Johnny Avello left Napoli’s brick-oven pizzeria Wednesday afternoon in Hoboken, N.J., where he was attending a nearby conference, and raved about the square Sicilian slices he had just consumed.
“Oh, my God,” said the DraftKings sportsbook director. “Amazing. So good. Really, really great.”
It doesn’t even upset his stomach, too much, when I mention the Seattle Seahawks. Then again, the 69-year-old Avello, who formerly directed the Bally’s and Wynn sportsbooks, is a consummate professional.
“They just haven’t performed well. The Seahawks are having a rough time scoring. Russell Wilson just doesn’t seem to be the same Russell Wilson.”
On Tuesday, Nov. 23, DraftKings posted a look-ahead line (for games of the following week) of Pick’em for San Francisco’s tilt at Seattle on Sunday. Another shop even appeared to post Seattle at a look-ahead -1.5, according to VegasInsider.com.
Thursday, the 49ers were favored by 3.5 points.
“Three and a half seems too high,” said Avello. “Probably wouldn’t want to go past three, in a game like this between division foes. The 49ers probably deserve to be the favorite just based on what we’ve seen from Seattle recently.”
The Seahawks have lost six of their past seven games, scoring 17 or fewer points in five of them. They were shut out in Green Bay on Nov. 14.
“Sometimes things don’t work anymore, so it might be time for [coach] Pete Carroll to go away, start fresh,” said Avello. “Maybe we see Russell Wilson on another team? He did stick around, but … I know he wants to be on a contender.
Here’s a look at the Week 13 slate.
(Each team’s records, overall and ATS, are in parenthesis.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-3, 5-6) at Atlanta Falcons (5-6, 5-6)
NFL – Sun (12/5) @ 1 p.m. ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
FanDuel Line: Bucs -10.5, Total 50.5
Tampa Bay opened as a 9.5-point favorite and has attracted attention, typical of a Tom Bradly-led team.
“That’ll end up going higher,” said Avello, “the way they like to bet Tampa each and every week.”
The Falcons’ offense, behind quarterback Matt Ryan, is the NFL’s worst over their past three games, averaging a paltry 0.146 points per play. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, has averaged a league-best 0.447 over that span.
“Matty Ice, that’s a name he deserved at one time,” said Avello. “He doesn’t necessarily deserve that anymore. It’s probably time for that team to make a change, too. Ever since that second-half disaster in that Super Bowl, it has not been the same team.”
Ahead 28-3 in Super Bowl LI, over Brady and the Patriots, Ryan and Atlanta melted down notoriously and lost in overtime. Ryan is 0-6 in his career against Brady.
NFL · Sun (12/5) @ 1:00pm ET
| LA Chargers | at | CIN Bengals |
| Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio | ||
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Los Angeles Chargers (6-5, 5-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-4, 6-5)
NFL – Sun (12/5) @ 1 p.m. ET
Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Caesars Sportsbook Line: Bengals -3, Total 50.5
This spread has eked up from 1.5. Avello sounded nervous about that total and a likely quarterback duel between Justin Herbert of the Chargers and Joe Burrow of the Bengals.
The Chargers’ defense is the seventh-worst in the NFL (at 0.469 points per play) over their past three games. The Bengals’ offense is No. 2 in the league on the season (0.458), and it has scored at least 31 in five of its past six games.
“It cannot go any higher,” Avello says of this spread. “I’m sure these two quarterbacks want to show their stuff. Both are newer guys and they want to have bragging rights in the league.
“A tight, tough call. Somebody wins by three, that’s the way I see this game.”
NFL · Sun (12/5) @ 1:00pm ET
| NY Giants | at | MIA Dolphins |
| Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida | ||
New York Giants (4-7, 6-5) at Miami Dolphins (5-7, 6-5-1)
NFL – Sun (12/5) @ 1 p.m. ET
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Dolphins -4, Total 40.5
This line crossed three and even four, at certain outlets, which Avello saw as a stretch.
“I don’t think Miami deserves to be that much of a favorite over the Giants. I think it’ll come [down] a little. The Giants are another one of those teams … can they put a good week together?”
Miami’s average game this season is a 23-20 defeat, New York’s a 23-18 loss.
