NFL MVP Odds: Patrick Mahomes, Quarterbacks Dominate NFL MVP Betting Boards

NFL MVP odds tend to favor quarterbacks, especially those on teams expected to contend for the Super Bowl. It is also not uncommon for the reigning NFL MVP, i.e. Patrick Mahomes, to open as the favorite and remain at the top of betting boards until someone plays better.

But Mahomes is not alone at the top. Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts are not far behind.

Once the season starts and games get played, contenders will rise and fall with each passing week. So, return to this page often to stay updated on the latest NFL MVP odds!

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NFL MVP Odds 2023: Quarterbacks Populate Top of Betting Boards

Here are the odds of winning the NFL MVP odds at some of the top sportsbook apps in the country (odds current as of June 7):

Since quarterbacks have a better chance to win than every other position, it is not surprising to see a quartet of QBs, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Jalen Hurts, atop most betting boards. All three are young players in their prime on teams that won 12+ games last season.

Two made it to the AFC Conference title game, and one won the Super Bowl. Since the rosters for all three are relatively intact, there is no reason to think they’ll be less competitive in 2023. But there are several players ready to step up should one of them falter:

• Justin Herbert has been one of the better young quarterbacks in the league since making his debut a couple of seasons ago. He could have his best season yet in 2023 with the additions to the roster the Chargers made in the offseason.
• Jalen Hurts exploded onto the scene last year, and after getting his mega-contract in the offseason, he’ll be looking to prove the Eagles were right to do so.
• Lamar Jackson is one of the most dynamic playmakers in the NFL. If he and Odell Beckham Jr. can get on the same page early in the season, we could see his best season yet—if he can stay healthy.
• Aaron Rodgers is no stranger to NFL MVP conversations. That was not the case during his last season with the Packers. But with the talent at his disposal in New York, this could be a bounce-back season of epic proportions for Rodgers and the Yets.

It would not be shocking if this season’s NFL MVP race is one of the more competitive in recent years. Be sure to check back with this page throughout the season and off-season for the latest NFL MVP odds!

Odds of Winning NFL MVP: Best Bets

It is not hard to figure out who the best bets are (odds via FanDuel), Patrick Mahomes (+700), Josh Allen (+700), and Joe Burrow (+700). All three are quarterbacks for Super Bowl 58 contenders and have solid rosters to work with. Their primary problem? Expectations. Since they are considered elite, fans expect more from them.

Voters often love to see a contender emerge from an unexpected team. If they produce– excellent, their team wins, and they remain in MVP conversations. But if they don’t play well…it will take more than one bad game to cause their NFL MVP odds to slip down oddsboards.

But if/when they have a bad game or two, one of these players could see their odds move up betting boards. For now, these are our value picks (bets we feel have a better chance of paying off than their odds indicate).

NFL MVP Odds 2023: Value Picks

Tua Tagovailoa +2200 (Caesars)

He showed flashes of his potential last season when he was healthy. With the tools at his disposal, the potential for an MVP-caliber season is there, but the trick will be keeping him healthy and on the field.

Dak Prescott +2500 (Caesars)

Generating impressive stat lines has not been an issue for Prescott with the tools at his disposal in Dallas. But he needs to do a better job protecting the ball to have a shot at MVP.

Geno Smith +3500 (DraftKings)

If Smith were a more established name, his odds would not be as high as they are after the season he had last year. But since he has been a career backup, bettors might want him to prove last season was not a fluke before putting their money down.

NFL MVP Odds: Longshots

These players need quite a few things to go right even to enter the conversation, let alone win NFL MVP. But if they can elevate their play and make the most of the tools at their disposal, they could become NFL MVP contenders and possibly even win.

Russell Wilson +5000 (Caesars)

His season was a disaster in 2022. But with the tools surrounding him and new head coach Sean Payton, it is not unreasonable to think he could be better in 2023.

Kirk Cousins +5000 (BetMGM)

Cousins generates great stat lines yearly, but Cousins rarely gets mentioned in NFL MVP conversations. Could this season be the year he does get mentioned? Maybe…

Brock Purdy +7500 (DraftKings)

Had he played for an entire season, like in the five he did start, he would have won it last year. Assuming he remains in the QB1 role this season, he’ll have a chance to prove himself.

Non-quarterbacks that bettors should keep an eye on include (odds via DraftKings):

• Christian McCaffrey +8000
• Justin Jefferson +10000
• Tyreek Hill +10000
• Derrick Henry +15000
• Micah Parsons +15000
• Stefon Diggs +15000
• Odell Beckham Jr. +25000

What Impacts NFL MVP Odds?

Let’s take a look at the various things that can impact NFL MVP odds:

• Significant injuries: There is no sense in betting on Dak Prescott if he misses the first six weeks of the season (or more) with an injury.
• Trades: One player getting traded to or away from a team will probably not impact another player’s odds (i.e., the Chiefs trading Tyreek Hill did not impact Patrick Mahomes odds last season). But Aaron Rodgers getting traded from the Packers to the Jets influenced his odds.
• Losses: One or two losses will not necessarily impact a player’s NFL MVP odds. But multiple losses, especially when a player performs poorly, will impact odds.
• The Betting Public: If the public gets heavily behind one player, sportsbooks will shift their odds to make them less appealing to bettors. Books may also shorten another player’s odds to encourage betting on him.
• Sharp bettors getting heavily behind a player can also impact odds.

