UFC 271 Odds, Betting Picks, Props: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 Tops Card

Live from the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas, we have a rematch for the middleweight title headlining UFC 271, set for Saturday, Feb. 12. In October 2019, Israel Adesanya won the belt away from Robert Whittaker. Since then, Adesanya has become the company’s biggest PPV star while successfully defending his title three times.

Early odds at DraftKings Sportsbook have Adesanya as a -265 favorite for this bout. This price could be a miscalculation.

UFC 271 Odds, Analysis & Picks

Israel Adesanya (-265) vs. Robert Whittaker (+215) — odds provided by DraftKings

Adesanya keys to victory: As dominant as any fighter in the UFC today, Adesanya owns most striking exchanges regardless of his opponent. This is a particularly important trait against Whittaker, no slouch as a striker himself. Adesanya wants to keep this fight standing, keeping his opponent in perfect range for a wide variety of punches, elbows, and kicks.

Adesanya Strengths
+Kickboxing
+Power
+Volume Striking

Adesanya Weaknesses
-Grappling
-Getting up after being taken down

Whittaker keys to victory: Whittaker looked fantastic against Darren Till, Jared Cannonier, and Kelvin Gastelum. He and his teammate, Jacob Malkoun, have obviously been practicing their wrestling, and it has been paying dividends. This is his path to victory. Whittaker can strike with Adesanya but not for long. He needs to land an early takedown or two in order to tire Adesanya out.

Whittaker Strengths
+Grappling/Takedowns
+Leg Kicks

Whittaker Weaknesses
-Power
-Volume Striking

Adesanya vs. Whittaker Best Bets

Whittaker has looked rejuvenated since his loss to Adesanya in 2019, his only loss since 2014 (13 fights). Whittaker introducing wrestling to his game changes the way he fights this time out. This doesn’t necessarily mean Whittaker wins the rematch, but expect him to get a takedown.

Adesanya’s dangerous striking brutally knocked Whittaker out in the first fight. If Adesanya has takedowns to worry about, perhaps his striking is negated some.

Either way, I will be backing Whittaker as the sizeable underdog here, because Adesanya’s takedown defense has been exposed by Jan Blachowicz. If Whittaker lands at least three takedowns, he probably gets a decision nod.

UFC 271 pick: Fight goes to decision +116 | Whittaker wins by decision +420 (FanDuel)

Derrick Lewis (-200) vs Tai Tuivasa (+165) — odds provided by BetMGM

Coming off of a win as an underdog against Chris Daukaus, Derrick Lewis turns around immediately to fight Tai Tuivasa in Lewis’ hometown of Houston. Tuivasa is a pretty big underdog at +155 in this heavyweight matchup, which is at least a little surprising. I would’ve predicted Tuivasa as a betting favorite if he fought Daukaus.

Lewis on Ariel Helwani’s January 5 podcast, The MMA Hour, said he never wanted to fight again in Houston, where he said he felt added pressure against Ciryl Gane, a fight he lost embarrassingly (he landed just 16 strikes). A week later, though, this fight against Tuivasa was announced.

The curious decision to jump back into Houston against an up-and-comer like Tuivasa is a mistake. Back Tuivasa here, as the line will move his way toward fight week.

 UFC 271 Picks: Tuivasa ML +165 | Fight Starts Round 2 +105 (PointsBet)

Derek Brunson (+146) vs. Jared Cannonier (-174) — odds provided by FanDuel

Jared Cannonier faces off against Derek Brunson in what will probably be the co-main event. Cannonier used to fight at light heavyweight, but he has found his groove since his relocation to middleweight. In this division, he has four wins in his last five, including dominant victories over Kelvin Gastelum, Anderson Silva, and Jack Hermansson.

Brunson has been a cash cow for me as a huge underdog to Kevin Holland and Darren Till. He is again an underdog here but not as large as he should be. Brunson chases takedowns but really only lands them against guys with poor takedown defense. He will have a much tougher time finding success here against Cannonier.

UFC 271 Pick: Cannonier ML -160 (DraftKings)

Lewis/Tuivasa Starts round 2 +105 (PointsBet)

Bet as listed above. These two behemoths have unconscionable power. This fight screams violence throughout. In order for this bet to hit, Tuivasa needs to show some form of patience.

Fourteen of Lewis’ last 15 fights have hit the second round. In fights Tuivasa has won, he has mostly finished his opponents in the first round. However, Tuivasa has never been an underdog in those fights.

All of Tuivasa’s losses have come in the second round or by decision. These two fighters’ average fight time is 9:29 for Lewis and 6:30 for Tuivasa.

This prop should not be plus-money.

Kyler Phillips Wins By Submission +550 (BetMGM)

BetMGM is offering a gift of a line on his moneyline -350. Most other sportsbooks have Kyler Phillips’ moneyline well over -400. I don’t bet moneylines this high, but if you are looking for a BetMGM parlay builder, this is it.

Phillips is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who can submit just about anyone. His opponent is not a stellar grappler, and most of his losses have come by submission. Overall, Marcelo Rojo is 16-7, with four losses coming by submission.

Always shop around the betting market for the best odds for your wagers.