NFL MVP odds are bound to shift in the early weeks of the season as players work to find a rhythm with their teams and win games. Several players appear to be in midseason form three weeks in, while others have a lot of work to do. But the season is young—no one is out of the race yet.
Several players had performances in Week 3 that impacted their odds of winning NFL MVP. However, we are only three weeks into the season. While there are some apparent frontrunners, there is plenty of time for a new contender to emerge.
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Latest NFL MVP Odds: QBs Still Dominate The Top Of Oddsboards
Since technically anyone can win MVP, sportsbooks will post NFL MVP odds for wide receivers, running backs, the occasional defensive player, a handful of tight ends, and, of course, quarterbacks. What players are listed will vary from one sportsbook to another, but there is one thing that will be the same at most (if not all) sportsbooks.
Quarterbacks will populate the top of betting boards.
That’s not hard to understand, considering QBs are on a nine-year NFL MVP winning streak. But some sportsbooks have half of the league’s starting quarterbacks listed before their first non-QB.
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Josh Allen’s NFL MVP Odds Shorten Despite Bills Losing To Dolphins
Josh Allen has been playing like someone destined to win NFL MVP this season. That continued on Sunday when he went 42-63 for 400 yards and two touchdowns in a 21-19 loss to the Dolphins. You might think the loss might lead to his NFL MVP odds getting longer, but instead, they got a little shorter.
Allen had an incredible day despite the loss. He set a new personal record with 42 completions and got the game off to a solid start with 11 consecutive completions. However, his fumble did lead to a Miami touchdown. But Allen leading the way in the run game is not a good sign for the Bills’ offense. Doing so gives him another chance to add to his value and build an even better case for NFL MVP.
However, with every run, the possibility of him getting injured increases.
He’ll get another chance to add to his resume this week when he and the Bills travel to Baltimore to face the Ravens in what could become a shootout between two of the leading MVP candidates, Allen and Ravens QB Lamar Jackson.
NFL MVP Odds: Young Talent Continues To Rise In Week 3
NFL MVP candidates don’t necessarily need a good back story like Comeback Player of the Year candidates. Still, voters do like to give credit where it is due, whether a player is a veteran expected to excel or a surprising youngster.
While all eyes are going to be on guys like Josh Allen, Patrick Mahoes, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady, several young quarterbacks had standout performances in Week 3:
- Trevor Lawrence got the job done against a good Chargers team, winning in dominant fashion, 38-10; Lawrence went 28-39 for 262 yards and three touchdowns.
- Tua Tagovailoa didn’t post MVP-type numbers against the Buffalo Bills, but he got what mattered most against the Super Bowl betting favorite—the win.
- Lamar Jackson got the job done once again on the ground and threw the air for the Ravens this week, going 18-29 for 218 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception, along with another 107 yards and a touchdown on the ground (Ravens won, 37-26 over the Patriots).
- Another week, another strong game from Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts. Hurts went 22-35 for 340 yards and three touchdowns in Philly’s 24-8 win over the Commanders.
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Top Running Back, Wide Receivers, and Tight Ends
Adrian Peterson was the last non-quarterback to win NFL MVP when he won it in 2013. A wide receiver has never won, nor has a tight end. Running backs have won it 18 times, including the first two awards in 1957 and ’58 (Jim Brown).
With the current state of the NFL game, it will take an incredible season for a running back, wide receiver, or tight end to win NFL MVP honors. The rules favor the offense and protect quarterbacks, making it easier for them to generate the kind of odds that garner MVP attention.
But there are some extraordinary talents at running back, wide receiver, and tight end in the NFL (additional players listed at most sportsbooks):
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Will A Defensive Player Ever Win Again?
It is not unusual for a defensive player to be in NFL MVP conversations, but they rarely (if ever) become a serious part of it. There have been two NFL MVPs from the defensive side of the ball, Vikings tackle Alan Page in ’71 and Giants linebacker Lawrence Taylor in ’86.