How To Bet On NFL MVP Odds

If you’re looking to bet on NFL MVP odds this year, it’s a perfect time to take advantage of amazing limited-time welcome offers available at sportsbooks today. Add more than one sports betting app to your playbook so you can line shop for the most competitive NFL: MVP odds.

Choose Your Online Sportsbook

Most US states with legal online sports betting put multiple mobile sports betting apps at your fingertips. The welcome bonuses, as well as the NFL MVP prices, differ from sportsbook to sportsbook.

Check out Gaming Today for comprehensive coverage of which sports betting apps operate in your state. Once you’ve chosen a sportsbook, you must provide proof of age and identity to register for a new account. Remember to enter the promo code!

Make Your First Deposit

Once the sportsbook verifies your account details, you can deposit funds and start wagering on games, NFL MVP odds, etc.

Navigate to the cashier at your chosen sportsbook for a display of the different deposit options. Some of the most reliable deposit methods include PayPal, Play+, debit/credit cards, and ACH/eCheck.

Make Your First Bet

NFL MVP odds will be among the more popular NFL futures markets at any sportsbook’s main lobby. However, legal online sportsbooks offer myriad ways to bet on NFL futures. You may have to search a bit if you are looking for a more specific wager.

Remember, most welcome bonuses are only for the first wager, so choose wisely!

Cashing Out

Suppose your NFL MVP bet cashes in; congratulations! You can reinvest your winnings into other bets, but if you are ready to cash out, all sportsbooks will offer you several different options.

PayPal, ACH/eCheck, and Play+ represent some of the fastest ways to cash out when your NFL MVP wager wins.

Where Can I Bet On NFL MVP Odds?

Every mobile sports betting app in the US will carry NFL MVP odds. Your ability to bet will depend on which state you live in and if your state has legalized sports betting. The following are some of our favorite sportsbook apps:

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• NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds 2023: Texans LB Will Anderson Jr. the Clear Favorite
• NFL Comeback Player Of The Year Odds 2023: Early Odds Favor Damar Hamlin

How To Read NFL MVP Odds

Bettors can find NFL MVP odds throughout the year at the online sportsbooks available in their state. Prices will often fluctuate throughout the year based on injuries, how a player/team is playing, roster additions/subtractions, etc.

As for how to read those odds, let’s look at the NFL MVP odds for three players at DraftKings (as of June 7):

• Patrick Mahomes (+700)
• Tua Tagovailoa (+2000)
• Tyreek Hill (+10000).

Regarding plus money odds (like the above), bettors must risk $100 to win the listed number. So, a $100 bet on Patrick Mahomes would result in an $800 payday, your stake plus $700 in winnings. At those odds, he has an implied probability of 12.5% (you can calculate implied probability using our calculator).

A $100 bet on Tua would result in a $2100 payday, your stake plus $2000 in winnings. His implied probability is 4.76%. But a $100 wager on Tyreek Hill would result in a $10,100 payday, your stake plus $10,000 in winnings.

Strategies For NFL MVP Odds Betting

Everyone has their own betting strategy. Some will have more detailed, intricate plans than others, and some may have no real plan— which is okay. But the basis of every strategy should involve a few basic things:

• Set limits and stick to them.
• Stay calm and do not overreact to anything.
• Listen to your friends and the ‘experts’ all you want, but always do your own homework (which is a must).
• If you are going to be drinking, place your bets first. That way, you can make decisions with a clear head/mind.
• Do not bet money you do not have or cannot afford to lose.

As for strategies specific to NFL MVP odds, there are different avenues you can take, but they all involve one thing—you must do your homework. If you do not, you will not find hidden gems (i.e., Matt Ryan in 2016, Cam Newton in 2015, etc.).

If you want to roll the dice on someone with longer odds, you will need as much knowledge as possible to make an informed decision.

Fading the public can be another strategy. When the public starts to bet heavily on one player, sportsbooks will adjust the odds to discourage further bets on that player and encourage betting on someone else. It is how they protect themselves from heavy losses.

But it can also be how you hit a bigger payday.

Then there is the safe route—betting on the favorite. Patrick Mahomes was one of the favorites when the 2022 NFL MVP odds opened. No one would have faulted you for betting on him, and he won. But five of the last eight winners opened with +3000 odds or longer.

NFL MVPs always come from one of the better teams in the NFL. Voters tend to equate value with wins, and since quarterbacks get so much credit when teams win, they tend to populate the top of NFL MVP betting boards.

NFL MVP Odds: History

Quarterbacks are on a ten-year winning streak but have dominated the award since its inception in 1957. Since then, quarterbacks have won 45 MVPs and 18 running backs (including halfbacks and fullbacks). One kicker and two defenders have won (Mark Mosely, 1982).

There was no consensus winner on two occasions, so the AP awarded NFL MVP honors to two players, Brett Favre and Barry Sanders in 1997 and Peyton Manning and Steve McNair in 2003.

In the last 25 seasons, one MVP came from a team with fewer than ten wins; Barry Sanders tied with Brett Favre for NFL MVP in 1997. While Favre’s Packers won 13 games and were the No. 2 seed in the NFC, Sanders’ Lions were 9-7 and a wildcard team (No. 5 seed).

The winner came from a No. 1 playoff seed for the last five seasons. But in the previous 25 years, only 15 came from No. 1 seeds. Four came from wild card teams. Only the Lions in ’97 had fewer than ten wins; the average number of wins for the team of the winner for the last 25 seasons is 13.

The table is a list of winners with their preseason betting odds (via SportsOddsHistory.com if available) for the last 25 seasons:

NFL MVP Betting Odds FAQs