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The National Hockey League (NHL) just made a play no one saw coming. In a move that could reshape the relationship between sports leagues and prediction markets, the NHL has signed multiyear licensing deals with Kalshi and Polymarket.
This marks the first time a major US professional sports league has partnered with platforms that allow fans to trade on real-world outcomes—from who wins the Stanley Cup to which team captures the NBA or NFL championship.
These deals are significant. Both Kalshi and Polymarket are federally regulated under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), giving them a national footprint that sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel cannot match.
This allows their users to trade on sports outcomes in all 50 states, including California and Texas, where traditional sports betting remains prohibited.
How prediction markets revolutionize sports engagement
To understand why this is a big deal, it helps to know what prediction markets are. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket let users trade “yes” or “no” contracts on the outcome of specific events. Instead of betting $10 that the Florida Panthers will win the Stanley Cup, users buy a contract that might cost 60 cents if they think it will happen or 40 cents if they don’t.
If the outcome is correct, the contract settles at $1. This structure makes the experience closer to trading stocks than placing bets. It’s speculative, data-driven, and regulated by financial authorities rather than gaming commissions.
This distinction gives these platforms a legal edge, allowing them to operate in every state—even those that haven’t legalized sports betting. Recently, Kalshi expanded into the sports space with “sports parlays,” letting traders bundle multiple outcomes, similar to a sportsbook parlay. This addition made the NHL partnership feel almost inevitable.
NHL deal marks turning point for prediction markets
Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour didn’t downplay the importance of this move. In an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” he called it a “seminal moment” for prediction markets. For Mansour, partnering with a league like the NHL isn’t just about gaining access to official data or logos—it’s about validation.
“When a league like the NHL partners with us, it sends a clear signal that prediction markets are here to stay,” Mansour said. “We’ve built a regulated environment that ensures both customer protection and market integrity.”
That confidence has been central to Kalshi’s growth, even as the company faces lawsuits from state regulators who accuse it of running unlicensed gambling operations. Mansour’s response is straightforward: Kalshi isn’t gambling—it’s trading, and the federal government fully regulates it.
How the NHL wins with prediction market partnerships
So why take this leap now? For the NHL, the answer lies in opportunity and oversight. Keith Wachtel, the league’s president of business operations, told ESPN and CNBC that the NHL sees prediction markets as a way to engage fans who might not be typical bettors. These markets attract a diverse audience—investors, data enthusiasts, and even political junkies already active in forecasting spaces.
By partnering with Kalshi and Polymarket, the NHL gains exposure to a new demographic while maintaining control over how its branding is used.
“As a league, we’ll be able to work with them on what markets they include in their endeavors,” Wachtel explained. “That’s better for everyone involved—not just for the NHL but for all sports properties.”
Casino industry slams NHL’s prediction market move
Not everyone is thrilled about the deal. The American Gaming Association (AGA), the trade group representing casinos and sportsbooks, quickly labeled the NHL’s partnership “deeply concerning.” AGA President and CEO Bill Miller argued that prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are “backdoor gambling schemes masquerading as financial products,” warning that the platforms operate in defiance of state law and consumer protection standards.
“The move sends a troubling message,” Miller said in a statement. “No professional league should lend its brand to companies that fail to comply with established gaming regulations.”
Critics within the traditional sports betting industry share those concerns. They argue that prediction markets compete unfairly by bypassing state-level licensing and tax structures. For sportsbooks that have spent millions securing legal access in regulated states, this competition stings.
Still, both DraftKings and FanDuel are exploring ways to enter the prediction space themselves, suggesting they see the writing on the wall.
How NHL’s move could transform US sports betting
The NHL’s announcement could open the floodgates for other leagues to follow. While the NBA, NFL, and MLB declined to comment this week, insiders believe talks with prediction market operators are underway. Mansour hinted during his CNBC appearance that “more announcements” could come soon.
The appeal is clear. Prediction markets reach audiences that traditional sportsbooks can’t—especially in states that haven’t legalized betting. They also generate significant engagement data, which leagues can use to better understand fan behavior. For a business that thrives on attention, that insight is invaluable.
There’s also a broader cultural element at play. Prediction markets have gained traction by allowing users to trade on everything from election results to celebrity awards. By entering this ecosystem, the NHL positions itself not just as a sports brand but as part of the wider conversation about real-time event forecasting.
NHL leads the way in prediction market innovation
Whether this move proves revolutionary or risky remains to be seen. Lawsuits against Kalshi and Polymarket are ongoing, and regulators from several states continue to question whether these markets blur the line between trading and gambling. Still, the NHL’s decision to jump in suggests growing confidence in the model’s legitimacy.
For fans, it could mean a fresh, data-fueled way to interact with their favorite sport. For leagues, it’s a test of how far innovation can stretch without breaking the traditional frameworks that keep sports betting regulated and secure. One thing is clear: The puck has dropped on a new era for prediction markets. The NHL took the first shot, and the sports world will be watching closely to see where it goes from here.