With the focus the NFL has placed on scoring and offensive play, it will take a fantastic season for a defender to win. But if one is going to have such a season, it will probably be one of these guys (additional defensive players listed at some sportsbooks):
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NFL MVP Odds: Movers and Shakers
Several players saw their odds shift in the wake of their Week 3 performance; some got shorter while others got longer. The following are some of the more notable players whose odds moved one way or the other (odds via BetMGM):
Josh Allen +300 to +275
It’s not a big difference, but it is notable since it occurred despite the Bills losing to Miami. It just goes to show how respected Allen and his game are. But a loss to the Ravens this week could result in his odds moving the other way.
Jalen Hurts +800 to +700
The numbers do not lie, and Hurts is putting up some crazy numbers so far this season. But he’s only done so against lesser teams so far. However, the most formidable defense the Eagles will face this season belongs to Dallas. Otherwise, the competition is not impressive, leaving him no room for error.
Tua Tagovailoa +1800 to +1400
It wasn’t a solid statistical performance for Tua in Week 3, but it was still an important one for his MVP campaign—a big win over one of the best teams in the NFL.
Tom Brady +1800 to +3000
Brady will forever be known as the GOAT, but the goat can’t seem to get his offense in the end zone more than once a game.
Justin Herbert +1000 to +1400
It was one thing to lose a close game to a team like the Chiefs, but to get blown out by the Jaguars? MVPs do not get blown out by a team like Jacksonville.
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NFL MVP Odds: Betting Analysis
Since 2009 only three preseason favorites have gone on to win. Seven winners since ’09 had preseason odds of +3000 or higher; Matt Ryan had the highest at +7500 in 2016. So, it is worth looking at guys a little further down oddsboards. A few things will have to work out in their favor for these guys to have a shot. They are worth taking a look at before you bet:
It may feel hard to believe that the Jaguars have a legit MVP contender on the roster. But Lawrence is starting to live up to his draft hype. Should that continue and the Jags continue to win games, his name will shoot up oddsboards faster than Tyreek Hill running a post pattern.
One bad game is all it will take for Tua to fall by the wayside, but if that game never comes, you’re going to wish you put money down on him while his odds were still north of +1500.
Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, or Tom Brady
All three are better than they have played so far this season. Maybe their talent is finally starting to decline, or perhaps they are setting us up for the kind of turnaround that will force voters to name one of them MVP. As soon as they start playing better, their odds will get shorter.
Otherwise, your best bets are to go with one of the leading contenders. Josh Allen has been playing well, and all eyes will be on him throughout the season– which could be good and bad (since no misstep will get overlooked). With the numbers Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts are putting up, no one would fault you for putting money on either of them, too.
NFL MVP History
Quarterbacks are on a nine-year winning streak but have dominated the award since its inception in 1957. Since then, quarterbacks have won 45 MVPs and 18 running backs (including halfbacks and fullbacks). One kicker has won (Mark Mosely, 1982), and two defenders have.
There was no consensus winner on two occasions, so the AP awarded NFL MVP honors to two players, Brett Favre and Barry Sanders in 1997 and Peyton Manning and Steve McNair in 2003.
In the last 25 seasons, one MVP came from a team with fewer than ten wins; Barry Sanders tied with Brett Favre for NFL MVP in 1997. While Favre’s Packers won 13 games and were the No. 2 seed in the NFC, Sanders’ Lions were 9-7 and a wildcard team (No. 5 seed).
The winner came from a No. 1 playoff seed for the last five seasons. But in the previous 25 years, 15 came from No. 1 seeds. Four came from wild card teams. Only the Lions in ’97 had fewer than ten wins; the average number of wins for the team of the winner for the last 25 seasons is 13.
