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Gaming Edge’s TL;DR
- Prediction markets enjoyed nearly 30% of all legal US sports betting volume during the World Cup.
- It was a sharp jump from 9% at the start of the year.
Prediction markets captured an estimated 27% of all legal US World Cup volume, according to H2 Gambling Capital.
That growth is notable because it shows more betting activity moving into products that sit outside the traditional state-by-state sportsbook model. It also adds pressure on major operators such as DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook as they weigh how to respond.
Fortune reported that Kalshi and Polymarket used the tournament to expand both visibility and trading volume, said H2 Gambling Capital Managing Director Ed Birkin.
“It’s pretty clear that prediction markets have had a very good World Cup.”
FanDuel Predicts reportedly struggling
Kalshi had more daily users on its phone app during the tournament than DraftKings and FanDuel, according to Apptopia. Kalshi also struck a late deal to appear on digital boards alongside the playing field in every game during the latter stages of the World Cup.
Polymarket also grew during the tournament, both on its international exchange and its new US platform. Still, user-compiled data on Dune Analytics indicated Kalshi logged more than twice Polymarket’s trading volume during the event.
The competitive concern is not just about marketing. Prediction markets have launched products that resemble traditional sportsbook offerings, including combo bets similar to parlays.
Bernstein analyst Ian Moore said the rise of these products could “put feet to the fire for these traditional sportsbooks to start offering a similar service.” At the same time, FanDuel’s stand-alone prediction market app has so far gained little traction, according to Apptopia data.
DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment stocks surged before the World Cup but slumped during the tournament, and both are down more than 25% on the year.
A growing threat?
Analysts see prediction markets as a growing competitive threat even if they are “less of a threat than some people make out,” as Birkin put it. He added that they are “definitely eating around the edges” and that “It’s a headwind for the sportsbooks.”
For players, the immediate takeaway is less about one tournament and more about market direction: more sports-related wagering products are competing for attention, and the lines between exchange-style event contracts and traditional sportsbook bets are getting harder to ignore.
The biggest open question is whether this World Cup surge holds after the tournament. It will also be worth watching whether traditional operators build out similar products and how ongoing challenges involving state regulators develop.
As the market shifts, players should pay close attention to product rules, eligibility standards, and responsible gambling habits before using any wagering platform.
Based on reporting by Nathaniel Popper, Chloe Cresswell and Bloomberg for Fortune.