San Francisco 49ers (6-5, 5-6) at Seattle Seahawks (3-8, 5-6)
NFL – Sun (12/5) @ 4:25 p.m. ET
Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
49ers -3.5, Total 45.5
The Niners are clicking, with 0.482 points per play over their past three, that’s fourth in the league. Seattle’s defense checks in at 0.183, third worst in the NFL, over that stretch.
NFL · Sun (12/5) @ 4:05pm ET
| JAX Jaguars | at | LA Rams |
| SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California | ||
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9, 4-7) at Los Angeles Rams (7-4, 4-7)
NFL – Sun (12/5) @ 4:05 p.m. ET
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Rams -13, Total 48
Jacksonville owns the second-worst offense on the season, at 0.256 points per play. Over its past three? Even worse, at 0.232. Its defense is the league’s fourth-worst (0.480) in that span.
“These are professional athletes, and they do pop up with a good game once in a while,” Avello said of the woeful Jags. “Sometimes people will look at [an upset] and wonder, ‘How did that happen?’ Well, they’re capable of coming up with a big game, now and then.
“Humans have good days and bad days. Let’s say five or six Jacksonville players have a great game, offensive linemen do a good job, techniques are working. That’s when those teams can get a cover, or a win.”
Baltimore Ravens (8-3, 5-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-5-1, 4-7)
NFL – Sun (12/5) @ 4:25 p.m. ET
Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA
Ravens -4.5, Total 44
The Ravens scored 32 total points the past two weeks and won both games—at the Bears and at home against the Browns. They’ve tallied 59 total points in four of their past five games, not even averaging 15 points.
Quarterback Lamar Jackson had four passes intercepted last week, and Baltimore still beat hapless Cleveland. Throw four interceptions and still win the game?
“That means the other team is pretty bad,” said Avello. “Cleveland was incapable of moving the ball. Awful. That quarterback [Baker Mayfield] should stop doing TV commercials, start playing football.”
Is he a better thespian than quarterback? Avello laughed.
“As of late? Yes. Definitely.”
Jackson has 15 TDs and 12 picks on the season. Four of Baltimore’s past six foes have averaged fewer than 55 rushing yards a game.
Over their past three games, however, the Steelers’ defense has yielded 0.485 points per play, the second-worst figure over that span.
“Pittsburgh has just been a disaster,” said Avello. “But this could have more points than you might think.”
Denver Broncos (6-5, 6-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-4, 4-7)
NFL – Sun (12/5) @ 8:20 p.m. ET
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Chiefs -9.5, Total 47
This total has been cut by 2.5 points, which Avello attributed to division rivalry.
“Tradition,” he said. “When these teams play each other, they’re usually mediocre-scoring games. Denver is the kind of team that doesn’t want to go up and down the field, and I’m not sure Kansas City is that kind of team anymore.
“The Chiefs’ defense is certainly better, and they’ve won some close, low-scoring games.”
Over their past three games, the Chiefs have allowed foes only 10 points per game, second-lowest in football.
New England Patriots (8-4, 8-4) at Buffalo Bills (7-4, 6-4-1)
NFL – Mon (12/6) @ 8:15 p.m. ET
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
BetMGM Line: Bills -2.5, Total 42.5
Avello is a fan of Mac Jones, the Patriots’ rookie quarterback who has completed 70.3% of his attempts, third-best in the NFL.
“I didn’t think he’d have this much success this early. And here they are, up one game on the team that is supposed to win the division. This total has really plummeted [from 46], too.”
He owed that to New England’s recent defensive prowess, having yielded only 20 total points over its past three games. Opponents average a league-low 15.8 points on the season.
Jones, though, will be tested since Buffalo has kept opposing quarterbacks at a league-low 57.6% completion rate.
Gauging these two over their previous three games, this is the No. 1 offense (Patriots at 0.535) vs. No. 2 (Bills at 0.535).
“The Patriots have taken a lot of money in the future book, too,” said Avello. “They’re probably playing as well as anyone right now. But it’s not how you’re playing at the beginning or middle of the season, it’s how you’re playing at the end that matters.”
Also read: NFL Week 13 Totals: Big Number For Bengals-Chargers But ‘Over’ In Play
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