The table is a list of winners with their preseason betting odds (via SportsOddsHistory.com if available) for the last 25 seasons:
|Year||Player||Position||Team||Betting Odds (Prior To Start Of Season)|
|2021||Aaron Rodgers||QB||Green Bay Packers||+1100|
|2020||Aaron Rodgers||QB||Green Bay Packers||+3000|
|2019||Lamar Jackson||QB||Baltimore Ravens||+4000|
|2018||Patrick Mahomes||QB||Kansas City Chiefs||+3525|
|2017||Tom Brady||QB||New England Patriots||+385|
|2016||Matt Ryan||QB||Atlanta Falcons||+7500|
|2015||Cam Newton||QB||Carolina Panthers||+5200|
|2014||Aaron Rodgers||QB||Green Bay Packers||+600|
|2013||Peyton Manning||QB||Denver Broncos||+600|
|2012||Adrian Peterson||RB||Minnesota Vikings||+4000|
|2011||Aaron Rodgers||QB||Green Bay Packers||+400|
|2010||Tom Brady||QB||New England Patriots||+800|
|2009||Peyton Manning||QB||Indianapolis Colts||+500|
|2008||Peyton Manning||QB||Indianapolis Colts|
|2007||Tom Brady||QB||New England Patriots|
|2006||LaDainian Tomlinson||RB||San Diego Chargers|
|2005||Shaun Alexander||RB||Seattle Seahawks|
|2004||Peyton Manning||QB||Indianapolis Colts||+600|
|2003||Steve McNair||QB||Tennessee Titans|
|2003||Peyton Manning||QB||Indianapolis Colts|
|2002||Rich Gannon||QB||Oakland Raiders|
|2001||Kurt Warner||QB||St. Louis Rams|
|2000||Marshall Faulk||RB||St. Louis Rams|
|1999||Kurt Warner||QB||St. Louis Rams|
|1998||Terrell Davis||RB||Denver Broncos|
|1997||Barry Sanders||RB||Detroit Lions|
Best Sportsbooks For NFL MVP Odds
Any sportsbooks looking to stay in business are going to have odds posted for the NFL MVP. Some will, of course, be better than others. The following are the current NFL MVP betting odds (as of June 3) for a few of the more highly-regarded online sportsbooks:
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Since the odds for NFL MVP are competitive, bettors may want to consider which welcome bonus they want to take advantage of when deciding which book to bet with. Deposit bonuses are good for high-rollers who can leverage the playthrough requirements. Risk-free bets are good for bettors who can afford a big wager upfront but don’t want to commit to large ongoing wagers.
On this shortlist, there’s something for everyone. The following are what the sportsbooks listed in the above table are offering:
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Where To Find NFL MVP Odds
If the sportsbook you are on does not have NFL MVP odds posted, you may want to reconsider betting with them. The NFL is the biggest game in town and the regular season MVP is its biggest reward. But you can only bet if you are physically located in a state that has legalized and launched sports betting:
- New York
- New Jersey
- West Virginia
- New Hampshire
- Rhode Island
There are also some states where you can bet in-person at retail sportsbooks. These include:
NFL MVP Odds – The Favorites
When the opening odds for the NFL MVP are posted, they often reflect how the previous MVP race played out. The latest winner will often have the best odds or his odds will be among the best. Following him will be the usual contenders and then those who could win but are somewhat of a longshot.
Once the season gets underway, the odds will often reflect how people are playing. It may take some time for someone to rise or fall. But the odds will reflect who the best and most valuable players in the NFL are.
Odds will vary from one sportsbook to the next. The current top five contenders are as follows:
- Patrick Mahomes
- Josh Allen
- Jalen Hurts
- Lamar Jackson
- Tua Tagovailoa
NFL MVP Futures Betting
Futures lines of all types are set months in advance. Before the season starts, sportsbooks need to have the end-of-season wagers ready to go. Some want to guess how their seasons will end. Sportsbooks have to be prepared for those bettors since those bettors are often high-rollers and professional bettors. (There are many amateurs too, but they’re wrong often enough that their wagers are free money.)
