebalance potential payouts. 

What the odds do reflect is the public belief that DeSantis is a formidable challenger to Trump and Biden. Since this belief is widely speculated and reported, it’s unsurprising to see this belief priced.      

US Presidential Election Odds FAQ