The odds change throughout the season as sportsbooks see how players perform. Sportsbooks can also change odds in response to how much money is going toward each player.
Bettors can wager on who will win the MVP award at the end of the season. But bettors will eventually notice player props, too. Bettors will also find team futures, including who will win the Super Bowl. By the time the NFL season begins, there will be many types of futures to bet on.
Super Bowl Odds For MVP 2023
Super Bowl MVP odds are a little different from regular-season MVP odds. Super Bowl MVP predictions factor the teams that will make it to the Super Bowl in. The Super Bowl MVP award almost always comes from the winning team, so bettors can see these odds go negative depending on the favorite team.
When the playoffs got underway last season, Cooper Kupp had +2200 odds to win Super Bowl 56 MVP honors while Aaron Rodgers opened as the favorite at +475.
How To Bet On The NFL MVP
To some extent, betting on the NFL MVP can be easy. If in-season, the NFL is usually featured prominently. However, out of season, how to bet on the NFL is not always as clear. All sportsbooks have NFL MVP lines at all times, but they can be tedious to find in the months before the NFL season.
Bettors can go to the football section and select the player futures lines. The player futures include MVP awards and other performance-based wagers. If the sportsbook has a bettor’s desired lines, then bettors can register with that sportsbook. Bettors just have to click the signup option, enter their personal details, and make their first deposits.
However, bettors shouldn’t miss the section to enter their promo codes when they’re signing up. It’s usually a text box in registration in the first or last signup step.
Once bettors register their accounts and deposit funds, they can begin betting. Bettors just have to select the odds they want to wager on, then enter the amount of money they want to wager. After that, bettors’ teams have to come through for them.
Additional NFL Betting Markets
You can see the latest Super Bowl odds for all 32 teams on our Super Bowl 57 odds page. If you are interested in award winners or player prop markets, the following pages may interest you:
- NFL Coach of the Year odds
- Comeback Player of the Year odds
- NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds.
- Offensive Player of the Year odds
- Most passing yards prop
- Most rushing yards prop
- Most receiving yards prop
- Most receiving yards by a rookie prop
- Coach of the Year
- Offensive Rookie of the Year
- Defensive Rookie of the Year
- Each NFL Division: AFC South, AFC North, AFC West, AFC East, NFC South, NFC East, NFC West, and the NFC North
- Conference Championships: AFC Championship, NFC Championship,
You can find odds for the week’s games during the season on our NFL odds page.
NFL MVP Betting Odds FAQs
50 sports journalists and broadcasters. These are some of the best people to vote for two reasons. They’re not associated with the NFL, so they have some independence. Second, they’re subject matter experts since they cover the NFL throughout the season.
The NFL MVP is announced during the NFL Honors, an awards show held the night before the Super Bowl in the host city. Super Bowl 57 is scheduled for February 12, 2023, at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
There are a few places to get Vegas odds. Several Vegas casinos have sportsbook apps out now. So, bettors can download several Vegas casinos’ sportsbook apps from the app store or from the sportsbook’s website. Googling them is a good last resort, too.
Yes. It’s an authorized bet type in every state that has legalized sports betting. The rules are clear, so states are comfortable allowing sports betting. But sportsbooks know how to set odds on clear events like NFL awards. Those two factors together make NFL MVP legal and expected.
Sportsbooks set their own odds. Odds makers are experienced with the sports they set odds on. So, the NFL odds makers know how to set odds on awards. Odds are also influenced by journalists’ speculation and bettors’ money. Odds makers adjust to these forces to set the odds on NFL MVP contests.
Several months in advance. Once NFL MVP futures odds are set, bettors can get those bets in. Regular season MVP odds are available five to six months out. At the sportsbooks we listed above, they’ve been available since March. But Super Bowl MVP odds come later as the Super Bowl teams narrow down.
Washington placekicker Mark Moseley won NFL MVP for the 1982 season. No sportsbook has listed a punter or placekicker on their NFL MVP oddsboard.